Sukhoi Su-30MKI

[randomradio]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1468072078054100994

Feel like there's way too many Su-30s. But we are that desperate as well. Anyway, it will add 3 more squadrons, and will ensure we will still have 33 squadrons in 2025, after the Mig-21s leave service and LCAs start trickling in.

I had pointed out before that 2024 to 2028 will be our worst time. It's the time during which the Migs will have left service and LCAs will begin trickling in only after 2025, until they get to strength in 2028.

Post which we will have 37 squadrons, including a squadron each of Mk2 and MRFA plugging the gap of 2 squadrons the Jaguar will leave behind by 2030.

 

[_Anonymous_]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1468072078054100994

So PKS was right all along ( since 2011 ) & amateur experts here shilling MKI's would be capped at 275 wrong ( as usual) . Incidentally, He's predicted 350 - 375 nos.

Got to hand it to PKS. In some areas his knowledge of systems & the mysterious inner workings of the GoI is unmatched.

 

[jk007]

Feel like there's way too many Su-30s. But we are that desperate as well. Anyway, it will add 3 more squadrons, and will ensure we will still have 33 squadrons in 2025, after the Mig-21s leave service and LCAs start trickling in.

I had pointed out before that 2024 to 2028 will be our worst time. It's the time during which the Migs will have left service and LCAs will begin trickling in only after 2025, until they get to strength in 2028.

Post which we will have 37 squadrons, including a squadron each of Mk2 and MRFA plugging the gap of 2 squadrons the Jaguar will leave behind by 2030.

Maybe, MIGs will not be retired till 2028?

 

[Lolwa]

Feel like there's way too many Su-30s. But we are that desperate as well. Anyway, it will add 3 more squadrons, and will ensure we will still have 33 squadrons in 2025, after the Mig-21s leave service and LCAs start trickling in.

I had pointed out before that 2024 to 2028 will be our worst time. It's the time during which the Migs will have left service and LCAs will begin trickling in only after 2025, until they get to strength in 2028.

Post which we will have 37 squadrons, including a squadron each of Mk2 and MRFA plugging the gap of 2 squadrons the Jaguar will leave behind by 2030.

I feel there's a shortage instead. The Chinese have atleast 500-600 Flanker of varying capabilities. We need atleast 300-400 just for creating a credible defence case. I hope more composites and stealth features are included in the newer flanker variants.

 

[_Anonymous_]

I feel there's a shortage instead. The Chinese have atleast 500-600 Flanker of varying capabilities. We need atleast 300-400 just for creating a credible defence case. I hope more composites and stealth features are included in the newer flanker variants.

Frankly I was under the impression the deal for 21 MiG-29 + 12 Su-30 was to have been concluded on this visit of Putin. Then the deal on Igla MANPAD was also to have been signed. Wonder why they haven't been signed & where they've been stuck.

 

[Lolwa]

So PKS was right all along ( since 2011 ) & amateur experts here shilling MKI's would be capped at 275 wrong ( as usual) . Incidentally, He's predicted 350 - 375 nos.

Got to hand it to PKS. In some areas his knowledge of systems & the mysterious inner workings of the GoI is unmatched.

Sengupta's claims are correct most of the time. But most of these claims don't become true because of the absolute pathetic speed of the procurements and bureaucracy.

 

[randomradio]

Maybe, MIGs will not be retired till 2028?

Only 4 are left.

 

[randomradio]

I feel there's a shortage instead. The Chinese have atleast 500-600 Flanker of varying capabilities. We need atleast 300-400 just for creating a credible defence case. I hope more composites and stealth features are included in the newer flanker variants.

The Chinese may have more Flankers, but they also have 5 major fronts and 1 minor front to deal with. We only have 2.

Anyway, turns out this news of 50 more MKIs is just a Russian/HAL offer, it's not an Indian requirement. Meaning the IAF has not asked for more MKIs beyond the 12.

