Sukhoi Su-30MKI

[randomradio]

Do you really think that MII Rafales will start
Before 2022

The earliest MII agreement for Rafales will be signed in 2019 after the elections

It will take at least three years for the first MII Rafale to roll out

And the first MK1 A will also come after 2022

If we place a second order of 36 Rafales, the MII component of these Rafales will be far, far greater than any new MKI contract for 40 jets.

Dassault will start off with a full assembly line in Nagpur. And a lot of parts will be subcontracted to other companies right from the beginning. As the order book increases, more parts will be subcontracted.

So we have no option but to keep making Sukhois till 2023

We have no need to exercise such an option. If we go for more MKIs at this point in time, it's only because it was primarily a political decision and not an IAF decision.

And we are not going to "make" the MKI if we order more, just assemble from kits, that's not even full assembly. Even though HAL signed up to produce 222 MKIs, it was Russia that produced 162 of them.

 

[randomradio]

You can be really thick sometimes . One of the only reason more MKI's are being sought , apart from catering to the attrition , is in the coming 3-5 years , there's going to be no sign of either the MK1a or the additional Rafales whether imported or thru MII.

If we order 40 MKIs today, we will get them all only by late 2023 or early 2024. There's no difference in time frame whether we order 40 MKIs or 36 Rafales.

Once an order is placed, it takes 3 years to get the first jet, either MKI or Rafale, and it takes at least 2.5 years to have both squadrons delivered. And since we know for sure that no contract is going to be signed this year, or even early next year, since elections can happen only in April or May, a contract can be signed only after the middle of next year. Hell, you can say contract negotiations can start in the middle of next year, after which we could take at least 6 months to actually sign the contract. This time frame can be met for both MKI and Rafale since both are under IGAs already, cutting out all the bureaucratic approvals. So if you expect a contract in early 2020, then we will get the first jet only in 2023 and take deliveries until mid 2025.

The only option that's better than choosing Rafale or MKI is choosing Rafale and MKI, 2 squadrons each. But both will be delivered in the same timeframe.

But the benefit is the 36 Rafales will actually have an MII component while the MKIs will simply be CKDs delivered from Russia. More investment on the MKI is a waste of money. The IAF has more MKIs than they need. It doesn't add to the capability of the air force at all. It's in fact more much more beneficial to order 54 Rafales than 40 MKIs and 36 Rafales.

The first tranche of Rafales are to be delivered next year, from 2019 to 2022. The second tranche can be delivered from 2023 to 2025 from Nagpur. And MII deliveries through tender can begin from 2026. That's Dassault's plan. And they plan to start MII with the second tranche. In fact, if Dassault is assured of the navy's order of 57, Dassault can deliver the IAF's 36 much faster than the MKIs can come in.

What's more, the MKI contract has no offsets obligation, while the second tranche order of 36 Rafales will still come with 50% offsets. So the overall cost of the Rafale will in fact be cheaper than the MKI.

 

[randomradio]

Here's the latest from PKS's blog where he seems to indicate that the latest batch of MKI's to be ordered from HAL will be Super Sukhoi's , presumably in the form of CKD's from Russia. Otherwise , the concept of CKD's from Russia doesn't make sense .

Super Sukhoi is an MLU program, nothing to do with new build MKIs.

 

[vstol Jockey]

Super Sukhoi is an MLU program, nothing to do with new build MKIs.

It is very much possible that these new 40-60 will be of super SU-30MKI standard. This will give HAL experience in upgrading present lot of SU-30MKI to super SU standard.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Super Sukhoi is an MLU program, nothing to do with new build MKIs.

True. I got mixed up.

EXCLUSIVE: As India’s Sukhoi Fighters Flex Muscle Abroad, IAF ‘Open’ To 40 More

 

[_Anonymous_]

It is very much possible that these new 40-60 will be of super SU-30MKI standard. This will give HAL experience in upgrading present lot of SU-30MKI to super SU standard.

