I have my doubts. India will now firmly go into Russian hands. There will be no TOT or MII for any of the US products, be it F-18SH or EMALS for our next carrier nor will there be F414INS6 engine tech. LCA MK2 is still born already. We will be forced to buy more from Russia and now French have emerged as the main beneficiary of this monumental US stupidity. There will be more Rafale and more MIG-29Ks/35s for IN & IAF.
Nothing of this sort will happen. The Americans have always known we will be going for FGFA, S-400 etc. All this CAATSA noise regarding India is just noise. Even if you read the actual quotes, it's obvious that they are not planning on sanctioning India.
Just look at the words used:
US May Block Sale Of Armed Drones As India Is Buying Arms From Russia
Last month, the Trump administration had cleared the export of armed, unmanned drones to close strategic partners such as India. According to Mr Thornberry, "This is one of the areas where the acquisition of the Russian anti-aircraft system will make the acquisition of that technology somewhat more difficult."
"Somewhat more difficult" is irrelevant. Delayed perhaps, but not cancelled.
And then--
However, Mr Thornberry has pointed out that while the US is disappointed with India's new military acquisition from Russia, sanctions against New Delhi were unlikely at the present stage.
So there are no plans to sanction us.
And then--
Neither will there be an India-specific exemption to CAATSA. "In the legislation that passed the house just last Thursday, there was additional flexibility in the law for nations that have historical ties and thus Russian equipment" said Mr Thornberry who added that "there will be some additional flexibility that will not just be limited to India but there are other countries that fall into that category".
It's not just India, but many countries will be exempted, like Indonesia, Vietnam etc.
CAATSA has been designed to stop the Middle East from buying Russian weapons. The S-400 for the Turks. The UAE plans to develop a light 5th gen aircraft with Russia. The Saudis are interested in the S-400 as well.
The US is also hoping to apply CAATSA sanctions on Iran when Iran decides to buy Flankers and the S-300/400 from Russia.
By mentioning India, they are hinting to other countries that they are serious about CAATSA. But India itself is safe from CAATSA. Even ACM Dhanoa pointed out that India will not be affected by CAATSA during the recent exercises.
So status quo for us. Anyway, we won't be buying stuff like the SH or F-16 from them.