Sengupta's claims are correct most of the time. But most of these claims don't become true because of the absolute pathetic speed of the procurements and bureaucracy.

Nobody follows his "news" anymore. He passes off his own speculations as news. But he is the brochure king, no denying that.

 

[Hydra]

The Chinese may have more Flankers, but they also have 5 major fronts and 1 minor front to deal with. We only have 2.

Anyway, turns out this news of 50 more MKIs is just a Russian/HAL offer, it's not an Indian requirement. Meaning the IAF has not asked for more MKIs beyond the 12.



Nobody follows his "news" anymore. He passes off his own speculations as news. But he is the brochure king, no denying that.

During a possible indo china war they don't need to bother about rest 4 fronts.

 

[jetray]

The Chinese may have more Flankers, but they also have 5 major fronts and 1 minor front to deal with. We only have 2.

who in the world is going to attack chinese? At the most we can expect some naval tussle in SCS other than that most of their forces are nearly free to diverted wherever they want.

 

[randomradio]

During a possible indo china war they don't need to bother about rest 4 fronts.

In any war, they need to preserve forces on all their fronts, which is the point of theaterisation. Since they use regiments instead of squadrons, they need more jets to make a unit. Furthermore, half their Flankers are too old to fight a war. Only their latest J-16s and J-10Cs are suitable for use against India. And these advanced jets have been theaterised, so they are unlikely to leave the theaters they are assigned to. Assuming they have 250 each, that's 50 for each theater, we can assume we are dealing with 50 J-16s and J-10s each, and another 50 each can be assigned from the reserve command during war, so that's 100 each. So we could very well be up against 200 advanced and 200 outdated fighters in the 4th gen.

Their Flankers need to deal with the Tibet handicap as well. In fact you can say that neither the J-11 nor J-10 are the answers to deal with India. Both jets over Tibet are only half as capable as the MKI. So their higher numbers do not actually affect us. Only the J-20 will eventually have the thrust necessary to operate in Tibet. Otoh, of the planned 13 squadrons, we can immediately use 8 MKI squadrons against China, and bring 2 more in from Pune. The 12 new MKIs can also be used to set up a 14th squadron if necessary.

So we already have more than enough when it comes to dealing with their 4th gen threat. The real problem is the next gen threat and adding more MKIs won't help.

 

[randomradio]

 

[randomradio]

who in the world is going to attack chinese? At the most we can expect some naval tussle in SCS other than that most of their forces are nearly free to diverted wherever they want.

That's not how it works. Even if/though others may not attack, they will still test the resolve of the Chinese when there's a war. So the Japanese, Americans, Russians etc will fly almost like they are also at war with China and put pressure on them to react. This stresses out Chinese logistics and provides others with long term advantages, including training.

The Chinese build 250 jets in each batch, so they can distribute 50 jets to each of their 5 commands. So it's not really a lot for each command. And central command acts as reserve, so jets from there can be reallocated as per need.

It's always the case, things appear bigger than they really seem. When you break down a large force into smaller chunks, you will notice that all big militaries all over the world are actually working with shortages. The US forces are also too small for their needs. Take the navy for example, unlike India and China that are dealing with 2 and 3 seas respectively, the USN deals with multiple oceans in multiple continents across the world. So their real world capability in a specific part of the world actually becomes very small. Their impressive 100 destroyers becomes just 12 destroyers in the IOR, 18 in the Western Pacific, 12 in the Eastern Pacific and so on. So China deals with the same issue when it comes to their air force, India does not.

If they feel 50 is not enough in each batch against India, then they will have to increase the numbers in each batch for the WTC. Or just increase the size of the reserve command so the strength of the WTC can be increased as per demand. Regardless it means the resources of other commands are unlikely to be transferred to the WTC due to pressur efrom other countries.

