Ukraine - Russia Conflict

The way they are fighting today, yes. But if they bring to bear all their capabilities, then no. If you haven't noticed already, Ukraine is still functioning as a country even after 3 weeks of fighting. A real war would have seen the complete destruction of Ukraine's civilian infrastructure within the first 2-3 days.

The Russian objective from the very beginning has been to minimise casualties and get the OPFOR to surrender. Escalation will get them nothing but a perpetual enemy and a bad name amongst countries that matter to Russia, like India and China.

You can say that a war is being fought because Zelensky isn't a seasoned politician. If he was, he would have recognised the West's duplicity long ago. He wouldn't be stupidly asking for a no-fly zone or NATO involvement this deep into the war. But to more seasoned minds, he has been looking like a sociopathic fool since the beginning.
Who is stopping them to bring the full potential? No one. Literally no one. If they still not bringing means what?
FYI,We indians are not obliged to defend or support either Russia or Ukrain or even entire NATO in this war. Unlike war on terror, this war is not politically connected to us.
Let's be honest , Russian military doctrines, & their weapons aswell as home grown Ukranian weapons are becoming a joke day by day, just like how joe Biden today is. Its the US made weapons were making the difference in this war.

I am mote worried about the huge Russian inventory of weapons we have, till yesterday the Russian weapons were not battle proven, unfortunate for india now those Russian weapons were battle failed one.
 
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Russia has a war chest through years of surplus. Russia is not the UK, they actually have money to spend.



Depends on the objective.



A seasoned politician would have found other ways to deal with the threat. Russia never had any intentions of invading Ukraine. The political situation had changed a lot ever since Zelensky got misled to the point of no return. He was still expecting NATO tanks to come thundering up the steppe until a few days ago. What's happening in Ukraine is what typically happens when amateurs are given the hot seat during a crisis situation.

Zelensky should be judged a war criminal for holding civilians hostage and placing weapons in and around civilian areas, including hospitals and schools.



The Azov battalion exists, they are neo-Nazis. That the Russian majority regions have been disenfranchised and have been at war with Ukraine since the last 8 years is also a fact. NATO has more than enough firepower to invade Russia even today, let alone what can be done within a year. The Russian military is both numerically and technologically outmatched by NATO. You are trying to stroke a complex canvas with a very broad brush, which the British have been well known for doing throughout history.
The two are not comparable. The UK is a stable country that people will always lend to, Russia is not. Who will buy bonds in a currency that devalues quicker than their own? You can only encourage them to do so by raising interest rates, which kills your economy further.

Well it does, but you'll lose a lot of political capital if you begin flattening cities.

There was no way of dealing with the threat. Russia still believes that it owns countries other than its own. The only mistake Ukraine made was having enough oil and gas to replace Russia, that's why they're being invaded by Russia. Latvia is virtually as close to Moscow as Ukraine and already a member of NATO. If there was even the slightest chance of NATO invading Russia it would be kicking their ar5e in Ukraine right now, especially after Putin just handed them the perfect pretext for such an operation. The whole neutrality thing is a big bunch of bollox, Russia is just grabbing their oil and gas to maintain their market share, it has nothing to do with Nazis, tanks, ABMs or INF, that's just a cover for the theft. It's all economics.
 
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I think it's a wrong move by Lithuania but it serves to demonstrate just how strongly people feel about this.
Trouble is, we feel shit about Europe or Ukraine. Not in our favour to help them. These same bloody *censored*s voted against us in many forums. Serves them right.
 
I am mote worried about the huge Russian inventory of weapons we have, till yesterday the Russian weapons were not battle proven, unfortunate for india now those Russian weapons were battle failed one.
I always said, Russian weapons are not exactly top notch. Actually same goes for Chinese ones too -- which are nothing but cheap derivaties of Russian weapons. Chinese forces and their weapons are watered down Russian ones.
 
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What, besides the Ukrainian's unexpected reluctance to get folded back into the Russian world, is the Russian army's main problem in its Ukrainian campaign right now?

