Ukraine - Russia Conflict

The sht show for Russia has barely started. It looks like they are stupidly going to make a move on Odessa which is a fortress right now not to mention the hundreds of miles of tunnels underneath.

I can see the excuses by the boobs in here saying they were going soft on Odessa for civilians sake.

Russia thought they could walk into hell and defeat it now they want mediator to get them out without looking like they got their a$$es handed to them.
If it's Russian defeat you want, what better way than for Odessa to be their Stalingrad. In fact if I were in your place I'd welcome Russian intervention there. But you seem more apprehensive than confident, for some reason going by the way you've constructed your argument.

Besides how do you know whether Russian offer for a breakthrough in peace talks is not part of their maskirovka. Look it up.
 
They kept getting attacked when they tried fleeing. There are videos of fleeing civilians being hit by artillery.

Is that why Russia offered exit corridors into Russia and Belarus?

Common sense would tell you the Russians want as little civilian deaths as possible. If their goal was to kill civilians, they would have done it from Day 2.

Yeah, sure.


That's quite a back down in the last 24 hours.

Er... That's normal. We call that negotiations. There is a certain amount of give and take.

Not as many fighters would be willing to repel the Russians if what you have been told is true by RT was actually true.

The numbers are small anyway. In a country of 40 million, we should have seen a million Ukranians armed and ready to fight. The numbers are far lesser than that.

Which would not be achieved by the areas you show. And they are too narrow to have any value as regards missile defence concerns. Nor will it shield border Russians from how well the rest of Ukraine is doing in the EU.

The idea is to prevent a NATO invasion through Ukraine's tankable grasslands, but would require declaring war on the buffer state and becoming an aggressor.

The question is how many troops and much equipment and cash they are going to lose if they don't get their stupid a55es out of there.

Enough to prevent a world war. At least until the point Russia is ready to fight one, which could be as little as just 10 years away. The buffer zone can prevent that. Or at least give enough time for saner heads to prevail. I don't want to see the Europeans being sold a narrative that the Russians are rather weak and will not pose a long term conventional threat. This will affect Europe's militarisation plans.

In any case, the Ukrainians are losing more troops and materials as the fighting progresses. There will be a tipping point. Plus the Russians can't retreat due to the sunk costs of the invasion. The minute Zelensky decided to reject the first call for surrender and fighting moved on to the next phase, it became do or die for Russia. Furthermore, the Russians are mainly losing equipment that's pretty much Cold War relics, so will easily be replaced during the replacement cycle that began last year. As for cash, the West is financing the war with oil and gas money. Their main loss is trained men, but they are using artillery and tanks to do most of the fighting.

People also have this misguided notion that a nuclear war cannot be won. It gets simpler to understand Russia's actions when you consider that losing Ukraine to NATO would make it a massive existential threat to Russia. Enough to the point that Russia will have already lost even before a war begins.
 
Is that why Russia offered exit corridors into Russia and Belarus?
Yeah, because people would actually want to flee to either of those two shitholes.

Common sense would tell you the Russians want as little civilian deaths as possible. If their goal was to kill civilians, they would have done it from Day 2.
Commonsense would tell you the Russians don't want to invade Ukraine. And yet, here we are.


Er... That's normal. We call that negotiations. There is a certain amount of give and take.
There was no give from the Russians a week ago.


The numbers are small anyway. In a country of 40 million, we should have seen a million Ukranians armed and ready to fight. The numbers are far lesser than that.
Are they? Don't forget some need to act in support roles too.


The idea is to prevent a NATO invasion through Ukraine's tankable grasslands, but would require declaring war on the buffer state and becoming an aggressor.
You'd have to be insane to think NATO is going to invade Russia with tanks. There's no reason to, nor are they that stupid. Can you imagine them trying to pass that through parliament or congress? Especially when Russia has like 2,000 nukes in operational service. The latter being the only reason Russia isn't currently getting its *censored* force-fed to it by NATO right now, remember? The only thing NATO had to do to defeat the USSR was simply be there offering a better way of life. The same is true now.

Enough to prevent a world war. At least until the point Russia is ready to fight one, which could be as little as just 10 years away. The buffer zone can prevent that. Or at least give enough time for saner heads to prevail. I don't want to see the Europeans being sold a narrative that the Russians are rather weak and will not pose a long term conventional threat. This will affect Europe's militarisation plans.