This is what I wanted to articulate @randomradio

 

[_Anonymous_]

If we order 40 MKIs today, we will get them all only by late 2023 or early 2024. There's no difference in time frame whether we order 40 MKIs or 36 Rafales.

Once an order is placed, it takes 3 years to get the first jet, either MKI or Rafale, and it takes at least 2.5 years to have both squadrons delivered. And since we know for sure that no contract is going to be signed this year, or even early next year, since elections can happen only in April or May, a contract can be signed only after the middle of next year. Hell, you can say contract negotiations can start in the middle of next year, after which we could take at least 6 months to actually sign the contract. This time frame can be met for both MKI and Rafale since both are under IGAs already, cutting out all the bureaucratic approvals. So if you expect a contract in early 2020, then we will get the first jet only in 2023 and take deliveries until mid 2025.

The only option that's better than choosing Rafale or MKI is choosing Rafale and MKI, 2 squadrons each. But both will be delivered in the same timeframe.

But the benefit is the 36 Rafales will actually have an MII component while the MKIs will simply be CKDs delivered from Russia. More investment on the MKI is a waste of money. The IAF has more MKIs than they need. It doesn't add to the capability of the air force at all. It's in fact more much more beneficial to order 54 Rafales than 40 MKIs and 36 Rafales.

The first tranche of Rafales are to be delivered next year, from 2019 to 2022. The second tranche can be delivered from 2023 to 2025 from Nagpur. And MII deliveries through tender can begin from 2026. That's Dassault's plan. And they plan to start MII with the second tranche. In fact, if Dassault is assured of the navy's order of 57, Dassault can deliver the IAF's 36 much faster than the MKIs can come in.

What's more, the MKI contract has no offsets obligation, while the second tranche order of 36 Rafales will still come with 50% offsets. So the overall cost of the Rafale will in fact be cheaper than the MKI.

PKS seems to suggest that we'd have an agreement on the Super Sukhoi programme before the year is out . Otherwise whatever you've posted above makes sense .

 

[advaidhya]

Super Sukhoi CKDs of 40 will be followed with ToT to make the same here? Else, it will be meaningless. India is better off making the older Sukhois as they are still quite good. Some upgrades of avionics can be done regularly to keep them up to date. Importing without getting ToT makes no sense

 

[vstol Jockey]

Super Sukhoi CKDs of 40 will be followed with ToT to make the same here? Else, it will be meaningless. India is better off making the older Sukhois as they are still quite good. Some upgrades of avionics can be done regularly to keep them up to date. Importing without getting ToT makes no sense

I THINK that a lot of tech from Pak-FA is going to flow into these 40-60 SU-30MKIs. Including AESA radar.

 

[randomradio]

It is very much possible that these new 40-60 will be of super SU-30MKI standard. This will give HAL experience in upgrading present lot of SU-30MKI to super SU standard.

This is what I wanted to articulate @randomradio

No, it's only standard MKIs. The only difference is the 40 MKIs will be able to carry Brahmos A also.

HAL has offered each MKI at 425Cr. That's too expensive. But it's not Super MKIs.

A better option is to buy the 40 MKIs from Russia at 350Cr instead.

 

[randomradio]

I THINK that a lot of tech from Pak-FA is going to flow into these 40-60 SU-30MKIs. Including AESA radar.

The first set of jets to get the Super MKI upgrade will be the two squadrons in Pune. There is no plan to have newly built Super MKIs.

 

[randomradio]

PKS seems to suggest that we'd have an agreement on the Super Sukhoi programme before the year is out . Otherwise whatever you've posted above makes sense .

I had always supported the induction of 40 more MKIs, but that was back in 2014-15-16, so that we can get parallel deliveries of the first 36 Rafale and the MKIs. It was basically meant as a follow on order to the 42 that were last delivered in 2015. IAF missed the bus then because they were hoping to induct the MMRCA Rafales.

