PAK-FA / Sukhoi Su-57 - Updates and Discussions

[zinswinsin]

It was known long ago that the Russians won't be mass producing the Stage 1 PAK FA.

There is no reason why one cannot produce Stage 2 PAK FA whilst skipping production of Stage 1.

The USAF has decided to modernise a whole lot of 4th gen aircraft whereas the RuAF is simply buying brand new, much more modern 4th gen aircraft. That's where Russia's money is going. And 5th gen tech will become available for the MKI and all other 4th gen Russian aircraft in the meantime. So it's not like the Russians will not be producing 5th gen avionics.

2016 was a long time ago? This project started in 2004 and the engines won't be ready for 2 decades.

And that's not the point. You know what the biggest advantage of getting to a new technology is? It's not really about how long you're going to have that weapon to yourself, but the operational experience through wars, training, war games, upgrades and general usage that is invaluable. Stealth operations have been going on in the USA since 1980's. Russia hasn't produced a operational model yet. Doctrines take time to form. You can't copy that shit beyond a rudimentary level.


China proved this exact point when buying a non combat carrier specifically for training.

Russia is 100% likely to run into production problems. It's not easy producing a fifth generation plane. Especially, when you don't produce anything for 5 years. What happens if Russia's engine gets delayed? Or infinite possibilities that can go wrong when skipping all the experience. So far Russia hasn't produced a single clean sheet aircraft design since the Soviets.

Remember, those scary stories about the stealth bombers Russia was going to produce? They ended up producing more T-160's. All their promised naval upgrades amounted to nothing. I'm supposed to believe Russia has somehow produced a wunderwaffe?

Give me a break. Russia is overrated. Hangover from the Soviet Union.

 

[randomradio]

2016 was a long time ago? This project started in 2004 and the engines won't be ready for 2 decades.

And that's not the point. You know what the biggest advantage of getting to a new technology is? It's not really about how long you're going to have that weapon to yourself, but the operational experience through wars, training, war games, upgrades and general usage that is invaluable. Stealth operations have been going on in the USA since 1980's. Russia hasn't produced a operational model yet. Doctrines take time to form. You can't copy that shit beyond a rudimentary level.


China proved this exact point when buying a non combat carrier specifically for training.

Russia is 100% likely to run into production problems. It's not easy producing a fifth generation plane. Especially, when you don't produce anything for 5 years. What happens if Russia's engine gets delayed? Or infinite possibilities that can go wrong when skipping all the experience. So far Russia hasn't produced a single clean sheet aircraft design since the Soviets.

Remember, those scary stories about the stealth bombers Russia was going to produce? They ended up producing more T-160's. All their promised naval upgrades amounted to nothing. I'm supposed to believe Russia has somehow produced a wunderwaffe?

Give me a break. Russia is overrated. Hangover from the Soviet Union.

If Russia fails, they fail. But outsiders won't be able to comment on that yet. While the Russians may have their problems, that doesn't mean it's an impossible task for them.

As for the engine, the Type 30 is already in flight testing. When IAF sees the aircraft, they will be the judge of whether it's good enough or not. As of now, we know that the FGFA is still active, albeit significantly delayed. And for good reason too, primarily concerning our own priorities. Because of the IAF's Flanker program, the Russian never lost their touch. They continued developing new technologies through us, and then for themselves.

As for their navy, they have brand new SSBNs and SSNs which even your navy officers have said the Russians are second to none. That's good enough as to their credibility. As for the surface fleet, they are working on frigates first, then the carrier will follow their new destroyers, so even they are working on a priority given their small budget.

Soviets? Russians? It's all semantics. They are basically the same people, and their current R&D system is superior to the Soviet system, albeit with significantly lesser money.

 

[zinswinsin]

Talk about different standards. Can you imagine if the F-35 project was run like the Russian PAKFA? Canceled for at least 5 years because it's too good /op.

The amount of criticism right now is vastly excessive.

If Russia fails, they fail. But outsiders won't be able to comment on that yet. While the Russians may have their problems, that doesn't mean it's an impossible task for them.

As for the engine, the Type 30 is already in flight testing. When IAF sees the aircraft, they will be the judge of whether it's good enough or not. As of now, we know that the FGFA is still active, albeit significantly delayed. And for good reason too, primarily concerning our own priorities. Because of the IAF's Flanker program, the Russian never lost their touch. They continued developing new technologies through us, and then for themselves.

As for their navy, they have brand new SSBNs and SSNs which even your navy officers have said the Russians are second to none. That's good enough as to their credibility. As for the surface fleet, they are working on frigates first, then the carrier will follow their new destroyers, so even they are working on a priority given their small budget.

Soviets? Russians? It's all semantics. They are basically the same people, and their current R&D system is superior to the Soviet system, albeit with significantly lesser money.

