Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates

STEPHEN COHEN said:
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It perfectly describes India's foreign policy, no idea where they want to be.
 
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It seems Chinese are in dilemma .
There first strategy was to push back us and expected the Covid issue will cause cold response from India ln side.
Turned out that i it was a back firing one .
Now under any circumstances they dont want a full scale war.
So initiated another strategy .
To boggeddown us in the border for long time to drain our resources .
As a retaliation because of our economic sanctions against them.Chinese economy can withstand that.
What about us ?@vstol Jockey @nair @Ashwin
 
SrNair said:
It seems Chinese are in dilemma .
There first strategy was to push back us and expected the Covid issue will cause cold response from India ln side.
Turned out that i it was a back firing one .
Now under any circumstances they dont want a full scale war.
So initiated another strategy .
To boggeddown us in the border for long time to drain our resources .
As a retaliation because of our economic sanctions against them.Chinese economy can withstand that.
What about us ?@vstol Jockey @nair @Ashwin
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The cost to maintain a single soldier every year in such conditions is 10L at the minimum. So 50,000 troops would cost Rs 5,000Cr. Double that for the best estimate, perhaps even triple that if you include all the supporting services provided by those not in the army. And then the first year will be expensive because the govt has to pay market rates for emergency purchases from the civilian market. In the summer, bulk purchases can be made, which can make it cheaper over the long term. Also, permanent infrastructure has to now be built to store all the food and supplies for all those troops.

In terms of finances, it's a waste of money, but it's not unaffordable. The main cost will be human. A few thousand soldiers living in Siachen is fine, but tens of thousands creates a whole new set of problems. It's gonna be worse for the Chinese, although what works in their favour is while we paid a lot in human cost over the decades since 1984 to build up what we have today, the Chinese are starting their winter with a much higher global experience and technology base in 2019, so they will quickly catch up after suffering losses early on.
 
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SrNair said:
It seems Chinese are in dilemma .
There first strategy was to push back us and expected the Covid issue will cause cold response from India ln side.
Turned out that i it was a back firing one .
Now under any circumstances they dont want a full scale war.
So initiated another strategy .
To boggeddown us in the border for long time to drain our resources .
As a retaliation because of our economic sanctions against them.Chinese economy can withstand that.
What about us ?@vstol Jockey @nair @Ashwin
Click to expand...
IMHO, it was a revenge for Doklam with an aim to humiliate Modi and make India look like a sissy which can be tamed easily by the Chinese. They did this to probably change the narrative post Doklam and show the other countries of SCS that they are the real boss as even India can't do anything to them. They nearly pulled it off but for Galwan followed by IA going into offensive by taking over those peaks. Now if you read the ground situation. We have PLA encircled in a horse shoe shape formation south of PT and we can completely encircle them and wipe out each and every PLA soldier by going forward from Rechin La and cutting off the road to Rutog.
In the North PT, we are dominating the ridgeline upto Sijap/Khurnak Fort and have effectively cut off their North PT garrison from Kongka La and South PT garrison. Even That Garrison is now at the mercy of IA with no chance of any resupply in case of hostilities and under attack from North and South PT shores. Chinese have effectively boxed themselves into a much worse situation than Doklam and they have no other option but to have even a bigger set back and loss of face. Irrespective of what they choose, they will loose. AND loose very badly.
 
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vstol Jockey said:
IMHO, it was a revenge for Doklam with an aim to humiliate Modi and make India look like a sissy which can be tamed easily by the Chinese. They did this to probably change the narrative post Doklam and show the other countries of SCS that they are the real boss as even India can't do anything to them. They nearly pulled it off but for Galwan followed by IA going into offensive by taking over those peaks. Now if you read the ground situation. We have PLA encircled in a horse shoe shape formation south of PT and we can completely encircle them and wipe out each and every PLA soldier by going forward from Rechin La and cutting off the road to Rutog.
In the North PT, we are dominating the ridgeline upto Sijap/Khurnak Fort and have effectively cut off their North PT garrison from Kongka La and South PT garrison. Even That Garrison is now at the mercy of IA with no chance of any resupply in case of hostilities and under attack from North and South PT shores. Chinese have effectively boxed themselves into a much worse situation than Doklam and they have no other option but to have even a bigger set back and loss of face. Irrespective of what they choose, they will loose. AND loose very badly.
Click to expand...
theoretically, this may be correct. but looking at how geopolitics is shaping up and GOI moves, nothing will happen on ground. No military skirmish will take place, let alone all out war.

