Israel-Hamas Conflict: Updates & Discussions
- Thread starter Ashwin
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Our esteemed Chinese member may not agree, but China's way behind the West's military forces, never mind ragtag groups like the Hezbollah and Iran.
China's coming up, but it's a 10+ year process, and countries like Iran will never match the West.
I doubt air strikes can cripple Iran's nuclear ambitions. Only an invasion is the solution.
Israel has implemented a news censorship that is even stricter than Ukraine, so of course you can't see the target, and the Western media haven't reported any losses. Although Iran's missiles may have lower accuracy and less explosives, a large number of missiles broke through Israel's defenses in the night sky and hit the target steadily. Such videos are still shocking.
Before the Al-Aqsa flood, most people still believed that Israel's army was strong. A few people may have an impression of Israel's poor performance in the 2006 Lebanon-Israel War, but last year, the Israeli army did not achieve any effective results in the street fighting in Gaza. A large number of Hamas videos showed that the Israeli army suffered heavy losses. Israel did not even achieve its minimum goal - to completely annihilate the resistance organizations in the Gaza Strip and support a puppet government in Gaza.
Hezbollah has far more advanced weapons than Hamas, as well as a large number of prefabricated tunnels. Most importantly, Hamas has about 8,000 soldiers who have experienced the brutal war in Syria. Is Israel confident that it can defeat them?
Ukraine also has no air force, but has the Russian air force achieved decisive results? Russia organizes a large number of cruise missiles and drones to carry out air strikes on Ukraine every week, but has it had any significant impact on the war? Moreover, if the United States goes to war with Iran, Iran's large number of short-range missiles can effectively suppress the US military bases in the Persian Gulf.
At the same time, Iran even has extremely advanced air defense weapons. To some extent, they are better than the weapons that India can develop on its own. Israel did not have any obvious results when it counterattacked Iran’s first missile strike. At first, it claimed to have destroyed an Iranian S300 launch site, but then people discovered that the explosion traces claimed by Israel were just camouflage nets covering the S300 missiles.
Three months later, we will see whether Israel is able to defeat Hezbollah. Before October 8, 2023, everyone believed that Hamas's doom had come and he would ignite the fire of Islamic resistance with his life. However, now it seems that the incompetence, cruelty and cowardice of the Israeli Army have plunged Israel into a disaster. We have seen red arrows appear on the heads of countless Israeli soldiers. Israel can only rely on the intelligence capabilities of Mossad and the strike force of its own air force, but the final outcome of the war still depends on the army infantry.
Having some trained and experienced foot soldiers and being able to prosecute a war are two different things. The Israelis have a professional army, they can do pretty much whatever they want to achieve victory, and the opposition can only act based on the limits the Israelis cannot force upon them due to external pressure.
In Gaza, the entire population has been displaced, and at least 40000 are dead, not counting the irrecoverably wounded. Even if Hamas is not completely destroyed, it has been significantly neutered. Whatever happens next is something only time can answer. We cannot guess today if Hamas will stay in power or will be removed by the Gazans themselves. The expectation is Fatah will take over. Considering the kill to loss ratio, I don't think Israelis have lost a lot compared to the scale of the war. Even if one out of three deaths in Gaza were Hamas, it's still 16:1 versus the Israeli army. As time passes, Hamas will have lesser and lesser space to hide as their own people start turning against them to survive.
As for Hezbollah, pretty much the entire leadership has been killed, while a large portion of the middle-rung commanders were wounded by exploding pagers. How well it will perform as a fighting force is yet to be seen, we are still in the very early days in Lebanon after all. More sophisticated weapons, more tunnels, all that cannot replace fighter jets and artillery.
A Trump victory can make things very unpredictable too. So we have to wait and watch what happens until Jan 20th and then see how things will progress after the 20th.
I said the same thing. We will see in three months how the Israeli Army performs. As for what you said about Fatah taking control of Gaza, I think you are living in a dream. Hamas will only become stronger and stronger. Every person killed by Israel will have his parents and brothers become new fighters. In Gaza, the largest prison, even if you are barely alive, you will be killed by Israel. It is better to die with Israel.
These are the most recent results from PlanetLabs (ie Dove) constellation. Israel intercepted a lot of missiles, it did not bother to intercept those which it knew will not hit critical targets.
Another point. Iranian missiles are very very very inaccurate. They are worthless in non nuclear role.
@Bon Plan
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I personally hope Israel deploys nuclear weapons and wipe the entire Mullah leadership in Iran.
Are you a Gaokao fail ? I ask for the Wumaos I'm encountering online nowadays are terrible at reasoning giving much needed competition to the likes of Paddy here @BMD as compared to what I used to encounter pre Wuhan virus , which leaves me with no option but to consider these are Gaokao fail CCP quota recruits into the MSS who owe their position there to some mid ranked official in the CCP who happens to be a close relative .