Right now, nothing should stop the second Rafale tranche, or else MMRCA 2.0 is going to become more difficult for the Rafale. We don't want that.

 

[vstol Jockey]

I had always supported the induction of 40 more MKIs, but that was back in 2014-15-16, so that we can get parallel deliveries of the first 36 Rafale and the MKIs. It was basically meant as a follow on order to the 42 that were last delivered in 2015. IAF missed the bus then because they were hoping to induct the MMRCA Rafales.

Right now, nothing should stop the second Rafale tranche, or else MMRCA 2.0 is going to become more difficult for the Rafale. We don't want that.

Long back on another forum, I had given you a likely break up of IAF sqns by 2027 when I justified LSA/MSA. And that was 15sqns of SU-30MKI, 5sqns of Rafale, 3 sqns each of M2K, Mig-29 & Jags and finally six sqns of LCA. Making it a total of 35 sqns. I had than told you that we will still be short of about 150 aircraft while the replacement of M2k+Mig-29s and Jags will become due in 2030. Which will mean shortage of another 200 plus aircraft. So I had stated a shortage of over 350 aircraft. This does not include 165 aircraft for IN carrier fleet.

 

[Himanshu]

Here's the latest from PKS's blog where he seems to indicate that the latest batch of MKI's to be ordered from HAL will be Super Sukhoi's , presumably in the form of CKD's from Russia. Otherwise , the concept of CKD's from Russia doesn't make sense .

Rationalising the proposal for 40 additional Su-30s, Raju says they are needed to carry the BrahMos air launched cruise missile (ALCM).

“We are required to modify 40-odd Sukhoi-30s to carry the BrahMos ALCM. Instead of upgrading older fighters, with a shorter residual lifespan, it would be better to build three more squadrons of Sukhois with the capability to carry BrahMos missiles”, said Raju. That would involve buying the fighter in ready to assemble kits from Russia and putting them together in Nashik.

HAL officials say they wanted to be the lead agency, but Sukhoi has indicated it wants a 50 per cent share in this lucrative contract to upgrade the fighter’s avionics, including radar, glass cockpit displays, electronic warfare systems, warning systems and jammers.

“The IAF has already frozen its upgrade requirements. We are now waiting for the commercial proposal from Russia”, says the HAL chairman.

HAL estimates that an avionics upgrade for the Su-30 would cost upward of Rs 100 crore (one billion) per aircraft, placing the cost of upgrading 312 fighters at Rs 31,200 crore (312 billion).

HAL officials say the upgrade will have two distinct parts. In Phase I, Sukhoi would take over some IAF Su-30s and use them as prototypes to install and certify new-generation avionics and weapons upgrades. Subsequently, HAL would install those upgrades into the entire fleet.

Phase II, which would involve India-specific enhancements, would be designed and developed by HAL and also incorporated onto the fighter by HAL alone.

Broadsword: HAL offers 40 more Sukhoi-30s at one-third Rafale’s cost

 

[vstol Jockey]

Rationalising the proposal for 40 additional Su-30s, Raju says they are needed to carry the BrahMos air launched cruise missile (ALCM).

“We are required to modify 40-odd Sukhoi-30s to carry the BrahMos ALCM. Instead of upgrading older fighters, with a shorter residual lifespan, it would be better to build three more squadrons of Sukhois with the capability to carry BrahMos missiles”, said Raju. That would involve buying the fighter in ready to assemble kits from Russia and putting them together in Nashik.

HAL officials say they wanted to be the lead agency, but Sukhoi has indicated it wants a 50 per cent share in this lucrative contract to upgrade the fighter’s avionics, including radar, glass cockpit displays, electronic warfare systems, warning systems and jammers.

“The IAF has already frozen its upgrade requirements. We are now waiting for the commercial proposal from Russia”, says the HAL chairman.

HAL estimates that an avionics upgrade for the Su-30 would cost upward of Rs 100 crore (one billion) per aircraft, placing the cost of upgrading 312 fighters at Rs 31,200 crore (312 billion).