In any case, the Ukrainians are losing more troops and materials as the fighting progresses. There will be a tipping point. Plus the Russians can't retreat due to the sunk costs of the invasion. The minute Zelensky decided to reject the first call for surrender and fighting moved on to the next phase, it became do or die for Russia. Furthermore, the Russians are mainly losing equipment that's pretty much Cold War relics, so will easily be replaced during the replacement cycle that began last year. As for cash, the West is financing the war with oil and gas money. Their main loss is trained men, but they are using artillery and tanks to do most of the fighting.

People also have this misguided notion that a nuclear war cannot be won. It gets simpler to understand Russia's actions when you consider that losing Ukraine to NATO would make it a massive existential threat to Russia. Enough to the point that Russia will have already lost even before a war begins.
You can't prepare for a world war whilst bogged down in another war. That's not even up to _Anonymous_-level dumb.

The Russians have done a very good job of making themselves look weaker than anyone thought conventionally. They have dumbfounded NATO experts by taking longer than 96 hours even. That said, spending will increase throughout NATO as a result of Putin's Special Military Clusterfuck, because European leaders no longer believe him to be sane.

The West isn't losing any people in Ukraine bar the odd spec ops maybe. The artillery is all Ukrainian, only some ATGMs and MANPADS have been provided so far, but that is changing. The more money Russia spends replacing assets, the less it spends modernising its military, or economy.

A nuclear war can't be won. Russia can place its missiles in places that wouldn't even be affect by any ABM systems like those placed in Poland, even if they were placed in Ukraine. But the more unpredictable Russia becomes, the more likely the US is start work on a full capability shield like brilliant pebbles. We've seen that Russia is prepared to invade Ukraine and then use nuclear threats and in 20 years Kim Jong Fat-Lad or Xi JinPoohBear might decide the same wrt ROK and Taiwan.
 
Yeah, because people would actually want to flee to either of those two shitholes.


Commonsense would tell you the Russians don't want to invade Ukraine. And yet, here we are.



There was no give from the Russians a week ago.



Are they? Don't forget some need to act in support roles too.



You'd have to be insane to think NATO is going to invade Russia with tanks. There's no reason to, nor are they that stupid. Can you imagine them trying to pass that through parliament or congress? Especially when Russia has like 2,000 nukes in operational service. The latter being the only reason Russia isn't currently getting its *censored* force-fed to it by NATO right now, remember? The only thing NATO had to do to defeat the USSR was simply be there offering a better way of life. The same is true now.


You can't prepare for a world war whilst bogged down in another war. That's not even up to _Anonymous_-level dumb.

The Russians have done a very good job of making themselves look weaker than anyone thought conventionally. They have dumbfounded NATO experts by taking longer than 96 hours even. That said, spending will increase throughout NATO as a result of Putin's Special Military Clusterfuck, because European leaders no longer believe him to be sane.

The West isn't losing any people in Ukraine bar the odd spec ops maybe. The artillery is all Ukrainian, only some ATGMs and MANPADS have been provided so far, but that is changing. The more money Russia spends replacing assets, the less it spends modernising its military, or economy.

A nuclear war can't be won. Russia can place its missiles in places that wouldn't even be affect by any ABM systems like those placed in Poland, even if they were placed in Ukraine. But the more unpredictable Russia becomes, the more likely the US is start work on a full capability shield like brilliant pebbles. We've seen that Russia is prepared to invade Ukraine and then use nuclear threats and in 20 years Kim Jong Fat-Lad or Xi JinPoohBear might decide the same wrt ROK and Taiwan.
Lol. Suddenly US strutting around dictating terms to literally everyone isn't a reality anymore. Suddenly you have KSA & UAE ignore telephone calls from POTUS .

Suddenly you have US parleying with Maduro's team while not recognizing his Presidency but that of his rival's which must make all of Venezuelans wonder what the hells going on? In spite of such a climb down by the US & in spite of the precarious finances of Venezuela , Maduro isn't budging.

Suddenly you may also see Iran acting difficult & fat Kim rubbing his hands with glee. Then you have China which is an altogether different story. This is the loss of face US had to endure. This isn't a place they like being in but they pushed Putin so hard he didn't have a choice.

