Et si un échec de Vladimir Poutine en Ukraine pouvait être pire qu'une victoire ?
What if a failure by Vladimir Putin in Ukraine could be worse than a victory?
In France, the army is also worried that a failure by Vladimir Putin would make him even more unpredictable and therefore dangerous. The Russian president might have to use "other means", including the use of illegal weapons.
Whether Vladimir Putin wins "his" war in Ukraine or gets bogged down in it, or even loses it, the Western world may remain at the mercy of the Russian president's unpredictability and dangerousness for a long time to come. In France, the army is also worried about the second option. In particular, it fears that a "risk of humiliation" of Vladimir Putin will make him even more unpredictable and dangerous. And it anticipates this factor in its defensive posture strategy. "How will he react? Will he go as far as a vertical escalation (to a nuclear conflict, editor's note)? We don't rule it out," explains a general officer. "In any case, we must not exclude any possibility," confirmed the Elysée.
"The main concern is that failure is probably dangerous for Vladimir Putin. But his failure would also be dangerous for everyone. That's what's freaking everyone out," said another general officer.
In a letter addressed to the general officers, the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces says no different. General Thierry Burkhard believes that Vladimir Putin is "in a strategic situation that he had probably not anticipated. While the special operation was supposed to show Russia's strength, the opposite is happening. This makes Vladimir Putin all the more unpredictable.
Unpredictable but how?
Vladimir Putin "did what he had always said he would do, but it was misunderstood," said one of the general officers interviewed by La Tribune. "He has already shown how dangerous his decisions can be", according to the Elysée Palace. What will Vladimir Putin do to get what he has always wanted? "The main risk, which makes everyone think, is that Vladimir Putin, condemned to succeed and unable to back down, will use other means if he does not succeed with the means already implemented", underlines one of the general officers.
"In the worst case, there is certainly the use of illicit weapons. There are certainly other scenarios that can be both the destruction of cities and even greater violence against civilians. And the worst case scenario cannot be described," the Elysée said.
What other means? From hybrid warfare (submarine cables, cyber, space...) to nuclear warfare via the use of chemical weapons, Vladimir Putin's possibilities are numerous and hardly encouraging. "We must take all our measures, both defensively and offensively - the sanctions, in other words - to prevent these risks," the Elysée Palace said. The final word goes to General Burkhard: "In this extremely dangerous period, marked by great tension, we must show increased vigilance in order to face any new threat. Anything can happen and we have to be ready for it.
Michel Cabirol