Release of Mehbooba Mufti indicates GOI wants to once gain (foolishly?) explore the conciliation narrative in J&K, and are once again playing into the hands of Pak, while the Chicoms are busy setting up airbases in Skardu. In case hostilities do break out, it will most certainly be a two front affair, and we are in for some tough times, especially if we continue to remain reactive and let the opponents set the narrative.
 
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ghostwhowalks said:
theoretically, this may be correct. but looking at how geopolitics is shaping up and GOI moves, nothing will happen on ground. No military skirmish will take place, let alone all out war.

Release of Mehbooba Mufti indicates GOI wants to once gain (foolishly?) explore the conciliation narrative in J&K, and are once again playing into the hands of Pak, while the Chicoms are busy setting up airbases in Skardu. In case hostilities do break out, it will most certainly be a two front affair, and we are in for some tough times, especially if we continue to remain reactive and let the opponents set the narrative.
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While I agree to your post regarding Mehbooba Mufti, I wish to clarify that After 29th Aug, we are controlling the narrative on LAC. You must see how the chinese have toned down since then. Before 29th, they had refused to even consider moving back beyond F5 while they wanted India to go back to F2 for that. Now they are game to go back to F8 provided India goes back to F3. India has refused this also. So who is controlling the narrative now?
 
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ghostwhowalks said:
especially if we continue to remain reactive and let the opponents set the narrative.
Click to expand...

During Balakot and post Balakot the govt allowed a lot of leeway to give Pak a face saving exit. But they didn't take it. So the next time's gonna be a different story. Now Pakistan is on the defensive in pretty much every area. They have practically handed over the airspace over LoC to the IAF and now we are happily killing them where they stand using artillery.

With the LAC problem, GoI gave the Chinese a way to end it, with a restoration to status quo ante. The Chinese didn't accept. Then the army made its move, and the Chinese switched from not even talking to us to practically begging us to restore status quo ante. Now we are not ready for status quo ante.

So I do not know what this narrative you speak of really is.
 
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India demolishes China’s new excuse for Ladakh stand-off in 3 points

India China border: The PLA’s concerns around the Indian infrastructure upgrade in Ladakh stem from the fear that it could pose a military threat to the multi-billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor
m.hindustantimes.com
randomradio said:
During Balakot and post Balakot the govt allowed a lot of leeway to give Pak a face saving exit. But they didn't take it. So the next time's gonna be a different story. Now Pakistan is on the defensive in pretty much every area. They have practically handed over the airspace over LoC to the IAF and now we are happily killing them where they stand using artillery.

With the LAC problem, GoI gave the Chinese a way to end it, with a restoration to status quo ante. The Chinese didn't accept. Then the army made its move, and the Chinese switched from not even talking to us to practically begging us to restore status quo ante. Now we are not ready for status quo ante.

So I do not know what this narrative you speak of really is.
Click to expand...

We have Not yet given Sufficient Punishment to Pakistan

At least A Few Hammers must be dropped soon on Useful Targets like
Brigade HQ and SAM sites
 
ghostwhowalks said:
theoretically, this may be correct. but looking at how geopolitics is shaping up and GOI moves, nothing will happen on ground. No military skirmish will take place, let alone all out war.

Release of Mehbooba Mufti indicates GOI wants to once gain (foolishly?) explore the conciliation narrative in J&K, and are once again playing into the hands of Pak, while the Chicoms are busy setting up airbases in Skardu. In case hostilities do break out, it will most certainly be a two front affair, and we are in for some tough times, especially if we continue to remain reactive and let the opponents set the narrative.
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I hope we kill off both the abdullah's and mufti's, sometimes I wish we were more like the Chinese. Both them are gangsters who terrorise the average Kashmiri..
 
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STEPHEN COHEN said:

India demolishes China’s new excuse for Ladakh stand-off in 3 points

India China border: The PLA’s concerns around the Indian infrastructure upgrade in Ladakh stem from the fear that it could pose a military threat to the multi-billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor
m.hindustantimes.com


We have Not yet given Sufficient Punishment to Pakistan

At least A Few Hammers must be dropped soon on Useful Targets like
Brigade HQ and SAM sites
Click to expand...

