Map Of territories controlled in Southern Syria. Militants lost most of Dara in the last 1 week. Syrian Arab army started attack on ISIS controlled territory close to Israeli Administrated Golan Heights. Most of Syrian-jordanian Border is recaptured by Syrian Arab Army (SAA). If SAA clears southern Syria from militants, that will free Huge amount of Soldiers who were bogged down in south for the last 6 Years. A significant share of these soldiers will be redeployed to Northern Syria for the next Idlib offensive.
Syrian Civil War - News & Discussions
- Thread starter Atalay
- Start date
looks like Syrian civil war is nearing its end. Idlib is the last remaining stronghold of FSA FSA militants. Idlib Offensive is expected to start soon after the end of offensive in the south which is in its last phase.
Meanwhile Turkish president said that SAA attack on Idlib will result in the collapse of Astana accord.
July 14, 2018 / 11:56 PM / a day ago
Turkey's Erdogan says Syrian government forces targeting Idlib could destroy accord: source
Reuters Staff
2 Min Read
ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan told Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Saturday an accord aimed at containing the Syrian conflict could be destroyed if Syrian government forces target the Idlib region, a Turkish presidential source said.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan makes a speech at the old parliament building in Ankara, Turkey July 13, 2018. REUTERS/Umit Bektas
The two presidents spoke by telephone after the Syrian government raised the national flag on Thursday over areas of Deraa in the southwest that was in rebel hands for years. The source said Erdogan voiced concern about the treatment of civilians there.
Related Coverage
“President Erdogan stressed that the targeting of civilians in Deraa was worrying and said that if the Damascus regime targeted Idlib in the same way the essence of the Astana accord could be completely destroyed,” the source said.
With help from Russia and Iran, President Bashar al-Assad has now recovered most of Syria but anti-Assad rebels still control Idlib in the northwest, while a Kurdish-led militia controls the northeast and a large chunk of the east.
Turkey has set up a series of observation posts in Idlib as part of a deal which it reached last year with Russia and Iran in the Kazakh capital Astana to reduce fighting between insurgents and the Syrian government in de-escalation zones.
Erdogan said the avoidance of “negative developments” in Idlib was important in terms of encouraging rebel groups to attend a meeting in Astana planned for July 30-31, according to the source.
Separately, the Kremlin confirmed in a statement Putin’s phone conversation with Erdogan on Saturday and said they had discussed joint efforts to solve the Syrian crisis.
Syrian government forces targeting Idlib could destroy accord
Meanwhile Turkish president said that SAA attack on Idlib will result in the collapse of Astana accord.
July 14, 2018 / 11:56 PM / a day ago
Turkey's Erdogan says Syrian government forces targeting Idlib could destroy accord: source
Reuters Staff
2 Min Read
ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan told Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Saturday an accord aimed at containing the Syrian conflict could be destroyed if Syrian government forces target the Idlib region, a Turkish presidential source said.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan makes a speech at the old parliament building in Ankara, Turkey July 13, 2018. REUTERS/Umit Bektas
The two presidents spoke by telephone after the Syrian government raised the national flag on Thursday over areas of Deraa in the southwest that was in rebel hands for years. The source said Erdogan voiced concern about the treatment of civilians there.
Related Coverage
“President Erdogan stressed that the targeting of civilians in Deraa was worrying and said that if the Damascus regime targeted Idlib in the same way the essence of the Astana accord could be completely destroyed,” the source said.
With help from Russia and Iran, President Bashar al-Assad has now recovered most of Syria but anti-Assad rebels still control Idlib in the northwest, while a Kurdish-led militia controls the northeast and a large chunk of the east.
Turkey has set up a series of observation posts in Idlib as part of a deal which it reached last year with Russia and Iran in the Kazakh capital Astana to reduce fighting between insurgents and the Syrian government in de-escalation zones.
Erdogan said the avoidance of “negative developments” in Idlib was important in terms of encouraging rebel groups to attend a meeting in Astana planned for July 30-31, according to the source.
Separately, the Kremlin confirmed in a statement Putin’s phone conversation with Erdogan on Saturday and said they had discussed joint efforts to solve the Syrian crisis.
Syrian government forces targeting Idlib could destroy accord
Military operation in the south almost ended. 95 % of the territories in the south retaken by the SAA
Syrian Army Retakes Golan UN Post From Militants
Situations as of 23rd July 2018.
Blue - Israeli occupied Golan Heights.
Green- Remaining Militant occupied Territories.
Red -Syrian Arab Army.
Syrian Army Retakes Golan UN Post From Militants
Situations as of 23rd July 2018.
Blue - Israeli occupied Golan Heights.
Green- Remaining Militant occupied Territories.
Red -Syrian Arab Army.
Military situation as of 23rd July Syria. How SAA and YPG resolve their difference will determine the end of Syrian Civil War. All other Militant groups are almost finished. Operation in Idlib will probably start within weeks.
One year before on same day
One year before on same day
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Yeah. Militant Moral is all time low and now they are surrendering the moment they see the SAA. Lot of the militants in the south surrendered and joined SAA. Hardcore Islamists got the chance to go to Idlib and lot of cities and villages are retaken without and fight.
