Indian Political Discussion

Shajida Khan said:
This is where you are wrong.

Here is a simple simulation which I did on Excel.

Current population (assuming 100)
Current Birth rate Assuming 2.4% (which is indeed birth rate of Muslims in Kerala.
Current Death rate Assuming 0.5% ( ditto)
Avg age (assuming 20 years but you can choose anything else)

New population each year = current population * (100 + Birth rate - Death rate) / 100.

New avg age = ((Current population * Current Avg Age) + (Current population *(100 - Death Rate)/100)) / New population from above
Total age of all living ppl last year Increment by 1 year of living ppl
Results

Pop Birth Rate % Death Rate % Avg Age

100 2.4 0.5 20

101.9 2.4 0.5 20.60353288

103.8361 2.4 0.5 21.19581244

105.8089859 2.4 0.5 21.77704852


so on an so forth

View attachment 2034

View attachment 2035


The population will grow older as an average with time and growth rate will hence slow reaching an equilibrium.
Click to expand...

Sigh. I will play your game.
First off. Your new age calculation formula is wrong. The average life expectancy at 74.9 years is necessary to be plugged in the formula. Even with that added in , your new age formula still seems to miss the birth of children

Seems to me to be more like
New age = Total of new ages / new total pop
=[(total age of current popn+1) - (Total age of dying popn) + Total Age of new baby popn]/new total population
=[(current population*(current age+1)) - current population*(average life expectancy 74.9)*Death Rate/100 + Current population * Birth Rate * (Baby Age of 1)/100]/ new total population

The table is more like this for fertility differential 1.9%
1520789061534.png


The population average starts becoming younger when the fertility differential crosses 3.4% (3.9-0.5)
1520789227461.png


So my general statement the population grows younger with high fertility rate is correct. You just didnt go high enough.

Second. the statement "As long as the fertility rate is high, the average of the population will grow younger." very obviously implies relative to the others as my previous statement "You have to realize that younger population than others basically means that they are multiplying more than others." So again yours and mine calculations were pretty useless.

Thirdly, This is a classic example of "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
The quote you replied to
You have to realize that younger population than others basically means that they are multiplying more than others. More babies drive the average down. It is a function of the fertility rate. As long as the fertility rate is high, the average of the population will grow younger.

My argument is not so much a question of "Islam is dangerous and so must be controlled". It is more about revisiting the principle of majority and minority benefits in the constitution. As of now , its a farce, which is why I am showing you examples, when we are on the question of population %.

You are stuck on arguing that Hindus are not a minority, which invariably you are right as of now, as there are a lot of the older generation still. But the larger point is his demand for minority benefits and how they apply. Say, if they really are minority ,would they be given benefits in the current India? when it is already not given in JK, Punjab, Nagaland etc? Do you think our process is matured for that? But you are tunnel visioning on the technicality , that for now Kerala doesnt apply. And calling the point BS. Its like saying the hare and tortoise cannot talk to each other and the story of the race is BS. The moral of the story applies. Same way, The moral of his demand for minority-majority still applies.
Click to expand...
I ask you to understand the moral of his demand - you go ahead- pick the least useful statement and misrepresent my statement - present statistics - fudge it up. And the moral of demand is gone- poof.
 
Shajida Khan said:
Were they arraigned in the court? If they were, the case would have gone into hearing atleast. In kerala IIRC cow slaughter is legal as per state law. But yes, hurting religious sentiment charges could be pressed if they deliberately slaughtered a calf while mocking Hindus.
Click to expand...

LOL..... cow slaughter is legal because the Hindus of kerala are Emasculated.

DX9ATWgU8AAdTFd.jpg


Now compare this to the North of India.

LOL at Kerala "communism".

DX9BSwMV4AAFjnZ.jpg
 
Dagger said:
Sigh. I will play your game.
First off. Your new age calculation formula is wrong. The average life expectancy at 74.9 years is necessary to be plugged in the formula. Even with that added in , your new age formula still seems to miss the birth of children

Seems to me to be more like
New age = Total of new ages / new total pop
=[(total age of current popn+1) - (Total age of dying popn) + Total Age of new baby popn]/new total population
=[(current population*(current age+1)) - current population*(average life expectancy 74.9)*Death Rate/100 + Current population * Birth Rate * (Baby Age of 1)/100]/ new total population

The table is more like this for fertility differential 1.9%
View attachment 2037

The population average starts becoming younger when the fertility differential crosses 3.4% (3.9-0.5)
View attachment 2038

So my general statement the population grows younger with high fertility rate is correct. You just didnt go high enough.

Second. the statement "As long as the fertility rate is high, the average of the population will grow younger." very obviously implies relative to the others as my previous statement "You have to realize that younger population than others basically means that they are multiplying more than others." So again yours and mine calculations were pretty useless.

Thirdly, This is a classic example of "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
The quote you replied to

I ask you to understand the moral of his demand - you go ahead- pick the least useful statement and misrepresent my statement - present statistics - fudge it up. And the moral of demand is gone- poof.
Click to expand...

Clearly her status as a muslim has nothing to do with this subterfuge. :rolleyes: Must be all in my mind.
 
Dagger said:
The population average starts becoming younger when the fertility differential crosses 3.4% (3.9-0.5)
Click to expand...
Yes it does. But is that the case? Nope! Assumption that it will always grow younger is wrong. In kerala, birth rate differential of Muslims is about 1.9, which is the growth rate of population.

