Rafale DH/EH of Indian Air Force : News and Discussions

[randomradio]

France has elections in 2022

A new assembly line in India will be justified only if IAF orders more jets

Now F 18 has created a new situation

If the orders placed are for a large enough number, the Indian line will export Rafales. Dassault is interested in making money. That's the point of the Indian line.

The SH is only for 15-18 jets as a lease for the IN. It's not changed anything for the IAF.

French people never opened a fighter jet line outside France till date. Wheather they opened or not we need another 54 rafales immediately. I didn't expected that we were still under the rule of baffoons ,or else these people will not drag the drill again and again under the changed indo pak & indo china relationship.

There have been plenty of French lines outside France.

 

[A Person]

French people never opened a fighter jet line outside France till date.

Mirage III/5 have been produced in Switzerland, Australia, Israel, and South Africa.

And the DRAL facilities at Nagpur are meant to be able to produce Rafale, in case of orders. For now they make Falcon bits so as to build up their employees' skills.

Mirage 2000 was never produced outside France

I remember France proposed to transfer the assembly line to India ca. 2006 if India ordered the Mirage 2000, because the line was scheduled to be closed in France to focus on the Rafale. Had India seized that deal, there could easily have been a hundred or so Indian-made Mirage 2000 by now.

 

[Ashwin]

We need Rafale to win the Swiss and Finnish deals, and also close a deal for an additional 24-36 jets for Qatar along with 36-48 jets for Indonesia, followed by a second deal of 36 for India and possibly a squadron for Morocco. The collective orders will be 200+ and will force Dassault to open up the Indian line for Rafale exports. The bigger the orders, the better for India.

All by 2022 ?

 

[randomradio]

All by 2022 ?

Funnily yes. The Swiss and Finnish plan to finish choosing their jets by next year, so any potential deal for both will apparently be signed in 2022.

I don't remember Qatar's deliveries, but if India's is finishing by 2022, so will Qatar's. So you can expect Qatar to order another 24+12 or 36 before 2022.

Let's not forget Indonesia going for at least 36 or 48 and could be signed before 2022 as well, since it seems to be a GTG. I remember a news report saying 2021, but let's push it by a year for good measure.

Speculating 36+64+36+36 = 172.

If India adds to the kitty, then we are talking 208 jets. And the French line's gonna be busy for some time due to Greek and French orders. The French also have to make up for the 24 jets they are losing to Greece and Croatia.

Even if the Swiss and Finnish deals fail, it's still 72+ jets from Qatar and Indonesia, which the French can't deliver in 6 years alongside a large French order of 45+24 jets.

 

[A Person]

I don't see a new Qatari order probable; since they should start getting their F-15 and Typhoon deliveries after the end of their current Rafale deliveries. It'd be tough to grow their air force even faster; plus the heat from Saudi Arabia against them has greatly abated.

Morocco is also very unlikely in my opinion; tourism is a large part of the country's economy and this sector was already suffering from islamic terrorism when covid-19 happened. Needless to say, they're not gonna make heavy investments in diversifying their air force. They have a lot of F-16, which are sufficient for their needs.

What might be possible is the long-overdue order from the United Arab Emirates. Their attempt at getting the F-35 is being frustrated by the US Senate and Israel's lobbyism, so ordering from France can be a way for them to convince the Americans to let them buy (as happened with Qatar, whose demand of F-15 had been languishing for years and was precipitously approved by the US shortly after they bought the Rafale).

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

There are rumours from industrial sources that a new order for 36 Rafale is being prepared in India. The order could be placed in April when the first squadron of Rafales will be completed.

 

[Hydra]

There are rumours from industrial sources that a new order for 36 Rafale is being prepared in India. The order could be placed in April when the first squadron of Rafales will be completed.

36 or 54. I saw some twitter handlers are telling 54 more to order,few months back actually . By tye way the remaining will be F4 or new F4 model?

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

36 or 54. I saw some twitter handlers are telling 54 more to order,few months back actually .

I don't know. Perhaps it's because it is still part of negociation

By tye way the remaining will be F4 or new F4 model?

All Indian Rafale are already able to be retrofitted to F4.2 Just by adding the new equipments and upgrading the software. By the end of 2024 it will be possible to deliver directly Rafale F4.2. If the new batch is built in India the first Rafale will be delivered after 4 years (3 years is normal time and one year is to set up the plant) so it will be in april 2025 so directly F4.2 + ISE. But perhaps they negociate 18 from France (or 12) and 36 in India to begin delivery in april 2024.

 

[Hydra]

I don't know. Perhaps it's because it is still part of negociation

Omg, my mistake. I intended to ask wheather it will be F3 or F4 model.

 

[raghu1974]

Funnily yes. The Swiss and Finnish plan to finish choosing their jets by next year, so any potential deal for both will apparently be signed in 2022.

I don't remember Qatar's deliveries, but if India's is finishing by 2022, so will Qatar's. So you can expect Qatar to order another 24+12 or 36 before 2022.

Let's not forget Indonesia going for at least 36 or 48 and could be signed before 2022 as well, since it seems to be a GTG. I remember a news report saying 2021, but let's push it by a year for good measure.

Speculating 36+64+36+36 = 172.

If India adds to the kitty, then we are talking 208 jets. And the French line's gonna be busy for some time due to Greek and French orders. The French also have to make up for the 24 jets they are losing to Greece and Croatia.