Logistics. Their logistics suck. The reasons are well known, with corruption and incompetence, but mostly it's due to a difficult terrain. Everyone by now has learned the lovely word "rasputitsa"... Note how, in the South, where the soil is firmer, they have been able to advance a lot more.
The reason is less of logistics. more of incompetence of a conscript army/forces. 20 year olds are leading the charge and their force leadership are beaurocratic that now generals have to step in between soldiers to actually get any movement. No wonder they are getting sniped.

Now picture in the result of applying "complete destruction of civilian infrastructure" as a solution when the problem is "terrible logistics".
Actually, its more of a Ukrainian decision. They want to turn all their cities into Stalingrads for Russia. Trouble for them though is Russia does not need to support their forces via air as Hitler had to.
However, MAD still works. America is not willing to fight Russia directly; just like Russia is not willing to fight America directly.
This is the biggest learning from this war that no one is talking about. This is the most obvious way to keep likes of China at bay. Develop best in the class nuclear delivery mechanism (think hypersonic glide weapons, MIRV, long range SLBMs) and bloody test the full range of H-Bombs. Then build nuclear weapons like sausages.
 
Trouble is, we feel shit about Europe or Ukraine. Not in our favour to help them. These same bloody *censored*s voted against us in many forums. Serves them right.
Many of those votes are historic. There's voting against someone on debatable issues too and then failing to recognise when a democracy has been invaded.
No luck needed. Ukraine has nothing to prevent high altitude bombing.
Errr.... if that were the case Russia would be flying planes over Ukrainian territory at altitude all the time and not flying even Su-57s at low altitude.
 
I always said, Russian weapons are not exactly top notch. Actually same goes for Chinese ones too -- which are nothing but cheap derivaties of Russian weapons. Chinese forces and their weapons are watered down Russian ones.
You meant to say we goanna fight intensely smelling shit with moderately smelling shit?
 
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Actually, its more of a Ukrainian decision. They want to turn all their cities into Stalingrads for Russia. Trouble for them though is Russia does not need to support their forces via air as Hitler had to.

This is the biggest learning from this war that no one is talking about. This is the most obvious way to keep likes of China at bay. Develop best in the class nuclear delivery mechanism (think hypersonic glide weapons, MIRV, long range SLBMs) and bloody test the full range of H-Bombs. Then build nuclear weapons like sausages.
Stalingrad was reduced to rubble but it didn't help, not one bit. Bombarding the hell out of a city before entry was pretty much standard operating procedure in WWII.

Good learning for Taiwan and ROK too. You can't stick to treaties when you are dealing with nutcases.
 
You meant to say we goanna fight intensely smelling shit with moderately smelling shit?
I think he is underestimating Chinese weapons massively. China, through copyright theft or otherwise, is well ahead of Russia in all things semiconductor technology- you can see that simply by looking at the commercial markets. Semiconductor technology is also probably the single biggest factor in weapons efficacy.
 
You meant to say we goanna fight intensely smelling shit with moderately smelling shit?
Worse, given the relationship between China and Russia, Russia will likely just hand them the defeat ECM if push came to shove.
 
Guerre en Ukraine : la France relève son niveau d'alerte nucléaire

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

War in Ukraine: France raises its nuclear alert level


The French Navy has deployed almost all of its nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SNLE). Each submarine can carry up to 16 M51 intercontinental missiles.

16 M51 intercontinental missiles per SSBN

It is unclear how long this has lasted, and how long it may last: the Strategic Oleagic Force (SOF) has not only deployed the usual nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) on patrol, but has far exceeded its nominal contract. This is according to the FOSt's nuclear contract with the head of the armed forces and President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron. Each submarine can carry up to 16 M51 intercontinental missiles produced by ArianeGroup, of which Airbus is a shareholder. Nevertheless, from the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the Breton daily "Le Télégramme de Brest" assured that France had even put a second SNLE on patrol. This is possible thanks to the SNLE cycle: one submarine is undergoing major maintenance for several months, one is returning from patrol, another is preparing to go on mission, and the fourth is in reserve.

Three submarines on patrol

By optimising this cycle, the Navy has managed to have not two but three submarines on patrol simultaneously, a feat made necessary by the situation in Ukraine and the aggressiveness of Russia. This decision taken by the President of the Republic, no doubt on the advice of the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, General Thierry Burkhard, is linked to the risk of nuclear or conventional fire on Ile Longue, which leaves very little notice. By taking out its "boomers", the Navy has protected them from such a problem. Once they are "disseminated" under the ocean, they are virtually undetectable, and thus contribute perfectly to deterrence.