Have you see those Iranian missiles ? They're copies & derivatives of the North Korean Nodong missiles which itself is a copy of the Soviet Scud missiles which you passed on to the North Koreans & they to the Iranians with terrible accuracy in case they do manage to take off.
Secondly how do you know those Iranian missiles which ostensibly crashed into Israel & weren't shot down by the latter were off target hence left alone by the various Israeli ADS ?
Thirdly Iran is one of the most sanctioned regime in the world such that when they had to get themselves an ADS they turned to Russia & got the S 200 , S 300 apart from whatever the Chinese & North Koreans provided them clandestinely & then reverse engineered them to produce local ADS much like the Chinese .
Fourthly how effective are these Russian systems can be gleaned by the performance of Russian ADS in the war in Ukraine. For every successful intercept there have been spectacular failures as well .
Fifthly current ADS have no response whatsoever to saturation attacks as Russia & Israel is finding out & as Iran & China will soon find out once you undertake your long awaited invasion of Taiwan.
Finally , the Chinese are so proficient in ADS that they got themselves the Russian S 400 system apart from the various iterations of the S 300 systems which they copied to derive the HQ ADS which dominates your ADS now.
Further you've taken Russian consultancy to execute integrated ADS across the country & their IADS is there for the world to see. Sounds like you're in for a some real fun when the balloon goes up.
The Russian AF was always not ready to fight this sort of war. They lacked the appropriate weapons, which is why they lost quite a few contracts in India to the West. It's also why we used Western weapons for our attack on Pakistan in 2019, while still developing Western standard weapons for the Su-30. This is not counting their less than adequate training for any war. PLAAF conducts way better training than the Russians. Only their special forces are good.
As for Iran's weapons, none of that's impressive. It's closer to the standards the West had in the 80s and 90s. Some of their newest SAMs are somewhat decent 'cause of AESA tech, but they are not even in the same generation as SAMs being developed in India or the West. Iran's SAMs were an option for Armenia, but they still chose older Indian SAMs operating with PESA radars and mechanical scan seekers. The Armenians are now asking for next gen SAMs from India. It's not just SAMs, the Iranians are competing for Armenian contracts and are still losing to Indian companies, and now India is their biggest military partner.
After Pinaka Rockets, Armenia Buys Indian Anti-Drone System To Fight Azerbaijan's Kamikaze UAVs
After importing rocket launchers and missiles from India, Armenia is now importing an anti-drone system from its South Asian friend. This has come when the conflict-ravaged country is keen to learn from India on how to modernize Soviet-era defense equipment. MQ-9 Reaper Drone: Under Fire From...
www.eurasiantimes.com
The Akash SAM purchase in particular is very big, it's half that of IAF's own order.
Armenia done, Egypt on queue: Why India's Akash SAM is so sought after
After India has struck a deal with Armenia to supply the Akash air defence missile system, Egypt has also expressed interest in acquiring the surface-to-air missile. Why are countries interested in the Akash missile system? ETV Bharat’s Aroonim Bhuyan writes.
www.etvbharat.com
India's competing with China in Brazil, Akash vs Sky Dragon 50. So that will be interesting.
So much for Air Defence systems...what a joke. You would expect them to atleast setup a few in and around the area.
Claims Swirl Around Israeli Strikes Very Near Russia's Air Base In Syria
Targeting weapons bound for Hezbollah, Israel appears to have struck very close or within Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base in Syria. Targeting weapons bound for Hezbollah, Israel appears to have struck very close or within Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base in Syria.www.twz.com
Nobody deserves this more that Russia, they are the primary architect of all this chaos.
Why is there is a 3 month-limit for Hezbollah? The politics is different. Gaza is inside Israel, so there's a 3-month limit for Hamas before Trump's unpredictablity comes into the picture. But Hezbollah is in Lebanon, a foreign country, so the rules for them are different. The war with Hezbollah can go on for years, so time doesn't matter to the Israelis here. It's a problem for India, China and the rest of the world 'cause of potential oil disruption.
Anyway, I think the Israelis are doing well in Gaza. They already stated last year that the war in Gaza will take a very long time.
Israel-Gaza war will continue for months, IDF chief warns
There are no shortcuts in the fight against Hamas, the army chief insists as Israel pounds Gaza.
www.bbc.com
Given their own statements, they seem to have given themselves a December 2024 deadline.
Israel says war on Gaza likely to last another seven months
National security adviser says he expects another ‘seven months of fighting’ as Israel expands Rafah offensive.
The Israelis are being very efficient, given the entire area has over 2 million people and has seen only 40,000 deaths.
Not everyone can be as good as India at this, but the Israelis are doing well.