Even if the Swiss and Finnish deals fail, it's still 72+ jets from Qatar and Indonesia, which the French can't deliver in 6 years alongside a large French order of 45+24 jets

Irrespective of who orders Rafale jets and how many they order, for Dassault / France to open a new production line in India, it would need the whole of 114 jets of the Indian order to justify to its own people for this additional production line. That said, the bigger question to ask is, if we as a nation have $22-$24 billions (we may need 2-3 more Airbases to accommodate all these additional squadrons) from the next 5-6 years budgets to pay. The next question to be answered will be if the cost of a Rafale manufactured in India be less than the one manufactured at France. Our overall yearly outlay is around $19 billion for Capex from a $70 billion defense budget.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Irrespective of who orders Rafale jets and how many they order, for Dassault / France to open a new production line in India, it would need the whole of 114 jets of the Indian order to justify to its own people for this additional production line. That said, the bigger question to ask is, if we as a nation have $22-$24 billions (we may need 2-3 more Airbases to accommodate all these additional squadrons) from the next 5-6 years budgets to pay. The next question to be answered will be if the cost of a Rafale manufactured in India be less than the one manufactured at France. Our overall yearly outlay is around $19 billion for Capex from a $70 billion defense budget.

Dassault CEO Eric Trappier, who was my trainee when I was at Dassault, said that the next batch of Rafale that India would order could be produced in India (if it wished) without any quantity conditions. In terms of cost, the cost of a Rafale produced by DRAL is likely to be in the order of $80 million.

 

[Sathya]

Irrespective of who orders Rafale jets and how many they order, for Dassault / France to open a new production line in India, it would need the whole of 114 jets of the Indian order to justify to its own people for this additional production line. That said, the bigger question to ask is, if we as a nation have $22-$24 billions (we may need 2-3 more Airbases to accommodate all these additional squadrons) from the next 5-6 years budgets to pay. The next question to be answered will be if the cost of a Rafale manufactured in India be less than the one manufactured at France. Our overall yearly outlay is around $19 billion for Capex from a $70 billion defense budget.

Let's see if DRAL made Rafale price goes higher or lesser. . Unlike HAL where price would only go up like in case of Sukhoi.

Personally I won't miss to order the next 36 samples for which half the amount is already catered to.

Anyways Indian sources haven't given any info yet..

 

[Sathya]

Dassault CEO Eric Trappier, who was my trainee when I was at Dassault, said that the next batch of Rafale that India would order could be produced in India (if it wished) without any quantity conditions. In terms of cost, the cost of a Rafale produced by DRAL is likely to be in the order of $80 million.

That 80 million $ is higher or lower compared to France made Rafale?

Because I don't know if it's vannila cost or with everything included..

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

That 80 million $ is higher or lower compared to France made Rafale?

Because I don't know if it's vannila cost or with everything included..

For the first batch you get your Rafale at ~ € 95 million wich is $ 115 million at to day rate.

 

[Hydra]

Dassault CEO Eric Trappier, who was my trainee when I was at Dassault, said that the next batch of Rafale that India would order could be produced in India (if it wished) without any quantity conditions. In terms of cost, the cost of a Rafale produced by DRAL is likely to be in the order of $80 million.

If true, then its a highly competitive price. May be even lesser than F15EX or FA18 Blk3.

 

[raghu1974]

For the first batch you get your Rafale at ~ € 95 million wich is $ 115 million at to day rate.

We have to go for the Rafale as it is the preferred fighter for our IAF. I would be pleasantly surprised if we can get Rafale at a unit cost of $115 Million, considering the fact that there will be a need to house them in 2-3 more airbases. We also need to limit our purchases of Meteor & Scalp missiles to the bare minimum and should be able to integrate Astra Mk1, Mk2, IR, Bhramos NG, RudraM & SAAW with Rafale.

 

[randomradio]

Irrespective of who orders Rafale jets and how many they order, for Dassault / France to open a new production line in India, it would need the whole of 114 jets of the Indian order to justify to its own people for this additional production line.

Not really. Dassault will make a greater profit assembling the Rafale in India than in France. It's just economics. If the French line is bursting at the seams, then the Indian line can be used for spill over. Even if India doesn't order Rafales, the line can be used for making Rafales anyway. I'm sure Dassault would rather fulfill a contract than delay or cancel one simply because they want to build everything in France.

That said, the bigger question to ask is, if we as a nation have $22-$24 billions (we may need 2-3 more Airbases to accommodate all these additional squadrons) from the next 5-6 years budgets to pay. The next question to be answered will be if the cost of a Rafale manufactured in India be less than the one manufactured at France. Our overall yearly outlay is around $19 billion for Capex from a $70 billion defense budget.

At the expected 12/year, the yearly investment on the jets is $1.3B. It's something we can afford.

According to DRAL, Indian-made jets will be cheaper. But if HAL makes it, it will be extremely expensive.

Our capex is much lesser than $19B.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

We have to go for the Rafale as it is the preferred fighter for our IAF. I would be pleasantly surprised if we can get Rafale at a unit cost of $115 Million, considering the fact that there will be a need to house them in 2-3 more airbases. We also need to limit our purchases of Meteor & Scalp missiles to the bare minimum and should be able to integrate Astra Mk1, Mk2, IR, Bhramos NG, RudraM & SAAW with Rafale.

No € 95 was for the plane alone which, at the time of the contract was $ 105 Million but wich is today $ 115 million because € is stronger than $ for the moment. Compare to 105 Indian cost 80 is 25 % lesser and compare to 115 it is 35% lesser.

 

[raghu1974]

No € 95 was for the plane alone which, at the time of the contract was $ 105 Million but wich is today $ 115 million because € is stronger than $ for the moment. Compare to 105 Indian cost 80 is 25 % lesser and compare to 115 it is 35% lesser.

As long as the deal for 114 Rafale's doesn't go beyond $15 billion, we would be able to afford it across 6 years.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

As long as the deal for 114 Rafale's doesn't go beyond $15 billion, we would be able to afford it across 6 years.

It should be the cost of 114 build in India included some new weapons and two new bases and PBL but without new ISE. But normally DRAL would asks for some margin...