Deterrent posture

One way to make them last is also, possibly, to continue in the exception, and to make a crew change (each SNLE, including the one undergoing a major refit, has two) outside of metropolitan territory. Many alternatives are possible, but would be unheard of. We have never heard of a relief outside Ile Longue, only of a patrol interrupted by a patient. No formalization of this unprecedented situation in the current 4 SNLE format has been made by the French authorities. France's deterrence posture is known: at least one SNLE at sea, and two Rafale squadrons of the 4th fighter wing, within the 1/4 Gascogne and 2/4 La Fayette fighter squadrons. These Rafales carry the MBDA ASMP-A.

ASMP-A missiles with Rafale

The French Naval Air Force (FANu) is also capable of deploying the ASMP-A with its Rafales, as Air&Cosmos recalled at the beginning of the crisis. Ear-marked pilots have this capability. On the other hand, because the Rafale Marine is necessarily single-seater and the base of departure is not on land, the governmental control (carried out by the nuclear weapons gendarmerie) and the implementation are different. The only limiting factor of the FOSt is in fact the number of batches of M51 missiles, and the number of missiles in working order, an exact number obviously classified. So far, the Navy has not given any definitive clue about its deployments at sea, but several clues, which it is not possible to detail here, have been planted. When asked at a meeting with AJD journalists on 8 March, Admiral Vandier remained cryptic, making it clear that there was no communication about nuclear deployments. This was in line with the United States and Great Britain, which had decided, along with France, not to detail their plans.
 
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See, that's the thing.

What, besides the Ukrainian's unexpected reluctance to get folded back into the Russian world, is the Russian army's main problem in its Ukrainian campaign right now?

Logistics. Their logistics suck. The reasons are well known, with corruption and incompetence, but mostly it's due to a difficult terrain. Everyone by now has learned the lovely word "rasputitsa"... Note how, in the South, where the soil is firmer, they have been able to advance a lot more.

I think the Ukrainian forces are in greater numbers in the north around the capital than the south though. Forces from the west have also moved towards Kiev.

Agreed about the logistics. Logistics and the fact that their stuff is really, really old and breaks down more frequently, while also exacerbating the need for more logistics to maintain their super geezer equipment.

Now picture in the result of applying "complete destruction of civilian infrastructure" as a solution when the problem is "terrible logistics".

Air and CM attacks against factories, power plants etc. None of this should slow down an invasion, but would definitely push the Ukrainians into the stone age, with the Russians earning their eternal hatred. I doubt the Russians want Pakistan as a neighbour.

But there's another thing. This was supposed to be a quick war of conquest. Come in, kill the leadership, gobble up all of Eastern and Southern Ukraine so as to link with Transnistria (and perhaps gobble up Moldavia too, if things have gone well so far, why stop?), and leave behind at most a rump state centered around Lviv where you can expel all the malcontents. If you destroy stuff that you conquer, then you have to rebuild it. That shit's expensive, and you've got no money -- Putin knew that the economic war and sanctions would intensify after he made his move, so his plan also required to limit the damage so as to limit the reparation bill.

How much damage would the French Army do to Paris had the Germans held millions of Parisians hostage during WW2?

War crimes make it easy to fight wars.

Destroying Ukraine fully would also mean that either he gets an unproductive drain on his resources until he can get it rebuilt; or he has to forget about annexing the best parts because there are no best parts anymore; he can abandon the mess he has created but that will not let him achieve the goals he had set for himself. It's at best damage control (as in, control through damage), but not actual control.

He doesn't have to destroy the parts he wants to control. Like Kiev can be destroyed. Lyiv too. But not Kharkiv or Odessa.

The Russian-heavy parts can be left untouched. But that's where the UAF are holding civilians hostage, making it practically impossible for the Russians to move in without mass civilian casualties.

Zelensky is trying to escalate the conflict because getting NATO in the fray seems like the best way to get Russia to back down. However, MAD still works. America is not willing to fight Russia directly; just like Russia is not willing to fight America directly. The key to great power warfare is to go through proxies, it's how it's been fought in Korea and Vietnam (with the USSR and China providing not-that-discreet support to the proxy that was fighting America) and how it's been fought in Afghanistan (with America providing not-that-discreet support to the proxy that was fighting the USSR).

