Israel-Hamas Conflict: Updates & Discussions

150 MRBMs are not too small. For size of israel this was as hard hitting as it gets.

As per an Indian Air Marshal, the enemy needs 330 BMs to shut down a single air base for 24 hours.

And attacks were carried out from Syria and Iraq too, not just Iran.
 
So far this seems to have played out remarkably similar to the India-Pakistan skirmish back in early 2019.

India conducts an attack that causes major damage to terror infrastructure, and the Pakistani retaliation makes a lot of noise, but without causing any real damage to the targets on the ground that they supposedly 'attacked'.

India chooses not to escalate any further in the interest of regional peace. And everything is back to normal.

It seems having a lot of radicalized Islamists among your population puts similar pressures on the leadership of both of these Islamic Republics. They need to satiate the domestic cries for spilling foreign blood, but without ending up in a major war which they know they'll lose.

No, the Pakistani attack was serious. They just failed. India was prepared to retaliate with both missiles and even a ground invasion into Pakjab.

It's not clear what Iran's intentions were, they probably thought they would be a bit more successful than what happened, but the attack was well within the capabilities of interception by their IADS.
 
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Lopsided cost for defense.

Most people are underestimating the cost for Iran. When I see people valuing the cost of the missile below at <$0.5m, I know someone has suffered a brain death. Most people would not even use missiles this size for conventional attack, because it isn't cost efficient. I mean Pershing IIs cost $7m each back in the early '80s and they were much smaller than the one below. I've seen twitter estimates of $38-62m for the Iranian strike, I think multiply by 10 and then you're ballpark.


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Other figures put the Israeli cost at $1bn. It's $3.5m for an Arrow III but that was likely only used against MRBMs, which tend to cost around the same, even when built is poor countries.

 
I believe the Iranian attack was calculated to be interceptible in order to contain escalation. It was also carried out from multiple angles, so the attack covered more area, hence more interception resources could be spent efficiently.
Multiple attack directions rarely make it easier and bunching assets could have led to a pre-emptive strike. Could they have afforded to send more than 170+ ballistic missiles, near 200 drones and 36 cruise missiles in one night. No Russian attacks on Ukraine have been even half that size. Typically they are a quarter the size, sometimes only a tenth.
In any case, defeating modern-day IADS requires more than that.
Not against Russian. Ukraine used a third the number of drones and zero BMs or CMs and attacked 3 airfields with 7-8 aircraft destroyed. If Russian airfields have faced the same kind of salvo, Ukraine would not have to worry about Kh-101s or Kinzhals for a long time.
Also, quite a few were destroyed on the ground.
??? What missiles were destroyed on the ground?
Depends on how important the BMD requirement is. Since the S-400's primary role is air defense, any BMD capability will be based around self-protection. The S-500 gives the Russians their main BMD capabilities. We don't have enough information yet.
I thought the S-400 was supposed to give BMD capability up to 5.5km/s? Oh how claims change.

Point of interest, I think Arrow III is basically an SM-3 IIA.


The Arrow 3 missile consists of a two-stage, solid-fueled booster with a separating kinetic kill vehicle (KV). Smaller than the Arrow 2, the missile fits in a 21-inch vertical launch tube and has an estimated flyout range of up to 2,400 km.
 
Iran attacked Israel on the night of April 13-14. Iran's operation is called "True Promise" and is Iran's response to Israel's attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This is Iran's first direct attack on Israel from its territory, reportedly targeting Israeli military targets. The strike on Israel was carried out using kamikaze drones Shahed-136, Shahed-131 and jet drones Shahed-238. Sumar cruise missiles and Fateh-110 and Khaybar ballistic missiles are also used, capable of carrying different types of warheads, including multiple warheads. Other types of missiles are also used. Data on the number of Iranian missiles and drones are contradictory, with some media reporting that Iran has used 185 drones, 36 cruise missiles and 110 surface-to-surface missiles. The Iranian attack is currently considered the most massive drone attack in world history. In repelling an attack by Iran, Israel is assisted by aircraft from the United States, Great Britain and France. Jordan also intercepts missiles; the video shows debris from a downed Iranian missile in Aman. Israel has reported intercepting 99% of Iran's missiles and drones, but this cannot be true as Israeli residents film Iranian missile strikes. The video shows rare footage of an Iranian ballistic missile interception taking place outside the Earth's atmosphere. Footage of Iranian missile attacks on the Ramon airbase in the Negev desert was also published. According to the latest data, Israel reported that the damage from the attacks was insignificant and that it would launch a retaliatory strike against Iran within 48 hours. The United States announced that it would not support Israel's attack on Iran. The commander of the Iranian IRGC said that Iran's operation against Israel was more successful than expected and he does not plan to continue it, but in case of an Israeli strike, he will strike back with a more powerful strike. The following shows the work of Israeli air defense and attacks by Iranian missiles and drones.

The last explosion is actually an Israeli strike on Lebanon.

 
As per an Indian Air Marshal, the enemy needs 330 BMs to shut down a single air base for 24 hours.