The numbers are sufficient anyway. If we assume each batch forms three tiers of advancements, ie, advanced, current and outdated, then 50 from each tier will be 150 jets. So 50 J-11A, 50 J-11B and 50 J-16 will give the WTC 150 Flankers with three tiers of advancements. Adding 150 J-10s will give them 300 fighter jets against India in WTC, which can be doubled using the reserve command during wartime. We will have 100 MKIs and Rafales in the NE and 160 MKIs, Rafales and Mig-29s in the North. With another 40 MKIs available to bolster either side.

 

[Hydra]

In any war, they need to preserve forces on all their fronts, which is the point of theaterisation. Since they use regiments instead of squadrons, they need more jets to make a unit. Furthermore, half their Flankers are too old to fight a war. Only their latest J-16s and J-10Cs are suitable for use against India. And these advanced jets have been theaterised, so they are unlikely to leave the theaters they are assigned to. Assuming they have 250 each, that's 50 for each theater, we can assume we are dealing with 50 J-16s and J-10s each, and another 50 each can be assigned from the reserve command during war, so that's 100 each. So we could very well be up against 200 advanced and 200 outdated fighters in the 4th gen.

Their Flankers need to deal with the Tibet handicap as well. In fact you can say that neither the J-11 nor J-10 are the answers to deal with India. Both jets over Tibet are only half as capable as the MKI. So their higher numbers do not actually affect us. Only the J-20 will eventually have the thrust necessary to operate in Tibet. Otoh, of the planned 13 squadrons, we can immediately use 8 MKI squadrons against China, and bring 2 more in from Pune. The 12 new MKIs can also be used to set up a 14th squadron if necessary.

So we already have more than enough when it comes to dealing with their 4th gen threat. The real problem is the next gen threat and adding more MKIs won't help.

Who will attack china when they are fighting India,non of its adversaries baring US is capable to deal with china. And attacking Chinese when they are in war with somebody will definitely attract Chinese nuclear weapons. Theoretically a country needs to be alert in all fronts,that's not the case with china.

And regarding our assumption on lack of fighting capabilities of Chinese flankers, we assumed a lot about china in past, one such assumption is Chinese cannot hold ground in winter.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Since MMRCA 2.0 is not progressing
The Only 2 options are

1 More Sukhois
2 OR More Direct Import of Rafales

It appears that IAF will wait for Rafale 4 .1 , AND till then keep manufacturing More Su 30 MKI

@randomradio

Now the Question is What IF
SU 75 Turns out to be Better than
Rafale 4.1

We can make them at NASIK HAL

 

[jetray]

That's not how it works. Even if/though others may not attack, they will still test the resolve of the Chinese when there's a war. So the Japanese, Americans, Russians etc will fly almost like they are also at war with China and put pressure on them to react. This stresses out Chinese logistics and provides others with long term advantages, including training.

The Chinese build 250 jets in each batch, so they can distribute 50 jets to each of their 5 commands. So it's not really a lot for each command. And central command acts as reserve, so jets from there can be reallocated as per need.

It's always the case, things appear bigger than they really seem. When you break down a large force into smaller chunks, you will notice that all big militaries all over the world are actually working with shortages. The US forces are also too small for their needs. Take the navy for example, unlike India and China that are dealing with 2 and 3 seas respectively, the USN deals with multiple oceans in multiple continents across the world. So their real world capability in a specific part of the world actually becomes very small. Their impressive 100 destroyers becomes just 12 destroyers in the IOR, 18 in the Western Pacific, 12 in the Eastern Pacific and so on. So China deals with the same issue when it comes to their air force, India does not.

If they feel 50 is not enough in each batch against India, then they will have to increase the numbers in each batch for the WTC. Or just increase the size of the reserve command so the strength of the WTC can be increased as per demand. Regardless it means the resources of other commands are unlikely to be transferred to the WTC due to pressur efrom other countries.