The next one's gotta be big, and by big I mean gigantic. For example, take back PoK at the higher end or even a limited war, which includes taking out a sufficiently large part of their air force, like some force multipliers and a squadron or two worth of jets. Simple punishment won't be enough.
 
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randomradio said:
The next one's gotta be big, and by big I mean gigantic. For example, take back PoK at the higher end or even a limited war, which includes taking out a sufficiently large part of their air force, like some force multipliers and a squadron or two worth of jets. Simple punishment won't be enough.
Click to expand...

I have a question regarding taking back PoK.

If we recapture PoK and GB, what stops Paxtan to pressurize us through UN and other countries to carry out plebiscite?

The first condition is met and ball will be in our court. We will be perpetually defending our position where we haven't invested enough in counter narrative. Western rags are already infiltrated by jihadis and our jaichands will gladly vilify GoI internationally.

Better only to take back GB and wait till paxtan disintegrates.
 
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Cole_phelps said:
I have a question regarding taking back PoK.

If we recapture PoK and GB, what stops Paxtan to pressurize us through UN and other countries to carry out plebiscite?

The first condition is met and ball will be in our court. We will be perpetually defending our position where we haven't invested enough in counter narrative. Western rags are already infiltrated by jihadis and our jaichands will gladly vilify GoI internationally.

Better only to take back GB and wait till paxtan disintegrates.
Click to expand...

Taking Back POK will cost us lives of many soldiers

It is not worth it

Better use IAF , Brahmos and Navy to destroy their assets

A Land War is desirable only on the plains ie Downwards from Jammu
 
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Cole_phelps said:
I have a question regarding taking back PoK.

If we recapture PoK and GB, what stops Paxtan to pressurize us through UN and other countries to carry out plebiscite?

The first condition is met and ball will be in our court. We will be perpetually defending our position where we haven't invested enough in counter narrative. Western rags are already infiltrated by jihadis and our jaichands will gladly vilify GoI internationally.

Better only to take back GB and wait till paxtan disintegrates.
Click to expand...

We are not gonna bother about a plebicite, and Pak won't either at that time. Pak will up their rhetoric claiming India is an expansionist country and has hegemonic design and try to proposition anybody who will listen. Many countries scared of India's rise, especially around our own neighbourhood, will be interested in what Pak has to say, so we will have to engage with these countries diplomatically.

As long as our image is clean, narratives won't hold much anywhere except Twitter. Most of the world is already against Pakistan due to terrorism, so it's not going to take much effort building a counternarrative. Building narratives is for the weak, the strong don't care about narratives. Look at China.

Btw, PoK = Azad Kashmir + GB. And if we plan to take PoK, it's going to be both regions. There's no point in taking back only a part of it.
 
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vstol Jockey said:
IMHO, it was a revenge for Doklam with an aim to humiliate Modi and make India look like a sissy which can be tamed easily by the Chinese. They did this to probably change the narrative post Doklam and show the other countries of SCS that they are the real boss as even India can't do anything to them. They nearly pulled it off but for Galwan followed by IA going into offensive by taking over those peaks. Now if you read the ground situation. We have PLA encircled in a horse shoe shape formation south of PT and we can completely encircle them and wipe out each and every PLA soldier by going forward from Rechin La and cutting off the road to Rutog. In the North PT, we are dominating the ridgeline upto Sijap/Khurnak Fort and have effectively cut off their North PT garrison from Kongka La and South PT garrison. Even That Garrison is now at the mercy of IA with no chance of any resupply in case of hostilities and under attack from North and South PT shores. Chinese have effectively boxed themselves into a much worse situation than Doklam and they have no other option but to have even a bigger set back and loss of face. Irrespective of what they choose, they will loose. AND loose very badly.
Click to expand...
vstol Jockey said:
IMHO, it was a revenge for Doklam with an aim to humiliate Modi and make India look like a sissy which can be tamed easily by the Chinese. They did this to probably change the narrative post Doklam and show the other countries of SCS that they are the real boss as even India can't do anything to them. They nearly pulled it off but for Galwan followed by IA going into offensive by taking over those peaks. Now if you read the ground situation. We have PLA encircled in a horse shoe shape formation south of PT and we can completely encircle them and wipe out each and every PLA soldier by going forward from Rechin La and cutting off the road to Rutog. In the North PT, we are dominating the ridgeline upto Sijap/Khurnak Fort and have effectively cut off their North PT garrison from Kongka La and South PT garrison. Even That Garrison is now at the mercy of IA with no chance of any resupply in case of hostilities and under attack from North and South PT shores. Chinese have effectively boxed themselves into a much worse situation than Doklam and they have no other option but to have even a bigger set back and loss of face. Irrespective of what they choose, they will loose. AND loose very badly.
Click to expand...



