Also, another huge factor - female voter turnout, they will likely be firmly behind Raje.
Indian Political Discussion
- Thread starter Parul
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Also, another huge factor - female voter turnout, they will likely be firmly behind Raje.
Thanks for the informational inputs. I, myself, try to read / view as much as MSM as possible in order to gain an insight, given the lack of any other primary sources on Rajasthan but also the other states polling.
I've just finished viewing an election analysis on TV-18 hosted by Bhupendra Chaube featuring Surjeet Bhalla among others ( I didn't keep track of their names & have forgotten them. I've never seen them on TV before) While Bhalla was bravely trying to defend the BJP, the others were near unanimous in their declaration of the Rajasthan polls as favouring the Congress.
Long short analysis -
While in MP & CG, there's no personal bias against the CM, out here, Raje is seen as definitely unpopular. Bhalla claimed it's overhyped & the same stories were doing the rounds in 2013/14.Yet Raje won.
In any election, 50% of the electorate is committed to vote for one party or another. It's the balance 50% which swing the elections. These mostly belong to the economically deprived sections namely the SC, ST, OBC, EBC, MBC & the minorities. In Rajasthan as with the other two States these sections normally vote Congress.
Finally, were these elections conducted in Rajasthan in September, the win ratio for the Congress would have been 2/3 rds. What the Modi / Shah duo have done is arrest this decline considerably. Another interesting tidbit - when most of those polled were asked how would they have voted if the central elections were to be held simultaneously, they were near unanimous in their verdict - that they'd vote Modi for the central elections but Congress in the state elections.
If this is true, it harks back to the IG era when the electorate voted differently in state & central elections.
While the points, you've made are valid, I, personally think, in case of Rajasthan, it's too little too late.
But let's wait for Dec 11. Same time in two days we'd know the verdict.
So Congress is winning comfortably in Rajasthan and Chattisgarh, while in MP, they are neck and neck with the BJP.
Congress has very good leaders. It needs to get rid of opportunistic *censored*s, and the defiling done by the Gandhi family as its personal fiefdom.
The Congress has better state leaders than BJP, but the Gandhi family has to go.
I remember in 2003, it was 3-0 in favour of the BJP, which prompted Pramod Mahajan to convince Advani / Vajpayee that this was a wave in favour of the BJP. Vajpayee brought the elections forward by a few months, launched India Shining & lost the elections.
Let's see how Modi takes this one or for that matter RaGa takes it.
Modi's influence at the Centre is still strong. Obviously no longer as strong as before.
But the problem for this govt is they couldn't push reforms at the pace we wanted it to go. Reforms happened in the financial and defence sectors, where they had the power to do it, but those reforms don't really reach the masses. The reforms that are supposed to reach them should have come from land and labour reforms, which haven't happened.
State govts in the Hindi belt have always been incompetent, regardless of who has been in power. And welfare can only get you so far because people will in a short time just feel they are entitled to it anyway.
I don't think the above predictions are coming true buddy. I think the voters have taken the BJP to the cleaners today. And KCR has hit home run.
Nooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!
(wait for Arnub to declare said states Pakistani states).