Now he's going down but he's taking you along. It's the same Hitler vs the rest story. By the end of 1945 , the super powers of the day were more relieved than happy this ended & to come out alive. By the end of 1945 , the world saw a change in it's order with new super powers replacing the older ones. Since then UK has slipped from being a 2nd rate to a 3rd rate power

As usual you can't see the wood for the trees.
This is junior college level analysis for any student of diplomacy. Yet you couldn't even analyse this properly. You're a hopeless case Paddy.

I wonder why didn't your folks consider infanticide given abortion was banned in the RoI then, alsogiven ancient Irish practised infanticide. Would have saved them the grief & us irreparable brain & eye damage.
 
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Yeah, because people would actually want to flee to either of those two shitholes.

It's not a choice.

There was no give from the Russians a week ago.

That's how negotiations work. In 1971, this tactic worked in India's favour.

Are they? Don't forget some need to act in support roles too.

UAF are mainly infantry hiding in buildings, not on the field in armoured vehicles. Most of those are along Donbas.

You'd have to be insane to think NATO is going to invade Russia with tanks. There's no reason to, nor are they that stupid. Can you imagine them trying to pass that through parliament or congress? Especially when Russia has like 2,000 nukes in operational service. The latter being the only reason Russia isn't currently getting its *censored* force-fed to it by NATO right now, remember? The only thing NATO had to do to defeat the USSR was simply be there offering a better way of life. The same is true now.

You may find it unrealistic, but neither NATO nor Russia agree with you.

You can't prepare for a world war whilst bogged down in another war. That's not even up to _Anonymous_-level dumb.

Lol. An insurgency is not a war.

The Russians have done a very good job of making themselves look weaker than anyone thought conventionally. They have dumbfounded NATO experts by taking longer than 96 hours even. That said, spending will increase throughout NATO as a result of Putin's Special Military Clusterfuck, because European leaders no longer believe him to be sane.

Explain Iraq War then.

Why US + allies used a million troops and still need 5 weeks to conquer a dilapidated Iraq, but a numerically inferior RA has to take on the second largest European country with sufficiently advanced technology and do it in just 4 days while holding back significantly?

The West isn't losing any people in Ukraine bar the odd spec ops maybe. The artillery is all Ukrainian, only some ATGMs and MANPADS have been provided so far, but that is changing. The more money Russia spends replacing assets, the less it spends modernising its military, or economy.

Replacing assets is modernising. It's like our Mig-21 loss. The only tanks the Russians have built after 1991 were a few hundred T-90s, which are now 20 years old and undergoing MLUs. Pretty much everything the Russians have lost on the ground in Ukraine were made in the 80s. We are talking about some really ancient stuff. Most of them are 50 years old already, a critical reason why their logistics sucked so bad.

The more oil and gas people in the West buy at currently inflated prices, the more money the Russians get, the more money they put into modernisation and economy. With the ruble halved, their exports become even more profitable. Plus they are gonna ignore American and European IPR from here on, so the populace will be able to improve their lifestyle on their own.

A nuclear war can't be won. Russia can place its missiles in places that wouldn't even be affect by any ABM systems like those placed in Poland, even if they were placed in Ukraine. But the more unpredictable Russia becomes, the more likely the US is start work on a full capability shield like brilliant pebbles. We've seen that Russia is prepared to invade Ukraine and then use nuclear threats and in 20 years Kim Jong Fat-Lad or Xi JinPoohBear might decide the same wrt ROK and Taiwan.

If a nuclear war cannot be won, then nobody would be investing in BMD. You gotta live up to the potential of your name.
 
It's not a choice.
Yeah, it isn't an option, so why would they? People don't run towards nations like Russia and Belarus, they run away from them.


That's how negotiations work. In 1971, this tactic worked in India's favour.
But in the 1930s it did not. JFC, stop with garbage history references that have no relevance to the present. Russia is realising that this is not a cake walk. They have already lost more than twice as many troops as NATO lost in Afghanistan and Iraq combined over 20 years, and the lines have barely moved since 2 weeks ago and recently they lost some ground. And we are pre-insurgency at this point. In fact Putin can't even begin to dream about the insurgency phase of this war yet, even though it in itself will be a nightmare.


