Israel-Hamas Conflict: Updates & Discussions

[Parthu]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778960974587846814

As I was expecting the US ISR can detect mobile missile movement and electronic chatter that comes with any military moves including moving VIP's to secure locations. Point trying to make is the US will know when china has decided to attack Taiwan with Ballistic and cruise missiles alone. If Houthis are also moving missiles into position to synchronize a launch with Iran US ISR is likely also detecting it and when it comes to Houthis the US should be blowing up their missile launchers.

The margins for detection of actual intent on the Taiwan front is likely to be lower though.

The PLA routinely activates large numbers of aircraft & ground/amphib assets to operate in close proximity to Taiwan as part of their "drills/exercises" that any such build-up might slip under the threshold of what might be considered 'normal'.

Of course there's likely to be ELINT intercepts to back up any intel assessment but the question will be whether it'll be enough to convince the higher-ups that this build-up isn't like all the others.

The Taiwanese have learnt to closely monitor any & all such activity, however - something tells me it won't be hard to convince them. Not to mention, ROC has significant intelligence penetration of PRC at a HUMINT level.

 

[Innominate]

The margins for detection of actual intent on the Taiwan front is likely to be lower though.

The PLA routinely activates large numbers of aircraft & ground/amphib assets to operate in close proximity to Taiwan as part of their "drills/exercises" that any such build-up might slip under the threshold of what might be considered 'normal'.

Of course there's likely to be ELINT intercepts to back up any intel assessment but the question will be whether it'll be enough to convince the higher-ups that this build-up isn't like all the others.

The Taiwanese have learnt to closely monitor any & all such activity, however - something tells me it won't be hard to convince them. Not to mention, ROC has significant intelligence penetration of PRC at a HUMINT level.

There are drill exercise build-ups and staging forces for an attack. Before Russia staged its forces and invaded Ukraine they had build-up late March of 2021 that the US didn't take serious and they were right because Russia pulled back in June 2021 It wasn't until late October of 2021 that the US started to pay attention and raise alarm bells because they started deploying to other fronts and building infrastructure. When chicoms drill they use at most 25% of what they would actually need to attack Taiwan with missile, naval and aircraft not to mention the troop movement if they intend to invade with troops.

Now I'm just talking about a missile attack alone the US/Taiwan may have at best couple of days maybe a bit more. I'm hypothetically speaking of course since that is not the way chicoms would go after Taiwan. Iran is only going to use missiles to hit Israel and not that many either reports are saying US is detecting 100 or so missiles being prepared but they are also detecting a lot of chatter of other military preparedness staging their fighter jets at possible routes where Israeli fighters might be use for retaliation.

It's pretty much difficult to hide a significant military attack from the US. The US somehow knows when Russian bombers take off heading for Caspian sea to launch cruise missiles at Ukraine and know when those missiles are launched.

US ISR/ELINT is so way ahead that second best isn't close to what the US capability is. You use any form of electronic communication and somehow the US knows. That's how Bin Laden was found... some guard/currier of his after years decided to use a cell phone betraying Bin and his policy of no use of electronics. The chicoms and definitely the Russians know there is no hiding their military intentions from the US it's pretty much near impossible.

 

[BMD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778960974587846814

As I was expecting the US ISR can detect mobile missile movement and electronic chatter that comes with any military moves including moving VIP's to secure locations. Point trying to make is the US will know when china has decided to attack Taiwan with Ballistic and cruise missiles alone. If Houthis are also moving missiles into position to synchronize a launch with Iran US ISR is likely also detecting it and when it comes to Houthis the US should be blowing up their missile launchers.

Well they have satellite-based GMTI now too, no longer just pictures. Iran has a lot to lose, they have a lot of easily detected and targeted military assets, unlike Hamas.

 

[Ashwin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779227252934476258

 

[Defc0n]

Iranian swarm drones, cruise missiles and alleged ballistic missiles are en route to Israel.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779266591647023325

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779267440133681251

 

[jetray]

Iranian swarm drones, cruise missiles and alleged ballistic missiles are en route to Israel.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779266591647023325

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779267440133681251

drones launched , will take 9 hrs to reach israel.

 

[Defc0n]

LoL

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779271246448046147

 

[jetray]

These drones have to fly over iraq , then syria into israel thats a very narrow region, it can be constantly monitored without much problem.. If these drones are launched from yemen or mediterranean sea then it will be more challenging to intercept.

 

[Defc0n]

These drones have to fly over iraq , then syria into israel thats a very narrow region, it can be constantly monitored without much problem.. If these drones are launched from yemen or mediterranean sea then it will be more challenging to intercept.

The idea seems to be to overwhelm the ADS. Once the AD is busy intercepting these drones, the bigger stuff will start getting launched.. CMs and BMs most likely are waiting to be launched.

 

[jetray]

The idea seems to be to overwhelm the ADS. Once the AD is busy intercepting these drones, the bigger stuff will start getting launched.. CMs and BMs most likely are waiting to be launched.

This is just a spectacle for the followers both the actors want to show some action. Iran will claim launch while israel will tout shooting it down.

By the way Iranians have named the operation as............. "True Promise" !

 

[Innominate]

So 350 missiles and drones launched at Israel and 7 (4 more likely) was actually able to hit Israeli territory causing no damage to Israeli airbase where those 7 impacted. Also nobody was seriously injured. So what was the point? Now Bibi has every sovereign right to hit back at Iran, hell he has cause to declare war on Iran. US told him to count this as a win win and don't respond which is bull sht on the part of the US because if a neighbor did this to the US that nations military would cease to exist.