I guess we'll see in 2025.

 

[Ashutosh]

If Russia fails, they fail. But outsiders won't be able to comment on that yet. While the Russians may have their problems, that doesn't mean it's an impossible task for them..

Outsiders ? What are you? more Russian than the Russians? And every tom dick and Harry can comment on every other nation Isn't it ? This is a very generalized statement, more over, doesn't work on specifics of their failings.

As for the engine, the Type 30 is already in flight testing. When IAF sees the aircraft, they will be the judge of whether it's good enough or not. As of now, we know that the FGFA is still active, albeit significantly delayed. And for good reason too, primarily concerning our own priorities. Because of the IAF's Flanker program, the Russian never lost their touch. They continued developing new technologies through us, and then for themselves..

Type 30 is as "experimental" as its gets, and tell me one engine they have made post 1990, Russia has been out of touch for ages. FGFA is dead. It will come via MKI route if at all, not co-development. They didn't develop any "new technologies" most of it is is repainted or simple upgrades to Soviet Era tech.

As for their navy, they have brand new SSBNs and SSNs which even your navy officers have said the Russians are second to none. That's good enough as to their credibility. As for the surface fleet, they are working on frigates first, then the carrier will follow their new destroyers, so even they are working on a priority given their small budget..

Brand New subs : agreed, are they cutting edge : No. Officers are one thing equipment is totally another. RuNavy is just the repainted old ones, hell... our Ships are a gen or two ahead of their Russian counterparts. We lack in speed of shipbuilding not in tech, most of the ships that we have bought are out fitted with our own sensor suites.

Soviets? Russians? It's all semantics. They are basically the same people, and their current R&D system is superior to the Soviet system, albeit with significantly lesser money.

Nope, with great deal of contacts who have studied in Russia during Soviet times, have first hand knowledge that for almost 20 years there was not a single penny in Russian R&D and the entire establishment survived on ventilator. While that of its western Counterparts have thrived. they have literally zero Hitech manufacturing. Russian can only dream of he resources Soviets had. They are very very different.

 

[randomradio]

Talk about different standards. Can you imagine if the F-35 project was run like the Russian PAKFA? Canceled for at least 5 years because it's too good /op.

The amount of criticism right now is vastly excessive.

If the F-35's production run was halted, then I would have supported that move. Critics are always there to criticise, but common sense must take the lead, irrespective of what the critics say.

IAF was quick to dismiss concurrency.

 

[randomradio]

Outsiders ? What are you? more Russian than the Russians? And every tom dick and Harry can comment on every other nation Isn't it ? This is a very generalized statement, more over, doesn't work on specifics of their failings.

I am an outsider too. I depend on Russian insiders to tell me the story. That's why I don't take western reports on Russian programs seriously because they deviate so much from reality.

Type 30 is as "experimental" as its gets, and tell me one engine they have made post 1990, Russia has been out of touch for ages. FGFA is dead. It will come via MKI route if at all, not co-development. They didn't develop any "new technologies" most of it is is repainted or simple upgrades to Soviet Era tech.

We, as in India, will not develop the Type 30 engine. The Russians have the know-how and know-why to make any engine they want.

Brand New subs : agreed, are they cutting edge : No. Officers are one thing equipment is totally another. RuNavy is just the repainted old ones, hell... our Ships are a gen or two ahead of their Russian counterparts. We lack in speed of shipbuilding not in tech, most of the ships that we have bought are out fitted with our own sensor suites.

Our ships are good. But the Russians are yet to develop their own ships. Right now, their focus has only been on subs.

Nope, with great deal of contacts who have studied in Russia during Soviet times, have first hand knowledge that for almost 20 years there was not a single penny in Russian R&D and the entire establishment survived on ventilator. While that of its western Counterparts have thrived. they have literally zero Hitech manufacturing. Russian can only dream of he resources Soviets had. They are very very different.

Yeah. Sukhoi is succeeding only because of Indian orders, which have gone on to become export successes also. And it's not like they shy away from that fact. They have even officially pointed this out. As for Mig, they got lucky that IN paid for the development of the Mig-29K followed by IAF paying for the development of UPG. That's allowed Mig to stay in the game.

Russia does not need Soviet level resources. They do not have superpower aspirations anymore.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Russia Faces Military Aircraft Quandary | Indian Defence News

 

[zinswinsin]

If the F-35's production run was halted, then I would have supported that move. Critics are always there to criticise, but common sense must take the lead, irrespective of what the critics say.

IAF was quick to dismiss concurrency.

If production run was halted for a while to fix concurrency bugs the program would tens of billions in the extra red compared to the hundreds of millions it takes for a block upgrade kit.

It’s an absurd thought.