Exactly. It's just that Zelensky didn't know Ukraine was gonna be a proxy. He incorrectly assumed being European gave him certain rights. And his speeches were absolutely cringe-worthy. "Am I standing alone?" "Where is NATO?" "No-fly zone?"

Would he have made the decision to fight if he knew the reality of what was to come?

This is a song and dance we've had before. People who advocate for Zelensky to back down and surrender would have asked the same of Ho Chi Minh and Kim Il-Sung and Ahmad Shah Massoud...

None of them were democracies. And Ho Chi Minh and Kim Il-Sung actually received help directly. They weren't standing around making cringy speeches while their countries were being destroyed.

Regardless better examples would be Hitler retreating his forces into Berlin and Hirohito surrendering before the US and SU invaded the main islands of Japan. Both decided it was unnecessary to risk their entire countries and peoples in a foolish engagement. Unlike Zelensky, they were thinking about the future of their countries after they were gone.

It certainly sucks when you get to be the proxy. Why do you think France wanted to have its own independent nuclear deterrence?

Look, I will ask the same thing again. Would Zelensky had chosen to fight had he known he was gonna be alone?

What's the future of Ukraine now? Become Russia's psuedo-satellite state? Zelensky now knows he has been betrayed by the West. He also now knows that the security of Ukraine now depends more on Russian benevolence than NATO's moral support. And there's no way of knowing when he will get kicked out himself.

Speaking of proxies, so how soon do you think it's gonna take for French troops to be fighting Russian separatists in the Baltic states? With all the cool new weapons the Ukranians have received from NATO?
 
Who is stopping them to bring the full potential? No one. Literally no one. If they still not bringing means what?
FYI,We indians are not obliged to defend or support either Russia or Ukrain or even entire NATO in this war. Unlike war on terror, this war is not politically connected to us.
Let's be honest , Russian military doctrines, & their weapons aswell as home grown Ukranian weapons are becoming a joke day by day, just like how joe Biden today is. Its the US made weapons were making the difference in this war.

I am mote worried about the huge Russian inventory of weapons we have, till yesterday the Russian weapons were not battle proven, unfortunate for india now those Russian weapons were battle failed one.

Nothing to do with the weapons themselves. The Russians don't want to kill civilians, but the UAF is hiding behind them. The Russians can't use their heavy weapons because of that. Did you already forget how the Ukrainians were holding Indians hostage in Sumy?

There's nothing wrong with Russian or Ukranian weapons. We use it differently, we train differently, we have different logistics, we have different organisation etc. Plus we have career soldiers, not consrcipts and contracted soldiers, so our manpower is simply better. Plus we have regular corps level exercises involving 30-40000 troops at any one time.




One of the main reasons why we always have ammo problems is because we exercise a lot. Most countries don't train like we do.
 
The two are not comparable. The UK is a stable country that people will always lend to, Russia is not. Who will buy bonds in a currency that devalues quicker than their own? You can only encourage them to do so by raising interest rates, which kills your economy further.

They don't have much debt. The Russia govt's total foreign debt is merely $60B.

Well it does, but you'll lose a lot of political capital if you begin flattening cities.

Of course. Something Russia wants to avoid. Which is why they are only sieging most of the cities.

There was no way of dealing with the threat. Russia still believes that it owns countries other than its own. The only mistake Ukraine made was having enough oil and gas to replace Russia, that's why they're being invaded by Russia. Latvia is virtually as close to Moscow as Ukraine and already a member of NATO. If there was even the slightest chance of NATO invading Russia it would be kicking their ar5e in Ukraine right now, especially after Putin just handed them the perfect pretext for such an operation. The whole neutrality thing is a big bunch of bollox, Russia is just grabbing their oil and gas to maintain their market share, it has nothing to do with Nazis, tanks, ABMs or INF, that's just a cover for the theft. It's all economics.

Lol, those oil reserves require tons of investments and are not necessarily cheap. Even India has massive shale oil reserves, enough to make India an exporter, but it's very expensive to get it out. If those reserves were accessible, Ukrainians would be drilling them all out by now.
 
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