Will Germany's refusal to deliver Typhoons to Saudi Arabia open up opportunities for the Rafale?
13 July 2023
On 6 July, we reported on the German Greens' opposition to Germany resuming arms deliveries to Saudi Arabia, when Riyadh intended to exercise the option for 48 additional Typhoon fighter jets to replace part of its ageing Tornado fleet.
Unsurprisingly, Chancellor Olaf Scholz seems to have preferred to preserve his coalition government over the prospect of exporting European fighter jets, since he announced that Germany's refusal to supply lethal weapons to Riyadh would remain in force until the war in Yemen was over.
Although a ceasefire agreement was signed at the end of May between the Yemeni authorities and their Saudi and Emirati allies, on the one hand, and the Tehran-backed Houthi rebels, on the other, this is not, strictly speaking, an agreement marking the end of the conflict, according to Berlin.
Interestingly, Olaf Scholz's SPD and its Green allies have agreed to authorise the sale of 6 A400M transport aircraft to the United Arab Emirates. Berlin's aim was probably to allay the concerns of Paris and Madrid following the arbitration over the Typhoon, even though the 3 countries are collaborating on the SCAF programme, as well as on the A400M (assembled in Spain), while relying on the fact that, as a transport aircraft, it is not strictly speaking an offensive weapons system, unlike the Typhoon.
The prospect of selling an additional 48 Eurofighter Typhoons to Saudi Arabia is several years away, due to opposition from the SPD and the German Greens.
It should be remembered that Germany is in no way demonstrating specific behaviour by refusing to supply arms, even co-produced arms, to a country for its own reasons. It should be remembered, for example, that France recently opposed the participation of the Franco-Italian Eurosam consortium in the Turkish programme to develop a medium-range anti-aircraft system, as well as the sale of Aster missiles to Ankara, despite Rome's insistence on the matter.
But the subtlety of Olaf Scholz's arbitration allowing the delivery of A400Ms to Abu Dhabi, while prohibiting the sale of Typhoons to Riyadh, could do much for Paris, which has been trying for several months to get back into the good graces of the Saudi authorities in terms of defence cooperation.
Indeed, there are several indirect reports of discussions between the two countries on the possibility of the Royal Saudi Air Force acquiring a fleet of Rafales as part of its modernisation drive.
These same echoes refer to a possible order for around a hundred French fighters, a sufficient number to undertake local production associated with a major transfer of technology, as was the case with India under the MRCA programme, which was ultimately aborted due to disagreements with the manufacturer selected by New Delhi.
The capabilities of the Rafale F5 unveiled by Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu as part of the 2024-2030 LPM make the French aircraft highly attractive, including to Saudi Arabia.
However, with the Typhoon option closed "at least until the end of the current term of office" according to Olaf Scholz, i.e. 2025, the Saudi authorities could indeed find the French alternative attractive, especially as a real dynamic is being undertaken on this subject in Paris, Given that Riyadh is now seeking to equip itself with aircraft that are free of American (and therefore veto-proof) and German technologies (ITAR Free), the Rafale is currently the only multi-purpose fighter to offer this in the West.
The ambitions set out in the Military Planning Law for the Rafale F5, such as the development of a combat drone derived from the Neuron, while leaving the door open to certain technological and industrial collaborations on the part of the operators of the French fighter, could also work in favour of the Dassault fighter in this dossier.
What's more, the two countries will now be in a better position to reach agreement on a subject as complex (and costly) as the local construction of around a hundred Rafales and the accompanying technology transfers, now that they have already signed a major agreement at the 2023 Paris Air Show to build Airbus Helicopters' H175 helicopters in the country from 2030 onwards.
Initially worth 25 billion Riyal, or €6 billion, the agreement provides for the construction of a production site for this 8-tonne class medium helicopter, capable of carrying up to 18 passengers at 270 km/h over a distance of almost 1,000 km, and will provide jobs for 8,500 local people.
Saudi Arabia and France have signed an agreement worth a minimum of €6 billion for the local production of Airbus Helicopters H175 medium helicopters.
The combination of these two events, at a time when there are very few options that are both operationally effective and meet Riyadh's expectations in terms of on-board technology, suggests that the Rafale's chances of gaining a foothold in Saudi Arabia are now very real, despite the difficult relations between President Macron and Mohammad bin Salman, the Crown Prince who effectively runs the country.
Finally, without being decisive, it should be remembered that Riyadh's main regional ally, the United Arab Emirates, has also chosen the Rafale to modernise its air force, which is undoubtedly an asset in the hands of the French negotiators, who will be able to highlight the significant interoperability between the two fighter fleets.
It remains to be seen how well-founded these speculations and rumours are, and whether the current favourable climate for Riyadh's choice of Rafale will be enough to overcome the serious difficulties that the two countries have encountered in their recent relations.