UAF are mainly infantry hiding in buildings, not on the field in armoured vehicles. Most of those are along Donbas.
And the Russian AF is mainly hiding in its hangars. This Su-57 was spotted at low altitude because clearly its stealth capability is non-existent.



You may find it unrealistic, but neither NATO nor Russia agree with you.
What? You think NATO leaders like the US, UK, France and Germany are going to stand up in parliament an announce a bill to invade Russia with tanks via Ukraine, if Russia hadn't invaded Ukraine.? Please answer this because I need to understand the stupidity of the person I'm conversing with. @Picdelamirand-oil, @Bon Plan

Lol. An insurgency is not a war.
Pffft. And this is just an insurgency? Wiki disagrees.


Explain Iraq War then.

Why US + allies used a million troops and still need 5 weeks to conquer a dilapidated Iraq, but a numerically inferior RA has to take on the second largest European country with sufficiently advanced technology and do it in just 4 days while holding back significantly?
It took 26 days of major combat operations and Baghdad was captured in 19 days of ground war with very few casualties. The air war lasted 1 day with no losses. You might also notice that they had to invade from the south and Baghdad is a lot further from the south border than Kyiv is from the north border. There were no periods of stagnation in the advance. Russia could advance on several fronts and has not achieved air superiority yet even, it has also largely stagnated. And Russia is fighting on its doorstep, NATO was not. Desert Storm was against the 4th largest military in the world, it took 6 weeks, the ground war took just 100 hours.


Replacing assets is modernising. It's like our Mig-21 loss. The only tanks the Russians have built after 1991 were a few hundred T-90s, which are now 20 years old and undergoing MLUs. Pretty much everything the Russians have lost on the ground in Ukraine were made in the 80s. We are talking about some really ancient stuff. Most of them are 50 years old already, a critical reason why their logistics sucked so bad.
Doesn't work like that, you can't train people for new equipment whilst they're busy dying. Iraq and Afghanistan slowed major military programs significantly and they were more like a safari compared to Ukraine wrt losses.

The more oil and gas people in the West buy at currently inflated prices, the more money the Russians get, the more money they put into modernisation and economy. With the ruble halved, their exports become even more profitable. Plus they are gonna ignore American and European IPR from here on, so the populace will be able to improve their lifestyle on their own.



If a nuclear war cannot be won, then nobody would be investing in BMD. You gotta live up to the potential of your name.
We're not buying their oil and gas though. US and UK have stopped and the EU is cutting back. Russian oil will be toilet cheap and oil is now stabilising at $94/bbl in general, which is well down on historic highs.

With the Ruble halved Putin will struggle to buy imports.


But his move with China to sell foreign reserves has propped up the Ruble a little for now.

The current BMD is aimed at rogue actors like Iran and DPRK, it is incapable of stopping 2000 warheads, even if it had a 100% Pk.
 

And so far, the Biden administration has won praise for its handling of the crisis in Ukraine. Starting in December, the president and his team shared U.S. intelligence with the world that accurately predicted Putin’s actions, including attempts by Moscow to create a false pretext for war.
 
Sounds great . He ought to receive a Nobel just as Obummer got one for replacing Bush, all the more so since the rout & disgraceful retreat has been forgotten & buried under the Ukrainian war.

I hope you realize what this means Paddy. The US is prepared for another expedition in any part of the world that doesn't involve Russia & China.
 
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Yeah, it isn't an option, so why would they? People don't run towards nations like Russia and Belarus, they run away from them.

People run away from war. That's their only choice. Later they come back.

But in the 1930s it did not. JFC, stop with garbage history references that have no relevance to the present. Russia is realising that this is not a cake walk. They have already lost more than twice as many troops as NATO lost in Afghanistan and Iraq combined over 20 years, and the lines have barely moved since 2 weeks ago and recently they lost some ground. And we are pre-insurgency at this point. In fact Putin can't even begin to dream about the insurgency phase of this war yet, even though it in itself will be a nightmare.

Same rules.

And the Russian AF is mainly hiding in its hangars. This Su-57 was spotted at low altitude because clearly its stealth capability is non-existent.


They have like 1 jet.

