Sukhoi Su-30MKI

[vstol Jockey]

Yeah. We need 4-5 squadrons more to compensate for attrition.

IAF expects a production rate of 14/year for the tender aircraft. So if we buy 200 TE jets, we will need 14 years. If we sign the contract in 2022, we will get the first MII delivered aircraft only in 2027 (much sooner in case of Rafale). And the last of the 200 in 2040. Which means the tender would have delivered only 80 jets by 2032. This is best case.

MCA can be 16 per year, and the first squadron is expected by 2028. So the last jet will be delivered by 2040 as well. Only 80 jets would be delivered by 2032. This is best case as well. Production will have to be shared with any possible LCA exports and N-MCA for the navy, since the lines will be shared.

That's just 160 jets by 2032, 8 squadrons, if they stick to the current timeline.

If we go for a squadron breakup in 2032:
MKI = 13
LCA = 6
M-2000 = 3
Jaguar = 4... 2 squadrons retired
Rafale = 2
TE jet = 4
MCA = 4
Mig-29 = 0... phased out

That's only 36 squadrons without considering attrition. Remove 5 squadrons worth of jets by 2030, we will be back at 31 squadrons even with 2 fully functioning production lines. And this is our best case scenario. How awesome!!!

So we need one squadron of FGFA AND MSA being delivered simultaneously to the IAF every year from 2027 onwards just to reach 42 squadrons in 2032.

If we assume the MSA doesn't exist, then the IAF will need 2 more Rafale squadrons from France, 3 PAK FA squadrons from Russia and 5 FGFA squadrons from HAL, all inducted in parallel.

That 10 squadron difference is too much. I suppose only your jet can save the IAF.

Long back ACM Raha had stated that IAF will have 42 sqn strength by 2027. I than wrote to Parrikar and when I met him just before he moved to Goa, he also laughed at the ACM had stated. I can't share the real conversation as it is privillaged between him and me but even he knew that we are in big mess as far as IAF is concerned.

 

[vstol Jockey]

If we assume the MSA doesn't exist, then the IAF will need 2 more Rafale squadrons from France, 3 PAK FA squadrons from Russia and 5 FGFA squadrons from HAL, all inducted in parallel.

MSA is very much happenning. I have now started a news blackout about it and will hence forth not share what I am doing and where we are w.r.t it. However the recent news that Aero India 2019 will happen in this year in BKT is bad news. I have been told that it is not true.
MSAas and when starts full scale production will touch 36 ac/yr production level within two yrs of start of production.

 

[randomradio]

Long back ACM Raha had stated that IAF will have 42 sqn strength by 2027. I than wrote to Parrikar and when I met him just before he moved to Goa, he also laughed at the ACM had stated. I can't share the real conversation as it is privillaged between him and me but even he knew that we are in big mess as far as IAF is concerned.

Yeah, even he publicly stated that the IAF will have only 39 squadrons by 2027. And I bet this was without attrition.

The MCA is going to be a circus show anyway.

 

[randomradio]

MSA is very much happenning. I have now started a news blackout about it and will hence forth not share what I am doing and where we are w.r.t it. MSAas and when starts full scale production will touch 36 ac/yr production level within two yrs of start of production.

Brilliant. If 36/year happens, then we will be able to reach 42 squadrons. Good luck with the MSA.

However the recent news that Aero India 2019 will happen in this year in BKT is bad news. I have been told that it is not true.

Then it will be Aero India 2018. Lucknow is the last place for an air show. I guess rumours only.

 

[vstol Jockey]

Then it will be Aero India 2018. Lucknow is the last place for an air show.

I just do not know how can anyone even think of it as a place suitable for such an event. Someone is smoking Malana weed.

 

[advaidhya]

MCA can be 16 per year, and the first squadron is expected by 2028. So the last jet will be delivered by 2040 as well. Only 80 jets would be delivered by 2032. This is best case as well. Production will have to be shared with any possible LCA exports and N-MCA for the navy, since the lines will be shared.

What is restricting MCA production to 16 a year? Why can't it be higher, say, 32 a year or more?

IAF expects a production rate of 14/year for the tender aircraft. So if we buy 200 TE jets, we will need 14 years. If we sign the contract in 2022, we will get the first MII delivered aircraft only in 2027 (much sooner in case of Rafale). And the last of the 200 in 2040. Which means the tender would have delivered only 80 jets by 2032. This is best case.