HAL officials say the upgrade will have two distinct parts. In Phase I, Sukhoi would take over some IAF Su-30s and use them as prototypes to install and certify new-generation avionics and weapons upgrades. Subsequently, HAL would install those upgrades into the entire fleet.

Phase II, which would involve India-specific enhancements, would be designed and developed by HAL and also incorporated onto the fighter by HAL alone.

Broadsword: HAL offers 40 more Sukhoi-30s at one-third Rafale’s cost

Please go thru the bold part. These upgrades are for Super SU-30MKIs and will come as standard for the new built. When I use capitals for my THINK, it means something. Russians are keen to show that their upgraded Su-30MKI will be far ahead of Rafale in every department including active cancellation.

 

[randomradio]

Long back on another forum, I had given you a likely break up of IAF sqns by 2027 when I justified LSA/MSA. And that was 15sqns of SU-30MKI, 5sqns of Rafale, 3 sqns each of M2K, Mig-29 & Jags and finally six sqns of LCA. Making it a total of 35 sqns. I had than told you that we will still be short of about 150 aircraft while the replacement of M2k+Mig-29s and Jags will become due in 2030. Which will mean shortage of another 200 plus aircraft. So I had stated a shortage of over 350 aircraft. This does not include 165 aircraft for IN carrier fleet.

13-14 squadrons of MKI = 272, officially 13.5 squadrons
12 squadrons of Rafale = 200 + 36
10 squadrons of Gripen, now MCA = 200 (not AMCA)
6 squadrons of LCA = 123

About 800-850 jets.

This is what the IAF has planned as of now for 4th gen stuff.

This is separate from the requirements of FGFA and AMCA, and their deliveries will overlap since the production of the 400+ Rafale and MCA will take a very long time at 28 jets a year in total for both. Meaning, production of Rafale and MCA could go into the 2040s, parallel with induction of FGFA and AMCA.

Which basically means the IAF needs a 3rd jet in production alongside Rafale and MCA to get to 42 squadrons before 2032. And that was supposed to be the FGFA.

 

[vstol Jockey]

13-14 squadrons of MKI = 272, officially 13.5 squadrons
12 squadrons of Rafale = 200 + 36
10 squadrons of Gripen, now MCA = 200 (not AMCA)
6 squadrons of LCA = 123

About 800-850 jets.

This is what the IAF has planned as of now for 4th gen stuff.

This is separate from the requirements of FGFA and AMCA, and their deliveries will overlap since the production of the 400+ Rafale and MCA will take a very long time at 28 jets a year in total for both. Meaning, production of Rafale and MCA could go into the 2040s, parallel with induction of FGFA and AMCA.

Which basically means the IAF needs a 3rd jet in production alongside Rafale and MCA to get to 42 squadrons before 2032. And that was supposed to be the FGFA.

I had given you calculations of last 15 yrs to show that even with TE fleet, IAF has an attrition of 6-8 fighters every year. This means a loss of over 80-100 aircraft by 2030. Ad I had stated that FGFA will make up for this attrition or you can say that LSA/MSA will make up for this attrition.

 

[advaidhya]

13-14 squadrons of MKI = 272, officially 13.5 squadrons
12 squadrons of Rafale = 200 + 36
10 squadrons of Gripen, now MCA = 200 (not AMCA)
6 squadrons of LCA = 123

About 800-850 jets.

This is what the IAF has planned as of now for 4th gen stuff.

This is separate from the requirements of FGFA and AMCA, and their deliveries will overlap since the production of the 400+ Rafale and MCA will take a very long time at 28 jets a year in total for both. Meaning, production of Rafale and MCA could go into the 2040s, parallel with induction of FGFA and AMCA.

Which basically means the IAF needs a 3rd jet in production alongside Rafale and MCA to get to 42 squadrons before 2032. And that was supposed to be the FGFA.