And attacks were carried out from Syria and Iraq too, not just Iran.
BMs were not alone, and the assumption you are making here is that Iran wanted to close airbase. All we know, it might just want to damage F-35s there or kill pilots..
I thought the S-400 was supposed to give BMD capability up to 5.5km/s? Oh how claims change.
No, thats false. S-400 is an air defence system. Its terminal defence capability against BMs is very limited. India bought S-400 for air defence. India has a very competent BMD developed inhouse with ample inputs from Israel.

Good to see India's trust was not misplace. Performance of Israeli systems is examplary in BMD.
 
Lopsided cost for defense.

There is one issue in this way of thinking. What if these missiles had taken out F-35s on ground? Now that money looks well spent, right?

Now imagine if Israel launches an equal amount of BMs on Tehran? What do you think will happen?
 
No, the Pakistani attack was serious. They just failed. India was prepared to retaliate with both missiles and even a ground invasion into Pakjab.

It's not clear what Iran's intentions were, they probably thought they would be a bit more successful than what happened, but the attack was well within the capabilities of interception by their IADS.

The end result was the same - very minimal damage to the targeted party, which allows them to take the option of de-escalation.
 
Most people are underestimating the cost for Iran. When I see people valuing the cost of the missile below at <$0.5m, I know someone has suffered a brain death. Most people would not even use missiles this size for conventional attack, because it isn't cost efficient. I mean Pershing IIs cost $7m each back in the early '80s and they were much smaller than the one below. I've seen twitter estimates of $38-62m for the Iranian strike, I think multiply by 10 and then you're ballpark.


View attachment 33008

Other figures put the Israeli cost at $1bn. It's $3.5m for an Arrow III but that was likely only used against MRBMs, which tend to cost around the same, even when built is poor countries.


BMs are very cheap. It's basically just a big tube with a rather simple motor, propellent, a warhead, and some rather cheap electronics.

An Iskander costs something like $500k, which is a somewhat advanced missile compared to what Iran uses.

However, the attack was also expensive for Iran, with ballistic missiles generally costing upwards of £80,000. The US estimates Tehran had about 3,000, the largest arsenal in the Middle East.

Iran's BMs are really cheap in terms of dollars due to the collapse of their currency. The effect is worse than it is for Russia. So a small monetary infusion from Russia or China will equate to a lot of rials. So a billion GBP will give them well over 10,000 BMs.

So Iran's expenditure on this attack is miniscule. My guess is way less than $50M.
 
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Multiple attack directions rarely make it easier and bunching assets could have led to a pre-emptive strike. Could they have afforded to send more than 170+ ballistic missiles, near 200 drones and 36 cruise missiles in one night. No Russian attacks on Ukraine have been even half that size. Typically they are a quarter the size, sometimes only a tenth.

It goes to show how much Russia is actually underestimated.

Anyway, 120 BMs is not a lot.

Not against Russian. Ukraine used a third the number of drones and zero BMs or CMs and attacked 3 airfields with 7-8 aircraft destroyed. If Russian airfields have faced the same kind of salvo, Ukraine would not have to worry about Kh-101s or Kinzhals for a long time.

??? What missiles were destroyed on the ground?

I thought the S-400 was supposed to give BMD capability up to 5.5km/s? Oh how claims change.

Point of interest, I think Arrow III is basically an SM-3 IIA.


All you are doing is explaining how fake Ukraine's propaganda machinery is.

When you decide to build rocket forces, it's going to be a massive investment.

Here's a list of missiles the Iranians operate.
 
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BMs were not alone, and the assumption you are making here is that Iran wanted to close airbase. All we know, it might just want to damage F-35s there or kill pilots..

Just pointing out that this attack wasn't as big as you are assuming it to be. Iran can do much more than this.

No, thats false. S-400 is an air defence system. Its terminal defence capability against BMs is very limited. India bought S-400 for air defence. India has a very competent BMD developed inhouse with ample inputs from Israel.


Good to see India's trust was not misplace. Performance of Israeli systems is examplary in BMD.

The S-400's designed to shoot down SRBMs and MRBMs. It's roughly in the same class as India's BMD Phase 1, except it needs a new radar and missiles for exo-atmospheric interception. Its currently deployed capability is endo-atmopsheric.
 
There is one issue in this way of thinking. What if these missiles had taken out F-35s on ground? Now that money looks well spent, right?

Now imagine if Israel launches an equal amount of BMs on Tehran? What do you think will happen?

Israeli officials are pointing out that more fighters are necessary due to the unaffordability of the exchange.

As for Iran, their lack of fighter jets is a huge problem, although they do have some expensive BMD capability deployed. It will be interesting to see what Israel's response will be, but I hope things do not escalate beyond this type of nonsense.
 
The end result was the same - very minimal damage to the targeted party, which allows them to take the option of de-escalation.

You react to the intentions, not to the amount of damage caused.

India's descalation post Swift Retreat was taken as a sign of weakness.

As far as we are concerned, we were being responsible. But, as far as the US and China were concerned, we chickened out. It almost directly resulted in Galwan. We just got lucky that our jawans reacted the way they did and saved us some face. But the Chinese accurately predicted our weak political reaction given by the fact that they pretty much went unpunished militarily for taking over the gray zone.