Rajasthan can be retained, if BJP can overcome it's love for maharani - It's Cumbersome &. Congress may opt for Sachin pilot and then Ashok gehlot may not let her win Rajasthan.
A lot of things "can" happen - Rajasthan would take a minor miracle to retain, but it "can" be done. Provided certain things happen. As far as Vasundhara is concerned, yea, she's one of the reasons why BJP is facing these setbacks, but the problem is she is said to command several MLA's, and if she isn't named CM candidate, she may end up splitting the party like Yeddyurappa did in 2013, which would be a disaster.
Still, I guess we'll see what happens. Also, in order to retain RAJ-MP-CH, it's absolutely crucial that BJP beats Congress in Karnataka. A win there would kill all of Congress's momentum and choke them dry of funds.