Israel-Hamas Conflict: Updates & Discussions

[randomradio]

As for what you said about Fatah taking control of Gaza, I think you are living in a dream. Hamas will only become stronger and stronger.

You are assuming Israel won't persuade the local population to stop supporting Hamas. All they have to do is use Indian tactics used in Kashmir to subdue the population.

Kashmir sees 'drastic fall' in terror recruitment after Army & police launch de-radicalisation drive

Operation Sahi Raasta was started last year in Pattan in Baramulla district and is now being expanded to Anantnag. Only seven youth said to have joined terror ranks this year.

theprint.in

 

[randomradio]

I personally hope Israel deploys nuclear weapons and wipe the entire Mullah leadership in Iran.

All that radioactive air will blow into India due to western disturbances from the Mediterranean occuring anytime between Nov to June. This is what caused all that massive flooding in North India in 2013. Blows at 100 knots towards North India and is stopped by the Himalayas.

Anyway, the nuke option is meant to be used in case Israel is guaranteed annihilation. So it's for deterrence, not for assault.

 

[randomradio]

So much for Air Defence systems...what a joke. You would expect them to atleast setup a few in and around the area.

The recent attack on Israel was a failure. Perhaps deliberately so.

This time the Iranians seem to have made sure quite a few attacks happened in desolate areas so it would appear successful to onlookers.

Other than that, no defense is infallible, so there have been some minor successes with some or no damage. But this attack also means Iran is learning really fast. Another factor we need to take into consideration is saturation attacks have some potential for success, so the next time Iran could focus more single-mindedly to cause some real damage to a single target.

Let's not forget that early warning means the Israelis can secure most of their assets by scrambling them or placing them underground.

In the meantime, Iran's sent all their oil tankers out to sea in preparation for an Israeli attack.

 

[Saaho]

All that radioactive air will blow into India due to western disturbances from the Mediterranean occuring anytime between Nov to June. This is what caused all that massive flooding in North India in 2013. Blows at 100 knots towards North India and is stopped by the Himalayas.

Anyway, the nuke option is meant to be used in case Israel is guaranteed annihilation. So it's for deterrence, not for assault.

Not really. Modern bombs are very clean. Especially those with US and hence israel.

 

[Saaho]

Before the Al-Aqsa flood, most people still believed that Israel's army was strong. A few people may have an impression of Israel's poor performance in the 2006 Lebanon-Israel War, but last year, the Israeli army did not achieve any effective results in the street fighting in Gaza. A large number of Hamas videos showed that the Israeli army suffered heavy losses. Israel did not even achieve its minimum goal - to completely annihilate the resistance organizations in the Gaza Strip and support a puppet government in Gaza.
Hezbollah has far more advanced weapons than Hamas, as well as a large number of prefabricated tunnels. Most importantly, Hamas has about 8,000 soldiers who have experienced the brutal war in Syria. Is Israel confident that it can defeat them?

Errr... Leaving Sinwar, entire leadership of Hamas is dead. Most of Gaza is now a flat landscape with remaining under heavy bombardment. Even as we speak, death and malnutrition in Gaza is at the top. Israel is very much on target to ensuring that Palestinians will not have enough strength to ever hit Israel again.

If Israel nukes and kills Iranians, its game set match.

 

[BMD]

I'm not very sure about US interest in placing troops on the ground in the Arabian peninsula. Fight by proxy as usual.

Yes, but if would be done with round the clock US air support next time round.

That would be one big horror story if it escalates. Goodbye oil trade.

Not necessarily, the world is changing, the US is producing more. We've seen OPEC cuts but the price remains low.

Iranian Oil Tankers Bolting From Major Export Island Ahead Of Possible Israeli Strikes

Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf, which handles 90% of Iran's oil exports, is high on the list of retaliatory targets Israel may strike.

www.twz.com

 

[BMD]

Of course, Israel has publicized that it has intercepted a large number of missiles, but various videos show that the vast majority of missiles have stably completed the separation of the warheads and flew towards the target without any interference.

Not the case:

There are some dubious videos out there that may be showing MLRS use at night claiming it's Iranian MRBMs.

At the end of the day, show us satellite photos of the damage. So far there's only 1 confirmed hit on something that might be semi-important at Nevatim and probably 1 hit at Tel Nof on an ammo storage area. Not a good result for $1bn+ worth of MRBMs.

So 80-90% of the missiles were intercepted and only 5% of the ones that got through hit anything of note.

The recent attack on Israel was a failure. Perhaps deliberately so.

This time the Iranians seem to have made sure quite a few attacks happened in desolate areas so it would appear successful to onlookers.

Other than that, no defense is infallible, so there have been some minor successes with some or no damage. But this attack also means Iran is learning really fast. Another factor we need to take into consideration is saturation attacks have some potential for success, so the next time Iran could focus more single-mindedly to cause some real damage to a single target.

Let's not forget that early warning means the Israelis can secure most of their assets by scrambling them or placing them underground.

In the meantime, Iran's sent all their oil tankers out to sea in preparation for an Israeli attack.

He was talking about Israel's strike on a Russian air base in Syria.