BTW, since independence, birth rates among Muslims have been falling at an accelerating pace.
 
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Shajida Khan said:
Yes it does. But is that the case? Nope! Assumption that it will always grow younger is wrong.
Click to expand...
Wherein you have to see my second point that , originally i meant relative to others- since that is what matters when we are talking about Population %. We are not talking about overall population numbers.

And as the third point says, we are discussing tangents. The moral is there for the intelligent to see. I have to take leave if we have to discuss statistics. Most interesting- but quite beside the point.
 
Dagger said:
Wherein you have to see my second point that , originally i meant relative to others- since that is what matters when we are talking about Population %. We are not talking about overall population numbers.
Click to expand...
The birth rate among Muslims is falling fastest since last 10-15 years. And even if current rate of 1.9% continues, Muslims will not be able to out number Hindus in Kerala in 50 years. Will the society same in coming 50 years? I don't know and I think you cann't know as well.
 
Dagger said:
=[(total age of current popn+1) - (Total age of dying popn) + Total Age of new baby popn]/new total population
=[(current population*(current age+1)) - current population*(average life expectancy 74.9)*Death Rate/100 + Current population * Birth Rate * (Baby Age of 1)/100]/ new total population
Click to expand...
Honestly, my estimate is more of a lower bound on age. It underestimates the avg age. But if you want to include the age of babies, be my guest. It will raise the avg age.
 
Shajida Khan said:
The birth rate among Muslims is falling fastest since last 10-15 years. And even if current rate of 1.9% continues, Muslims will not be able to out number Hindus in Kerala in 50 years. Will the society same in coming 50 years? I don't know and I think you cann't know as well.
Click to expand...
You are clearly intelligent enough seeing you perform these calculations. Somehow, my point has evaded you. Leave it be. Sayonara for today.
 
Dagger said:
You are stuck on arguing that Hindus are not a minority, which invariably you are right as of now, as there are a lot of the older generation still. But the larger point is his demand for minority benefits and how they apply. Say, if they really are minority ,would they be given benefits in the current India? when it is already not given in JK, Punjab, Nagaland etc? Do you think our process is matured for that? But you are tunnel visioning on the technicality , that for now Kerala doesnt apply. And calling the point BS. Its like saying the hare and tortoise cannot talk to each other and the story of the race is BS. The moral of the story applies. Same way, The moral of his demand for minority-majority still applies.
Click to expand...
This issue is already being considered by NCM :

Hindus to get minority status in states where their population is low: About the National Commission for Minorities

However, what is being discussed here is not current minority but something different.
 
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Dagger said:
I ask you to understand the moral of his demand - you go ahead- pick the least useful statement and misrepresent my statement - present statistics - fudge it up. And the moral of demand is gone- poof.
Click to expand...
The moral of his demand would have made sense in Nagaland or J&K. He is talking about that demand in a state where such situation is not going to be there for atleast 50 years. It becomes immoral then.
 
@vstol Jockey , regarding the earlier posts about BJP needing a Jat face in Rajasthan, what do you think about the chances of BJP bringing back Hanuman Beniwal to the party?

Especially now that they brought back Kirodilal Meena. I remember reading an article where Meena said he had spoken to Beniwal before rejoining and that Beniwal was very positive about the development.
 
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Spot the difference.

BJP Rajya Sabha names was approved by the Central Election Committee.

CONgress RS names was approved by their king, Rahul gandhi.

DYBZv-pU0AAmyCg.jpg


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Find the Presstitutes contest,

What the man actually SAID.

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What the Presstitutes reported,

DX-tq9jXUAEtP1I.jpg


The incident refers to an earlier incident reported in the news papers.

DX-qyClU8AEShf2.jpg
 
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Shajida Khan said:
The moral of his demand would have made sense in Nagaland or J&K. He is talking about that demand in a state where such situation is not going to be there for atleast 50 years. It becomes immoral then.
Click to expand...

The Morality of my demand is in the face of Love Jihad.

Grand daughter of Communist Leader A K Gopalan and daughter of CPIM MP Karunakaran, Diya Karunakaran converted to Islam to marry Marsad Suhail today.

While in delhi SRK married Gauri without any conversion. THAT is the moral dilemma.

DYBk7hrWkAAWNRi.jpg


DYBlP1wX4AEm0ON.jpg
 
ManavantraTruti said:
The Morality of my demand is in the face of Love Jihad.

Grand daughter of Communist Leader A K Gopalan and daughter of CPIM MP Karunakaran, Diya Karunakaran converted to Islam to marry Marsad Suhail today.

While in delhi SRK married Gauri without any conversion. THAT is the moral dilemma.

DYBk7hrWkAAWNRi.jpg


DYBlP1wX4AEm0ON.jpg
Click to expand...

Buddy, how does it really matter?

Look at it pragmatically (as a Parsi, I have common ground here .... with Hindu guys replacing Muslim ones for you).

The girl is lost to you anyways in terms of lineage.

Her progeny are never going to be Hindus.

Does it matter if she remains Hindu or converts? If I am not mistaken, except for a small group of Hindus somewhere in south India who practice matrilineal lineage, Hindus too have patrilineal lineage rules.

Cheers, Doc
 
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