IAF can dismiss whatever they want. That isn’t the sigil of approval at all.

Just like the Russians can spin shit however they want and people will still buy the garbage.

 

[randomradio]

If production run was halted for a while to fix concurrency bugs the program would tens of billions in the extra red compared to the hundreds of millions it takes for a block upgrade kit.

It’s an absurd thought.

It was too late to save the F-35. It was always designed with concurrency in mind. But not the case with PAK FA. For the Russians, it doesn't matter if they mass produce now or later. Plus, the production house is a state owned unit, so there are no shareholders involved.

So you can't compare the US and Russia. The USAF should never have allowed concurrency in the first place.

IAF can dismiss whatever they want. That isn’t the sigil of approval at all.

I am referring to concurrency in the LCA and AMCA programs, not the F-35.

Just like the Russians can spin shit however they want and people will still buy the garbage.

Nobody buys "garbage". Just look up what they really export, it's all good stuff.

 

[zinswinsin]

It was too late to save the F-35. It was always designed with concurrency in mind. But not the case with PAK FA. For the Russians, it doesn't matter if they mass produce now or later. Plus, the production house is a state owned unit, so there are no shareholders involved.

So you can't compare the US and Russia. The USAF should never have allowed concurrency in the first place.



I am referring to concurrency in the LCA and AMCA programs, not the F-35.



Nobody buys "garbage". Just look up what they really export, it's all good stuff.

It’s all old Soviet designs modified with slightly new tech.

Where are the Mach 3 transports, shtorm super carriers and mig 41s?

Where are the wunderwaffes ?

The reality is Russia is broke and all their super weapon boasting is to shield their military tech inadequacies.

 

[randomradio]

It’s all old Soviet designs modified with slightly new tech.

Where are the Mach 3 transports, shtorm super carriers and mig 41s?

Where are the wunderwaffes ?

The reality is Russia is broke and all their super weapon boasting is to shield their military tech inadequacies.

You are in too much hurry, talking about stuff that the Russians themselves are planning to introduce well after 2025.

But yes, Russia is broke, but they can afford all this stuff by their standards.

 

[Ashutosh]

I am an outsider too. I depend on Russian insiders to tell me the story. That's why I don't take western reports on Russian programs seriously because they deviate so much from reality.

There is no such thing as Russian Insiders, Russia relies on disinformation and misinformation campaings as its weapon of offense that needs surprisingly little resources, and keeps everyone thinking while it has nothing to offer. You don't trust information on Russia coming from the west, That is agreed. 'The West' has a rather skewed perception of all countries that are 'not west'. Yet most information coming out of Russia isn't the gospel of truth either. However, Imperical metrics don't change, no one can 'skip' the learning curve and pull out an Excalibur out of stone as the miracle weapon.

We, as in India, will not develop the Type 30 engine. The Russians have the know-how and know-why to make any engine they want.

How is that relevant to the point ? Type 30 is an experiment, it is not a product a lot of thing s needs to be done by the time it becomes product. if Russians had the "the know-how and know-why to make any engine they want" wouldn't they be producing them already. This way of putting things is rather teenage-ish and juvenile.

Our ships are good. But the Russians are yet to develop their own ships. Right now, their focus has only been on subs.

and their subs aren't Cutting edge.. most are rehashed soviet era projects that were lying in limbo, that have been upgraded with off the shelf tech like newer computers, touchscreens and better corrosion resistant, noise absorbing paints but the machine remains the same.

Yeah. Sukhoi is succeeding only because of Indian orders, which have gone on to become export successes also. And it's not like they shy away from that fact. They have even officially pointed this out. As for Mig, they got lucky that IN paid for the development of the Mig-29K followed by IAF paying for the development of UPG. That's allowed Mig to stay in the game.

Russia does not need Soviet level resources. They do not have superpower aspirations anymore.

Sukhois are soviet era tech can we agree with that? Again Soviets had access to resources that made them a super power they were able to design made the aircraft worthy for a super power, it was great product and it made sales, all it needed was orders. Mig 29K is unfit for full load carrier operations but never the less it can still operate with decent capacity not at rated capacity. Now I am not contesting that, I am talking about specifically the period from the fall of the Soviet union till 2010-12. those 20 years were a generation lost, and now they are planing to skip a generation altogether to 6th gen, a two generation jump. I find it literally impossible by all metrics of development and research...

 

[randomradio]

There is no such thing as Russian Insiders, Russia relies on disinformation and misinformation campaings as its weapon of offense that needs surprisingly little resources, and keeps everyone thinking while it has nothing to offer. You don't trust information on Russia coming from the west, That is agreed. 'The West' has a rather skewed perception of all countries that are 'not west'. Yet most information coming out of Russia isn't the gospel of truth either. However, Imperical metrics don't change, no one can 'skip' the learning curve and pull out an Excalibur out of stone as the miracle weapon.