 

[BMD]

Missile barrage against Israel exposes Iran's limitations: analysts

Paris (AFP) Oct 3, 2024 - Iran's missile barrage at Israel this week was meant as a warning that the Islamic republic can hit Israeli territory, but has instead exposed Iranian military limitations, analysts say.

www.spacewar.com

 

[BMD]

Israel says strikes Hezbollah intel HQ in Beirut

Beirut, Lebanon (AFP) Oct 4, 2024 - Israel's military said Thursday it had hit Hezbollah's intelligence headquarters in the Lebanese capital Beirut, as troops battled militants near the border and warplanes bombarded their strongholds around the country.

www.spacewar.com

 

[BMD]

Looks like Iran is going to get to play the Kharg Island map for real.

 

[randomradio]

Not really. Modern bombs are very clean. Especially those with US and hence israel.

Cleaner bombs, but still radioactive. Plus countries have a mix of "clean" and not-clean bombs.

The bigger problem for India is all that desert sand can fuse with particles and blast into India in a matter of hours, before it can decay, right into our nostrils via fast winds.

 

[randomradio]

Yes, but if would be done with round the clock US air support next time round.

I'm not sure about the sophistication of Arab armies required for dealing with the Houthis. The Saudi-UAE coalition had a lot of air power.

But the US is conducting air strikes in Yemen.

Not necessarily, the world is changing, the US is producing more. We've seen OPEC cuts but the price remains low.

Iranian Oil Tankers Bolting From Major Export Island Ahead Of Possible Israeli Strikes

Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf, which handles 90% of Iran's oil exports, is high on the list of retaliatory targets Israel may strike.

www.twz.com

The Persian Gulf supplies 17 mbpd of oil and 18% of the world's gas.

While gas can be dealt with by Europe reengaging with the Russians, oil is a different story. Alternate suppliers cannot supply the balance, even the US.

 

[randomradio]

Looks like Iran is going to get to play the Kharg Island map for real.

It's a civilian target, and the Iranians may be regretting right about now for not having patched things up with the Russians and developed a proper air force with missile defense. Spilled milk.

 

[BMD]

It's a civilian target, and the Iranians may be regretting right about now for not having patched things up with the Russians and developed a proper air force with missile defense. Spilled milk.

It's oil and gas (fuel), which have always been military targets if you're at war with the country containing them. The vast majority of Iranian missiles that were shot down targeted Tel Aviv.

 

[Lolwa]

It's a civilian target, and the Iranians may be regretting right about now for not having patched things up with the Russians and developed a proper air force with missile defense. Spilled milk.

They don't care. Their whole plan is to play assymetric warfare against Israel. They will rely on missile attacks. And more terrorist proxies. It's an unending cycle. Israel may not have the appetite

 

[BMD]

I'm not sure about the sophistication of Arab armies required for dealing with the Houthis. The Saudi-UAE coalition had a lot of air power.

But the US is conducting air strikes in Yemen.

Anyone who comes to confront them will get bombed to death, so their skill level won't be that important.

The Persian Gulf supplies 17 mbpd of oil and 18% of the world's gas.

While gas can be dealt with by Europe reengaging with the Russians, oil is a different story. Alternate suppliers cannot supply the balance, even the US.

People said the same about Russian oil.

 

[Lolwa]

Ukraine also has no air force, but has the Russian air force achieved decisive results? Russia organizes a large number of cruise missiles and drones to carry out air strikes on Ukraine every week, but has it had any significant impact on the war? Moreover, if the United States goes to war with Iran, Iran's large number of short-range missiles can effectively suppress the US military bases in the Persian Gulf.
At the same time, Iran even has extremely advanced air defense weapons. To some extent, they are better than the weapons that India can develop on its own. Israel did not have any obvious results when it counterattacked Iran’s first missile strike. At first, it claimed to have destroyed an Iranian S300 launch site, but then people discovered that the explosion traces claimed by Israel were just camouflage nets covering the S300 missiles.
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Their bavar 373 and buk copies are the only two good AD's they have. Overall Iranian weapons quality is poor and in some cases inferior to the North Koreans.

 

[Saaho]

Cleaner bombs, but still radioactive. Plus countries have a mix of "clean" and not-clean bombs.

They are clean enough that you can enter ground zero in few hours to days. Since Israel is near Iran, it will use clear bombs.

 

[Saaho]

To be very honest, best thing Israel can do is to kill majority of Iranian leadership including that bloody Ayatollah.

Then ignite a revolution to kill every bloody IRGC member in the most brutal way possible and restablish rule of Shah Phelavi again. This stupid Islamist government in Iran needs to be completely destroyed.

 

[randomradio]

It's oil and gas (fuel), which have always been military targets if you're at war with the country containing them. The vast majority of Iranian missiles that were shot down targeted Tel Aviv.

That would affect us. It would affect poorer countries like India immediately, but it would hurt richer countries like UK in the long term even more as the inflation generated today cascades over many years.

They don't care. Their whole plan is to play assymetric warfare against Israel. They will rely on missile attacks. And more terrorist proxies. It's an unending cycle. Israel may not have the appetite

Iran has escalation superiority, so we have to see what they do after an Israeli attack.