More importantly,SAA is no longer scattered all across different fronts anymore. SAA can now concentrate more men and equipments in one front.
January 2017 Map
July 23 2018
SAA is in non stop offensive for last 2 Years.
Gained Ground = SAA & YPG
Lost ground = ISIS , FSA & Al-nusra
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That is the main reason why US is holding AT-Tanf, they have US military deployed there (see above map). US is trying to block the Lebanon-Syria- Iraq-Iran Highway ( Damascus - Dumayr -AT-Tanf route, which is the shortest)
However, After SAA won the race to Al-Bukamal before YPG, Iran now have an alternative route(longer),Lebanon -> Damascus ->Palmyra -> Deir -Ezzor -> Al-Bukamal -> Iraq -> Iran
The US can't do anything in that regards, even if they hold territory in Syria. The Iranians are here to stay. Only Russia can boot them out, and even that will be difficult.
What I'm most interested in now is the dynamics between the Syrians, YPG/SDF and the Turks in the North. Things can spiral out of control there.
Political leadership will probably take a middle ground. They need US military help and Iranian support. However, on the ground , there is huge popular support/admiration/loyalty towards Iran. Iranian backed Popular Mobilization units are considered as national heroes by the Shia majority. Iraq is in Iranian sphere of Influence in the short term and medium term.
SDF is going to be the tough job. SAA will launch an attack towards Idlib from south-western border of militant controlled Idlib province. A large area of this side of pocket is mostly controlled by Al-nusra front militants and have very less Turkish and Turkish backed militant group presence. SAA will take Idlib city, push as many militants as possible to Afrin and Al-bab area and then probably try to make some sort of political deal with the remaining militants.
However, SDF is under the control of US and its allies with large amound of US military presence in the region. US will try to use it as a negotiating tool to reduce Iranian influence. It will be intresting to see how it play out.
I think the general population are slowly drifting away from Iran. Protests are a pretty good example.
There is an anti Iran sentiment in Iran from some fraction. But Iran have more support from Iraqis than they ever had. At the top of that Moqtada al-Sadr, who won most seats in Iraqi election is a shia cleric (even though he is not very font of Iran) who fought US during US occupation of Iraq. His militia killed hundreds of US troops during the war, and the guy was in US kill list for some time. Iraq is still a divided country, but the central government is now stronger than ever and Iranian Fraction is powerful and institutionalized.
What do you think will weaken pro Iranian fraction and cause rise in anti Iran feeling?
Basic economics. Iran is going broke. Saudis are flush.
Perks of USA sanctions I guess.
Saudi and Kuwait move to support Iraq amid protests over electricity crisis
SAA captured 6 settlements from ISIS near Golan Heights.
Meantime, Israel shot down Syrian Air force su-22 fighter with Patriot missile in the same region. Pilot confirmed dead.
Meantime, Israel shot down Syrian Air force su-22 fighter with Patriot missile in the same region. Pilot confirmed dead.
SAA advanced further against ISIS in the last anti goverment pocket of its kind in South Syria. According to SAA 600 ISIS members killed in last week. ISIS defenses are collapsing fast.
Alliances shift as Syrian Kurdish alliance holds talks with Assad regime
Text by FRANCE 24
Latest update : 2018-07-27
A US-backed Kurdish alliance is holding talks in Damascus with Syrian government representatives with an eye on Turkish ambitions in Syria.
The ancient adage, "The enemy of my enemy is my friend,” is once again being put into action on the ground in Syria, where a seven-year civil war has seen regional and global powers forced into sometimes unlikely agreements and accommodations.
This week, representatives of the US-backed, Kurdish-led SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) traveled from northern and northeastern Syria to the capital, Damascus, for the first time, for talks with officials from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government.
The SDF, an alliance of predominantly Kurdish fighters, as well as Arab militias, was formed in 2015 to defend Syria’s northeastern region from jihadist groups such as the Islamic State (IS) group and al Qaeda-affiliated militias.
Following hard-fought military campaigns in and around northern Syrian towns such as Kobane and Manbij, Syria’s Kurds were determined not to lose their gains to hardline Salafist groups such as the IS group. Their goals coincided with those of the US, France, Britain and other nations affected by the IS group threat.
But changing times require changing alliances – especially for the Kurds, the world’s largest ethnic group without a homeland. Spread across the border regions of Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran, the Kurds have historically been played by global powers, wooed when their fighting skills are needed only to be abandoned at payback time.
While SDF fighters captured the IS group’s de facto capital of Raqqa in October 2017 with support from the US-led coalition, Washington has since been inconsistent about its support for Syria’s Kurds.
Meanwhile a military intervention in Syria by Turkey -- which views the Kurdish gains across its southern border with deep unease -- led to the capture by Turkish forces of the Kurdish enclave of Afrin in northwestern Syria. Turkey, a NATO ally, has threatened to wrest Manbij -- a town around 25 kilometres east of Afrin -- from SDF control, and there has been periodic fighting between a militia linked to the SDF and Turkish-backed Syrian rebels.