We have been getting PAK FA info straight from insiders who have been tasked with revealing information for years now.

How is that relevant to the point ? Type 30 is an experiment, it is not a product a lot of thing s needs to be done by the time it becomes product. if Russians had the "the know-how and know-why to make any engine they want" wouldn't they be producing them already. This way of putting things is rather teenage-ish and juvenile.

The Type 30 isn't an experiment.

and their subs aren't Cutting edge.. most are rehashed soviet era projects that were lying in limbo, that have been upgraded with off the shelf tech like newer computers, touchscreens and better corrosion resistant, noise absorbing paints but the machine remains the same.

lol

Sukhois are soviet era tech can we agree with that? Again Soviets had access to resources that made them a super power they were able to design made the aircraft worthy for a super power, it was great product and it made sales, all it needed was orders. Mig 29K is unfit for full load carrier operations but never the less it can still operate with decent capacity not at rated capacity. Now I am not contesting that, I am talking about specifically the period from the fall of the Soviet union till 2010-12. those 20 years were a generation lost, and now they are planing to skip a generation altogether to 6th gen, a two generation jump. I find it literally impossible by all metrics of development and research...

So what if something is Soviet era tech? Mig-29K can take off at MTOW from carriers.

 

[Ashutosh]

We have been getting PAK FA info straight from insiders who have been tasked with revealing information for years now.

The above is an assertion without reason.

The Type 30 isn't an experiment.

Assertion without reason. It is neather a product nor it is being mass produced.

lol

I see you are at the pinnacle of reasoning. This argument destroys reason, and the grey matter that comes with it.

So what if something is Soviet era tech? Mig-29K can take off at MTOW from carriers.

The world has moved ahead since and particularly after the tech explosion post 1990s. I guess you are more informed about Mig-29K scene than Admiral Arun Prakash (Retd).

 

[randomradio]

The above is an assertion without reason.



Assertion without reason. It is neather a product nor it is being mass produced.




I see you are at the pinnacle of reasoning. This argument destroys reason, and the grey matter that comes with it.



The world has moved ahead since and particularly after the tech explosion post 1990s. I guess you are more informed about Mig-29K scene than Admiral Arun Prakash (Retd).

Okay, so the Russians don't know what they are doing, even though I have known the Russians won't be mass producing the Stage 1 since 2014? So this news came out officially in 2018, but I have known since 2014. How is that?

I made this quote back on March 2016 on PDF.
The first variant may not be inducted beyond one or two squadrons in Russia, maybe not even that much. The second, third and fourth variants will be the standard production models. They will have new engines, new radars etc.

So how come I posted this information two years before the officially revealed information that PAK FA won't see mass production?

Assertion without reason indeed.

PAK FA production will happen once the Type 30 engine is ready for production. This was decided by the RuAF in 2014. And the IAF had always focused on the FGFA with the new engine anyway.

Admiral Prakash has spoken about something entirely different about the Mig-29K than what you are thinking about.

 

[zinswinsin]

what are the pak fa workers going to do for 5 years?

It's going to cost a lot to get manufacturing from 0 - 100 again

 

[zinswinsin]

Russia is testing a new drone similar to the CIA's stealthy RQ-170, and wants to turn it into a sixth-generation fighter

oh look, another Russian wunderwaffe.

 

[randomradio]

what are the pak fa workers going to do for 5 years?

It's going to cost a lot to get manufacturing from 0 - 100 again

It's a state-owned enterprise. SOEs don't have the issues you mentioned. The workers, small number anyway, will move to producing something else, like the Su-35.

 

[zinswinsin]

It's a state-owned enterprise. SOEs don't have the issues you mentioned. The workers, small number anyway, will move to producing something else, like the Su-35.

While losing experience on how to manufacture a fifth generation plane. Also no new workers can be trained.

 

[randomradio]

While losing experience on how to manufacture a fifth generation plane. Also no new workers can be trained.

Nope, this will not affect anything.

The way PAK FA has been designed, it uses many of the Flanker's production techniques.

Sukhoi manufacturing plant can roll out 5th-gen fighter jet: HAL
Raju said the state-of-the-art facility in Nasik will not require any major investment to reconfigure it to produce the fifth generation fighter aircraft (FGFA).

He said there was much in common between the FGFA and the Sukhoi 30MKI jet as both had structural similarities and the plant was well equipped to produce the new generation stealth fighter for which India and Russia have been in negotiations for nearly a decade.

"Definitely, it can be used for the FGFA. It will need a little bit of augmentation. We will not need major investment," Raju, the chairman and managing director of HAL, told PTI.