What about the pressure that this on give us on our coffers?

STEPHEN COHEN said:

India demolishes China’s new excuse for Ladakh stand-off in 3 points

India China border: The PLA’s concerns around the Indian infrastructure upgrade in Ladakh stem from the fear that it could pose a military threat to the multi-billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor
m.hindustantimes.com


We have Not yet given Sufficient Punishment to Pakistan

At least A Few Hammers must be dropped soon on Useful Targets like
Brigade HQ and SAM sites
Click to expand...

Think in a neutral perspective.
Why the DRDO gives priority to speed and precision than the range?
Of Course against China we need range also .
But to bogged down the Chinese a war is not an option.Both for India and China .Because its will be different game at all.
But a war with a Pakistan is certain .Because of the unstability in Pakistan.
If they cant manage their socio political economic arena ,surely it will change everything .Here where the Cold Start comes.
To become a successful one what we need is speed ,precision and perfect defense.
Shaurya,Pralay,Brahmos ,precision weapons like SAAW and defence of ABM and S 400.

But another thing we need for that is a perfect opportunity .And that should be given by Pakistan themselves .
One chance now we have is this LAC situation.
If Pak assets comes in to the play for Chinese then absolute sure IA opens another front in West .But this time it wont a punishment but a Cold Start .A highly intensive precision strikes , Air raids and Commando deployment .
And prior target would be GB not PoK .

But it seems Pakistan also knows about that danger .That is why they keeps a low profile .
But their fate will decide by Chinese

Cole_phelps said:
I have a question regarding taking back PoK.

If we recapture PoK and GB, what stops Paxtan to pressurize us through UN and other countries to carry out plebiscite?

The first condition is met and ball will be in our court. We will be perpetually defending our position where we haven't invested enough in counter narrative. Western rags are already infiltrated by jihadis and our jaichands will gladly vilify GoI internationally.

Better only to take back GB and wait till paxtan disintegrates.
Click to expand...
randomradio said:
The next one's gotta be big, and by big I mean gigantic. For example, take back PoK at the higher end or even a limited war, which includes taking out a sufficiently large part of their air force, like some force multipliers and a squadron or two worth of jets. Simple punishment won't be enough.
Click to expand...

GB would be the priority .
It is an easy target compares to PoK.
Precision strikes can take out their defensive position and Commando operation will do the rest
 
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SrNair said:
What about the pressure that this on give us on our coffers?
Click to expand...
No cost is higher for the pride of a nation. We have advantage over PLA in terms of strategic gains and also the additional area that we control now. I will not like to agree to status quo ante now as we have played our cards and pulling back will mean that PLA will occupy those areas which we vacate. It is now going to be a situation like Siachin. I know for sure that sooner or later, PLA will withdraw from the area or reduce its troop numbers allowing us to reduce our numbers.
Otherwise, we will have a limited skirmish which will be very short and intense.
 
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vstol Jockey said:
No cost is higher for the pride of a nation. We have advantage over PLA in terms of strategic gains and also the additional area that we control now. I will not like to agree to status quo ante now as we have played our cards and pulling back will mean that PLA will occupy those areas which we vacate. It is now going to be a situation like Siachin. I know for sure that sooner or later, PLA will withdraw from the area or reduce its troop numbers allowing us to reduce our numbers.
Otherwise, we will have a limited skirmish which will be very short and intense.
Click to expand...

What if the aim of Chinese is different?
What if their aim is to distract us from LoC and to reduce the resources for our Navy ?
We can afford that for sure .
But will it affect other operational prepardness?
 
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Over the years, China has pressurised India not only on the border but has also been condescending enough to ask New Delhi to maintain its non-aligned position and not get close to the United States.

But who will explain this to our thick head MEA babus.
 
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