Is there a quota system for countries that France can produce 14 a year and India 16 a year for fighter jets?

Long back ACM Raha had stated that IAF will have 42 sqn strength by 2027. I than wrote to Parrikar and when I met him just before he moved to Goa, he also laughed at the ACM had stated. I can't share the real conversation as it is privillaged between him and me but even he knew that we are in big mess as far as IAF is concerned.

Of course not, India is not going to have 42 squadrons by 2027. 10 years is a small time and there are many aircrafts to retire. As of now, India has 42 squadrons including MiG21 . But about 300 planes will have to be retired including MiG21 and MiG27 by 2027. Hence, even with Rafale, LCA and additional Su30, India will have 5 squadrons less than what it has today.

 

[Sathya]

Went through old pages ..

What happened to HAL BTA, LCH & LUH ?

No news about any milestones being achieved ..

After Dhruv , thought chopper development will be at accelerated pace..

 

[randomradio]

What is restricting MCA production to 16 a year? Why can't it be higher, say, 32 a year or more?

The MCA will use LCA production facilities. But if we have export orders for LCA Mk1A, some production will be diverted there. If there's N-MCA, then some production will be diverted there. Different story if IAF can absorb the full production capacity anyway, considering the lower capabilities vis a vis other jets being produced.

There is very little chance of drastically increasing production capacity because the HAL airport does not have enough real estate. That's why even AMCA production will happen in a different facility.

Is there a quota system for countries that France can produce 14 a year and India 16 a year for fighter jets?

14/year is MII requirement.

 

[randomradio]

I just do not know how can anyone even think of it as a place suitable for such an event. Someone is smoking Malana weed.

I just hope better sense prevails.

 

[smestarz]

Your numbers,, really khayali pulav at best
So IAF plans to induct 200 Rafales, , and 200 Gripens etc
Where do they bring in the money for that?
And these planes are what? 4th Gen, and 5th gen wannabes?
What would be their life in IAF? 40 years or so?
So since you talk of these 800 jets, till 2060 when exactly are we going to use 5th gen or later?
The 5th Gen era is now, the Chinese have a 5th plane, people say its not that capable, people said a lot of crap about F-22 also and now they admit that its one of the best planes flying.
Chinese may not have a perfect 5th gen planes yet, but if you see a bit differently,
J-20 as per me is not a fighter, but its long range Strike plane, very much to the stype of Su-34, So it comes in what some people call "heavy category" it will try to be VLO, carry its heavy missiles internally and hit strategic targets. Say Delhi or Kolkata.
J-31 is the version that will be like F22/F35 capability plane.
China is not as open as rest of the world, so if going by some analysis of some experts it good, but its best not to be caught napping

13-14 squadrons of MKI = 272, officially 13.5 squadrons
12 squadrons of Rafale = 200 + 36
10 squadrons of Gripen, now MCA = 200 (not AMCA)
6 squadrons of LCA = 123

About 800-850 jets.

This is what the IAF has planned as of now for 4th gen stuff.

This is separate from the requirements of FGFA and AMCA, and their deliveries will overlap since the production of the 400+ Rafale and MCA will take a very long time at 28 jets a year in total for both. Meaning, production of Rafale and MCA could go into the 2040s, parallel with induction of FGFA and AMCA.

Which basically means the IAF needs a 3rd jet in production alongside Rafale and MCA to get to 42 squadrons before 2032. And that was supposed to be the FGFA.

 

[smestarz]

No, making say Screws in India for Rafale in France, does not consitute as make in India
Thus, When we export grains, and the foreign company makes flour there and sells the flour, that does not consitute as make in India
Make in India would consitute more or less making the final product in India,

So making few parts of Falcon, can constitute as PART OF MII, its not really MII because the Falcon jets are being made and assembled in France.
So, MII has many aspects, where one part was Assembling in India, whcih we are doing for a very long time
Second was to make some parts in India and rest were made in India and the final product assembled here, We are doing that with Su-30 MKI
The final MII is to produce the entire product in India, hopefully with Indian content replacing the foreign content.
If going by your version, We are already doing MII for Chinnok..
Does Dassault have their jigs and fittings and line in DRAL in India?