What? You think NATO leaders like the US, UK, France and Germany are going to stand up in parliament an announce a bill to invade Russia with tanks via Ukraine, if Russia hadn't invaded Ukraine.? Please answer this because I need to understand the stupidity of the person I'm conversing with. @Picdelamirand-oil, @Bon Plan

Er... Yes. That's the point. The West has invaded more countries than anybody else in the last many decades.

Pffft. And this is just an insurgency? Wiki disagrees.


Silly boy, we are talking about a long term insurgency after the war is done with and Russia is occupying Ukraine.

It took 26 days of major combat operations and Baghdad was captured in 19 days of ground war with very few casualties. The air war lasted 1 day with no losses. You might also notice that they had to invade from the south and Baghdad is a lot further from the south border than Kyiv is from the north border. There were no periods of stagnation in the advance. Russia could advance on several fronts and has not achieved air superiority yet even, it has also largely stagnated. And Russia is fighting on its doorstep, NATO was not. Desert Storm was against the 4th largest military in the world, it took 6 weeks, the ground war took just 100 hours.

You must be very good at math. 19 March to 30 April is 26 days?

Doesn't work like that, you can't train people for new equipment whilst they're busy dying. Iraq and Afghanistan slowed major military programs significantly and they were more like a safari compared to Ukraine wrt losses.

Lol, but in just the previous page you said the West will be giving Ukraine Abrams, Challengers, ATACMS, Patriots and whatnot.

We're not buying their oil and gas though.

Oh, wow. Are you referring to yourself in the royal third person? Or are we talking about "the West"?


Russian oil will be toilet cheap and oil is now stabilising at $94/bbl in general, which is well down on historic highs.

Yes, toilet cheap for India and China. You guys pay the full price.

With the Ruble halved Putin will struggle to buy imports.

He may not need to. Industrialised economies import when domestic products are more expensive than imports.

The more the ruble falls, the faster the Russians industrialise. And they will steal tech to indigenise, while improvising on what they cannot steal.

Companies looking for low cost destinations will set up factories in Russia to manufacture and sell to the world. So we could see Russia becoming a major supplier of renewable energy technologies for example.

The current BMD is aimed at rogue actors like Iran and DPRK, it is incapable of stopping 2000 warheads, even if it had a 100% Pk.

The current BMD, like GMD, is aimed at Russia. And Russia is also working on such BMD capabilities, aimed at the US.

The first step is to get it right, hence the small numbers. The next step is to increase interception per missile and mass produce to lower costs.

The GBI has a diameter of 1.28m. The SM-3 has a diameter of 0.34m. In theory, you can stick 14 SM-3 interceptors inside 1 GBI. With a slightly bigger missile, you can stick even more in. A 2m dia missile can carry 34 of them. Assuming 3 interceptors per warhead, a single missile can stop 11. Let's assume 10. If we assume Russia has 2000 warheads in ICBMs, you will need 200 missiles to intercept them. Easy peasy. With better technologies, the quality of interceptors can be increased.
 
The sht show for Russia has barely started. It looks like they are stupidly going to make a move on Odessa which is a fortress right now not to mention the hundreds of miles of tunnels underneath.

I can see the excuses by the boobs in here saying they were going soft on Odessa for civilians sake.

Russia thought they could walk into hell and defeat it now they want mediator to get them out without looking like they got their a$$es handed to them.
If Russia goes HARD, there will be no Ukraine left. A little bit of FOAB will end all conflicts. You have not seen any of the recent Russian weapons deployed in this conflict.
 
Commonsense would tell you the Russians don't want to invade Ukraine. And yet, here we are.
If NATO had followed common sense, they would not have cornered Russia un-necessarily. Heck Putin wanted Russia to join EU for the first decade of this century. China and Asia was not exactly his first choice. If anyone is to be blamed for this invasion, its NATO.
 
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If President is 79 & Speaker of the House is 81 , This is what you get. Can't tell if the silly old cow was drunk or suffering from dementia or both. What do you think sweetie?

After all you clowns elected these geriatrics just coz you guys wanted to legalize 72 genders ,the right to wear g strings on your hairy a rses under your skirts & take it up yours with marriage divorce adoption & inheritance along with alimony or palimony rights or whatever you God damn call it & these geriatrics who couldn't remember what they did 2 minutes ago said yes . @WHOHE