The numbers are sufficient anyway. If we assume each batch forms three tiers of advancements, ie, advanced, current and outdated, then 50 from each tier will be 150 jets. So 50 J-11A, 50 J-11B and 50 J-16 will give the WTC 150 Flankers with three tiers of advancements. Adding 150 J-10s will give them 300 fighter jets against India in WTC, which can be doubled using the reserve command during wartime. We will have 100 MKIs and Rafales in the NE and 160 MKIs, Rafales and Mig-29s in the North. With another 40 MKIs available to bolster either side.

You are missing the wood for trees. Its not how many balls they have its just who has the balls to take on china.
Do you think russia or USA will even send one soldier across bcos there is no fighter planes for the moment? When china bullies other countries they dont send their entire army or navy just few soldiers or ships do the job. When no one is going to fight a real war with china all those numbers mean nothing.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

You are missing the wood for trees. Its not how many balls they have its just who has the balls to take on china.
Do you think russia or USA will even send one soldier across bcos there is no fighter planes for the moment? When china bullies other countries they dont send their entire army or navy just few soldiers or ships do the job. When no one is going to fight a real war with china all those numbers mean nothing.

I think we should Reframe our question , from Indian perspective

The Question is Whether US will intervene , IF , only India is attacked by China

For example US has promised help to Taiwan , Japan , Philippines and South Korea IF they are attacked by
CHINA

But if China only restricts its aggression against India , then what will these Countries do

 

[randomradio]

Since MMRCA 2.0 is not progressing
The Only 2 options are

1 More Sukhois
2 OR More Direct Import of Rafales

It appears that IAF will wait for Rafale 4 .1 , AND till then keep manufacturing More Su 30 MKI

MRFA will begin next year.

@randomradio

Now the Question is What IF
SU 75 Turns out to be Better than
Rafale 4.1

We can make them at NASIK HAL

Post 2030 option.

 

[randomradio]

You are missing the wood for trees. Its not how many balls they have its just who has the balls to take on china.
Do you think russia or USA will even send one soldier across bcos there is no fighter planes for the moment? When china bullies other countries they dont send their entire army or navy just few soldiers or ships do the job. When no one is going to fight a real war with china all those numbers mean nothing.

I don't get what's the point of others not attacking China in a war with India. Are you talking about them bringing all their jets into the fight?

That's not gonna happen, at least to the extent you are assuming. Simply because if 150-200 advanced jets defeat the IAF, then a whole lot of their scrub jets, drones and bombers will take to the air and pound Indian forces. If 150-200 advanced jets do not defeat the IAF, then they will simply retreat and focus only on air defence, where they will try and prevent IAF scrub forces from bombing them. There is no real need to add more jets from elsewhere in either case, since that's needed only in a long war, where attrition is very high. Basically, just a handful of expensive air superiority squadrons will determine in which direction the air war will go.

Also, a theater command is a simple numbers game. A terrain fits these many ground units. To defeat these many enemy ground units from the air, I need these many air units. And in order to ensure these many air units can attack with these many bombs with this much success rate, I need this level of air to air capability in these many numbers. And if I fail, I need these many units to prevent the enemy from doing this much damage to these many of my own ground units to hold this much of ground to consider it a victory.

This is pretty much how theater commands are set up. The commanders have already pre-decided what they need to win and how much they are willing to lose before calling it a day. But if the enemy is much more capable than planned, then adding more jets from other commands will simply mean more losses to your own side. So if your own command and resources from the reserve command are not enough, then you're gonna call it a day with a loss. It means you have severely underestimated the enemy. Although units can be reassigned to your own command, it's gonna happen in very specific cases, particularly when you are losing really badly and need more assistance, at least for the sake of buying time until you gain an advantage somewhere.

Theater commands are for rich countries. Which is why, while the Chinese have theater commands for all forces, we will have a single command for the air force, since our resources are not equal to requirements. But if the Chinese are forced to do this during a war, then it means things are going really badly for them.

 

[RISING SUN]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1467874612570558466

Related?

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