 

[Innominate]

Israeli missile defenses did one hellava job especially the PAC-3
-The Spokesman of the Israel Defense Force, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari has made a Statement reporting that 99% of the Threats that were launched tonight against Israel by Iran were Intercepted which is a Very Significant Strategic Achievement; he further states that out of 170 One-Way “Suicide” Drone and 30 Land-Attack Cruise Missiles launched by Iran, 0 were able to enter Israeli Airspace and 25 of the Cruise Missiles were Downed by the Israeli Air Force. Alongside that, of the 120 Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles only a few Impacted the Territory of Israel having Struck the Area of Nevatim Airbase in the Negev Desert causing Minor Damage to Infrastructure; however despite the Damage, the Base is still Operational and Preparing to receive the 3 Squadron of F-35Is that are Stationed at the Base and have been Airborne tonight conducting Interceptions.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779370522028998833

It's not over it is now Israel's turn but right now the winner of this strike is....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779273476374737321

It's sooo truuueee

 

[jetray]

So 350 missiles and drones launched at Israel and 7 (4 more likely) was actually able to hit Israeli territory causing no damage to Israeli airbase where those 7 impacted. Also nobody was seriously injured. So what was the point? Now Bibi has every sovereign right to hit back at Iran, hell he has cause to declare war on Iran. US told him to count this as a win win and don't respond which is bull sht on the part of the US because if a neighbor did this to the US that nations military would cease to exist.

Irrespective of the damage it is a big step, it is no longer a proxy war but direct attack. If yemen/houthis get hold of these missiles then it is going to be big problem. Only saving grace is that israel is a small country which makes it easy for it to cover itself with a anti-missile system. But sooner or later it will be overwhelmed with more faster missile/quantity/launched from sea.

By the way russians might be laughing their *censored* off seeing all those systems being used elsewhere instead of ukraine.

 

[BMD]

Israel is quiet on next steps against Iran — and on which partners helped shoot down missiles

Israeli leaders on Sunday credited an international military coalition with helping thwart a direct Iranian attack involving hundreds of drones and missiles, calling the coordinated response a starting point for a “strategic alliance” of regional opposition to Tehran. The military coalition...

us.yahoo.com

By the way russians might be laughing their *censored* off seeing all those systems being used elsewhere instead of ukraine.

No doubt, the Russians planned this distraction with Iran from the get go.

 

[BMD]

Would an S-400 system have faired as well?

 

[BMD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779253819831915001

This number of intercepts is amazing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779284961607967171

 

[BMD]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/more-than-100-iranian-drones-have-been-intercepted-by-us-uk-outside-israel-says-defense-official/

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779278332267233661

 

[BMD]

And... it's over.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779279979349475831

This attack must have cost Iran a fortune too. And they made themselves look weak in the process.

 

[Soldier35]

Iran attacked Israel on the night of April 13-14. Iran's operation is called "True Promise" and is Iran's response to Israel's attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This is Iran's first direct attack on Israel from its territory, reportedly targeting Israeli military targets. The strike on Israel was carried out using kamikaze drones Shahed-136, Shahed-131 and jet drones Shahed-238. Sumar cruise missiles and Fateh-110 and Khaybar ballistic missiles are also used, capable of carrying different types of warheads, including multiple warheads. Other types of missiles are also used. Data on the number of Iranian missiles and drones are contradictory, with some media reporting that Iran has used 185 drones, 36 cruise missiles and 110 surface-to-surface missiles. The Iranian attack is currently considered the most massive drone attack in world history. In repelling an attack by Iran, Israel is assisted by aircraft from the United States, Great Britain and France. Jordan also intercepts missiles; the video shows debris from a downed Iranian missile in Aman. Israel has reported intercepting 99% of Iran's missiles and drones, but this cannot be true as Israeli residents film Iranian missile strikes. The video shows rare footage of an Iranian ballistic missile interception taking place outside the Earth's atmosphere. Footage of Iranian missile attacks on the Ramon airbase in the Negev desert was also published. According to the latest data, Israel reported that the damage from the attacks was insignificant and that it would launch a retaliatory strike against Iran within 48 hours. The United States announced that it would not support Israel's attack on Iran. The commander of the Iranian IRGC said that Iran's operation against Israel was more successful than expected and he does not plan to continue it, but in case of an Israeli strike, he will strike back with a more powerful strike. The following shows the work of Israeli air defense and attacks by Iranian missiles and drones.

 

[randomradio]

If we we the same as Hamas, everyone in Gaza would have been killed off already. And many other places too. Afghanistan would have been very easy with Hamas tactics. Just kill everybody and eventually you'll find the Taliban.

Tories will likely struggle this time anyway because they've been in 14 years but everyone knows what Labour's immigration policies are, pretty much open door.

As regards Gaza, why the f*ck sould be take refugees from there, when even Egypt and Jordan right next door won't? They can dig supply tunnels but they're not very good at supplying asylum.

The minute the Tories are out, the floodgates for immigrants will open. Nothing to do with Gaza, the Palestinians are stuck there. But what you will get is people from other parts of MENA, like the rest of Europe. Labour will also open the doors to immigrants already present in Europe.

I'm betting on about a million making their way in over the next 5 years.