From where did 236 rafales come in? Why will India spend such huge amount to buy Rafales and then again spend huge amounts to maintain it through regular spare parts? Even going by cost of $110 million per plane, 200 extra plane will cost $20 billion. The planes will need integration of weapons package and spare parts which will cost $10 billion for next 10 years. With inflation, it will go even higher. This does not sound reasonable at all.

Gripen is set to be completed by 2024-26 with FOC. Gripen has lied several times about its specifications. It was initially expected to be 7ton empty weight but now it is 8tons. If India has to buy that plane, it has to undergo a lengthy test after it achieves FOC from various fields and climates of India. That will take at least 2 years. So, ordering Gripen is out of question

LCA sounds right. But, several squadrons of MK2 also has to be considered by 2027-28.


FGFA project is dead. India is going ahead with AMCA. Do you have any source of FGFA being revived? Also, how is it possible to revive it so quickly?

 

[randomradio]

I had given you calculations of last 15 yrs to show that even with TE fleet, IAF has an attrition of 6-8 fighters every year. This means a loss of over 80-100 aircraft by 2030. Ad I had stated that FGFA will make up for this attrition or you can say that LSA/MSA will make up for this attrition.

Yeah. We need 4-5 squadrons more to compensate for attrition.

IAF expects a production rate of 14/year for the tender aircraft. So if we buy 200 TE jets, we will need 14 years. If we sign the contract in 2022, we will get the first MII delivered aircraft only in 2027 (much sooner in case of Rafale). And the last of the 200 in 2040. Which means the tender would have delivered only 80 jets by 2032. This is best case.

MCA can be 16 per year, and the first squadron is expected by 2028. So the last jet will be delivered by 2040 as well. Only 80 jets would be delivered by 2032. This is best case as well. Production will have to be shared with any possible LCA exports and N-MCA for the navy, since the lines will be shared.

That's just 160 jets by 2032, 8 squadrons, if they stick to the current timeline.

If we go for a squadron breakup in 2032:
MKI = 13
LCA = 6
M-2000 = 3
Jaguar = 4... 2 squadrons retired
Rafale = 2
TE jet = 4
MCA = 4
Mig-29 = 0... phased out

That's only 36 squadrons without considering attrition. Remove 5 squadrons worth of jets by 2030, we will be back at 31 squadrons even with 2 fully functioning production lines. And this is our best case scenario. How awesome!!!

So we need one squadron of FGFA AND MSA being delivered simultaneously to the IAF every year from 2027 onwards just to reach 42 squadrons in 2032.

If we assume the MSA doesn't exist, then the IAF will need 2 more Rafale squadrons from France, 3 PAK FA squadrons from Russia and 5 FGFA squadrons from HAL, all inducted in parallel.

That 10 squadron difference is too much. I suppose only your jet can save the IAF.

 

[randomradio]

From where did 236 rafales come in? Why will India spend such huge amount to buy Rafales and then again spend huge amounts to maintain it through regular spare parts? Even going by cost of $110 million per plane, 200 extra plane will cost $20 billion. The planes will need integration of weapons package and spare parts which will cost $10 billion for next 10 years. With inflation, it will go even higher. This does not sound reasonable at all.

Rafale is cheaper than MKI.

Gripen is set to be completed by 2024-26 with FOC. Gripen has lied several times about its specifications. It was initially expected to be 7ton empty weight but now it is 8tons. If India has to buy that plane, it has to undergo a lengthy test after it achieves FOC from various fields and climates of India. That will take at least 2 years. So, ordering Gripen is out of question

Better wait for actual details.

LCA sounds right. But, several squadrons of MK2 also has to be considered by 2027-28.

Mk2 is what I refer to as MCA.

FGFA project is dead. India is going ahead with AMCA. Do you have any source of FGFA being revived? Also, how is it possible to revive it so quickly?

FGFA is an India specific project. The RM has asked the Russians to continue with the project. So the decision to join has simply been postponed.