The Turkish advances, along with conflicting US statements over its military plans in Syria, has left the Kurds within the SDF – which controls about 27 percent of Syrian territory -- extremely wary about their future in the autonomous areas.
"The Kurds today have an autonomous administration that they will probably not be able to maintain, but they can find some advantages to a compromise with the [Syrian] regime: the return of public services and state administrations that they never have had the means to finance," explained Thomas Pierret of CNRS (Centre National de la recherche scientifique) in an interview with FRANCE 24.
Cooperation on the ground
In the lead-up to the latest talks, Kurdish-led forces have been reaching agreements on the ground with Syrian army units, according to local media reports.
Last year, Kurdish forces surrendered a few villages between Manbij and al-Bab further west to Syrian army units to enable the SDF to concentrate on the battle for Raqqa. "The Raqqa battle was disturbed many times because of the Turkish-backed attacks on our areas, so we handed those areas [to a Syrian army unit] to carry on the offensive against Daesh [IS group],” a Syrian Kurdish official told Kurdistan 24.
The cooperation on the ground has been increasing in recent months. Earlier this month, an SDF official told the local Hawar news agency that there were talks between the local council of SDF-controlled Tabqa and local Syrian government officials to improve services and to restore the regime’s powers over the Tabqa dam, Syria’s largest dam.
Getting US troops out of Syria
At the start of the Syrian uprising in 2011, Assad attempted to woo Syria’s Kurds, a long marginalised group, against what he primarily viewed as a Sunni rebellion against his regime. With Turkey supporting the Syrian opposition, Assad initially attempted to win Kurdish loyalty by issuing a presidential decree granting Syrian citizenship to tens of thousands of them – something the Kurds had been seeking for more than half a century.
But while Assad was content to ignore the fighting in the Kurdish areas, concentrating instead on more strategic battles such as Aleppo, the recent gains by the SDF have been viewed with suspicion in Damascus. Backed by Russia and Iran, the Syrian leader today has succeeded in regaining control of huge swathes of the country and Assad can now concentrate on ensuring that the autonomous zones do not break away from Syria.
Assad views both US special forces and Turkish troops in the area as “occupying forces” and is eager to see them out of Syria.
There are currently around 2,000 US troops stationed in the Manbij area, and according to Aron Lund from the New York-based Century Foundation, "The priority for the Syrian regime is to get rid of US troops on its soil,” he noted in an interview with FRANCE 24, adding that, “Negotiations could speed up their departure."
A Kurdish lawmaker who sits in the national parliament in Damascus told the AFP Friday that the talks would focus on confining SDF ambitions to the cultural sphere with central government control restored in areas under its control.
Syria’s Kurds, like their counterparts in Turkey, have maintained that they do not seek independence from either Damascus or Ankara, but are demanding autonomy to control local administrative services and protect their cultural identity, including teaching the Kurdish language in schools.
The Kurds have been consistently left out of UN-led diplomatic talks in line with the wishes of NATO member Turkey, which views Syria's dominant Kurdish groups as an extension of the militant Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
Security issues to be ironed out
But the return of Syrian state control would still be a tough pill for the SDF to swallow. The Kurdish areas these days are being run by primarily leftist local councils that have equal representation of women. Kurdish flags, along with photographs of Abdullah Ocalan -- the Kurdish leader imprisoned on a Turkish island -- adorn public buildings and the sense of a Kurdish renaissance of sorts prevails across the autonomous zones.
There are also major security issues to be ironed out between the two sides, according to Pierret. "One of the important questions that will arise is the future of SDF combatants. Will these militiamen form a local police, in theory subordinate to Damascus, or will they go back to reintegrate the Syrian army? Many questions remain unresolved,” he noted.
Some initiatives have already been launched in recent months, including better cooperation in Qamishli, a border city once dubbed, “the secret capital of Syria’s Kurds”. Kurdish flags and posters of Ocalan have been removed from Qamishli streets in recent days and the Tabqa dam has been restarted by mutual agreement between the SDS and Damascus.
Any future compromise will depend on the flexibility of the Syrian regime as well as Assad’s international backers. "Russia would not be against a federal solution, while Iran is hostile to any form of autonomy for the Kurds," explained Pierret.
Turkey’s position will also be critical to any future solution. There are currently around 1,300 Turkish soldiers around Idlib and Turkey supports several thousand rebel militia fighters allied to various groups.
Any coordination between the SDF and the Assad regime on the ground would be a red line for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
But that is precisely what Assad would like to see. The Kurds have never been a priority for the Assads since the family seized control of Syria in 1970. But if the current Syrian leader manages to woo the Kurds on his side against his arch foe, Erdogan, it would mark a suitable alliance with an enemy of his enemy.
Link: Alliances shift as Syrian Kurdish alliance holds talks with Assad regime - France 24
Looks like SDF and Syarian government is going to forge an alliance in return for autonomy. Smart choice I would say, Kurds know that US is there for temporary political objectives and in long term, it is better to have close relation with Damascus government.
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