MII already start with the current contract of 36 Rafale. MII is not the same than Rafale MII, for the moment it's mainly Falcon 2000 MII, but there is also Rafale parts which will be produced in India. I have translated an internal news from Dassault in a serie of 10 posts begining here:
MMRCA 2.0 - Update and discussion
This step is needed to set up Rafale MII, because Falcon 2000 MII is less complex compare to Rafale MII and it's a good approach to create skill in India, and an ecosystem, both needed for Rafale MII. Rafale MII will start with the next batch of Rafale even if it is only 36 Rafale.
The posts, I translated show the Dassault approach, but there is such plan for Thales and SAFRAN too.

 

[smestarz]

That was more or less the first step that lead to the closure of HF-24 Mk2. the attitude was similar, and where did it get us?
Cheaper MiG-21 and no defence industry of our own, bravo

No, it's only standard MKIs. The only difference is the 40 MKIs will be able to carry Brahmos A also.

HAL has offered each MKI at 425Cr. That's too expensive. But it's not Super MKIs.

A better option is to buy the 40 MKIs from Russia at 350Cr instead.

 

[advaidhya]

That was more or less the first step that lead to the closure of HF-24 Mk2. the attitude was similar, and where did it get us?
Cheaper MiG-21 and no defence industry of our own, bravo

MiG21 was better than Marut and USSR allowed manufacturing in India for it. So, I would not call it as a bad step. AFAIK, MiG21 was made in India from scratch. It included radar, engine and many other accessories too. Overall, it benefited India.

 

[Sathya]

MSA is very much happenning. I have now started a news blackout about it and will hence forth not share what I am doing and where we are w.r.t it. However the recent news that Aero India 2019 will happen in this year in BKT is bad news. I have been told that it is not true.
MSAas and when starts full scale production will touch 36 ac/yr production level within two yrs of start of production.

If Aero India is pre poned , will you be able to show case MSA as planned for 2019 ?

I thought I ll personally visit Bangalore aero India for MSA .
Its 5 hours drive for me.

 

[_Anonymous_]

If Aero India is pre poned , will you be able to show case MSA as planned for 2019 ?

I thought I ll personally visit Bangalore aero India for MSA .
Its 5 hours drive for me.

It's rumored to be in Lucknow. But I second your thought . If MSA is going to be highlighted , I'd travel to Bangalore or Lucknow or Delhi too . Do keep us updated . @vstol Jockey

 

[Shekhar Singh]

Aero India Show Shifts To Lucknow & Over 3 Months Early

 

[_Anonymous_]

Courtesy PKS 's Trishul blog

TRISHUL: Super Su-30MKI Has Taken Shape


The Super Su-30MKI airframe will also be flight-certified for flying terrain-hugging flight profiles (about 100 metres ASL), thanks to the terrain avoidance mode of operation of the AESA-MMR. Existing Su-30MKIs are not able to fly ultra low-level flight profiles since the NO-11M PESA-MMR does not have the terrain avoidance operating mode.

The last paragraph which I've reproduced here is intriguing. Your views @randomradio ; @vstol Jockey

 

[Shekhar Singh]

Yes, Aero India Show Shifts To Lucknow & Over 3 Months Early

 

[Shekhar Singh]

What are the other mejor upgrades over Su30mki to make it Super Sukhoi except AESA and Engine?
@randomradio
@vstol Jockey

 

[Sathya]

Courtesy PKS 's Trishul blog

TRISHUL: Super Su-30MKI Has Taken Shape


The Super Su-30MKI airframe will also be flight-certified for flying terrain-hugging flight profiles (about 100 metres ASL), thanks to the terrain avoidance mode of operation of the AESA-MMR. Existing Su-30MKIs are not able to fly ultra low-level flight profiles since the NO-11M PESA-MMR does not have the terrain avoidance operating mode.

The last paragraph which I've reproduced here is intriguing. Your views @randomradio ; @vstol Jockey

So much is getting changed in UPG + certification for 2 years in Russia.

New squads as CKDs as well

Scope of deal cost might in 2 digits of billion $ .

Just the timing , when people are dreaming about buying 1 or 2 squads of Su 35 .