Ukraine - Russia Conflict

[jetray]

Twitter discussions show that Russia has now started winning in
Several Eastern Ukrainian cities

Right now Ukraine is under tremendous pressure

130 days of war is over

But It looks like that in 200 days ,Russia Will Win

It will take a year at least, russia will slowly grind their way through. Ukraine is a big country and to secure the acquired territory it requires more boots. We need to wait till winter, by october we will see how the EU reacts. If the war doesnt end by then they will pay a big price for gas.

Not even close, this war will last years. The Severodonetsk pocket closing was inevitable, they got their troops pulled out successfully without being captured. Putin's deadline was missed by a month roughly. Ukraine are now fighting on a level front from better positions, with better artillery, and Russia has lost a lot of ammunition supplies in the last 2 days. The problem with invasions is that the invader doesn't get to say when it's over. Take Afghanistan and Iraq, all invasion objectives were complete in weeks with trivial casualty figures. Stopping violence after that is the problem. Russia is likely years away from took weeks in Iraq and Afghanistan, and with non-trivial casualty figures, and that is by no means the end. NATO used exclusively precision munitions in Iraq and Afghanistan, with the exception of small arms and Apache/AC-130 gunfire. Russia is spraying cities with unguided MLRS and artillery salvos. That tends to to inspire hatred among the residents.

In Kherson, Russia is losing, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia are stalemate.

you got most of it wrong, in none of the invasions west was able to secure the territory. Destroying the state is one thing and controlling it effectively is totally different. There are severe cultural differences between afghanistan and russia but thats not the case with ukraine. Russia can play the same game of infiltrating eu or ukraine with agents and indulge in sabotage.

 

[randomradio]

Iglas were $80k 2003. Non-S model. You can easily double that for 2022. And you ain't shooting down a HIMARS rocket with an Igla.

9K38 Igla - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

M30/31 guided rocket, from same time frame.

GUIDED MULTIPLE LAUNCH ROCKET SYSTEM (GMLRS) ROCKET - FY00 Activity

www.globalsecurity.org

I'm sure I don't need to tell you that a Buk or Pantsir missile is a few dozen time the cost of an Igla. E.g. A Stinger in 2020 costs $120k, an AMRAAM $1.1-1.8m. That's the problem with HIMARS rockets, every time it's fired it costs the enemy at least 10x more than the price of the rocket. They shoot it down, it costs them >10x more, they don't shoot it down, it costs them >100x times more.

So you're saying the small and simple command-guided missile used in the Pantsir is twice as expensive as an advanced seeker-equipped Igla?

And on top of that you're comparing Russian prices to inflated export prices?

Hell, the advanced seeker-equipped Tamir missile for the Iron Dome costs $40,000. And you're actually suggesting a basic Russian mass-produced weapon is four times as expensive?

Just wow.

Have you actually realised you don't have even the slightest idea how cheap Russian weapons really are?

I didn't say one was hit in Belgorod. I believe the locations were Popasna, Melitopol, Snizhne, Donetsk and Kadiivka now.

Those are all normal frontline targets. Ocassionally a weapons shipment gets hit, it's called interdiction.

But that's what I'm say. He is spending less than he planned to spend even without a war that's costing $0.9bn/day. Hence:

In Putin's Russia, the Arrests Are Spreading Quickly and Widely

They came for Dmitry Kolker, an ailing physicist, in the intensive care ward. They came for Ivan Fedotov, a hockey star, as he was leaving practice with a film crew in tow. They came for Vladimir Mau, a state university rector, the week he was reelected to the board of Gazprom. The message sent...

us.yahoo.com

So even after spending 0.9B a day, the reduction in state spending is only 40B less. That's a remarkable achievement.

 

[randomradio]

It will take a year at least, russia will slowly grind their way through. Ukraine is a big country and to secure the acquired territory it requires more boots. We need to wait till winter, by october we will see how the EU reacts. If the war doesnt end by then they will pay a big price for gas.

Not necessarily. There will be a point at which Ukraine will run out of even the foreign supplied heavy weapons.

Plus Russia is very likely to mobilise, the Russian private sector has already received instructions towards supporting mobilisation.

 

[jetray]

Not necessarily. There will be a point at which Ukraine will run out of even the foreign supplied heavy weapons.

Plus Russia is very likely to mobilise, the Russian private sector has already received instructions towards supporting mobilisation.

Ukraine doesnt need heavy weapons, I think for all the hype hitech warfare was over in the first 2 months and it dint get the expected results for either side. Now it will be old style cqb where russians will have to clear street by street in urban areas but will move faster in open areas. As such it will be taking city by city with more urban battles being fought, for this supplies dont need to be exhaustive, whether it is syria or iraq we have seen rag tag militias hold off better equipped armies with less supplies. I bet ukraine would have already hoarded small arm ammunition caches in most places in anticipation of this.

 

[BMD]

High cost of Russian gains in Ukraine may limit new advance

After more than four months of ferocious fighting, Russia claimed a key victory: full control over one of the two provinces in Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland. The critical question now is whether Russia can muster enough strength for a new offensive to complete its capture of the Donbas...

www.yahoo.com

 

[BMD]

So you're saying the small and simple command-guided missile used in the Pantsir is twice as expensive as an advanced seeker-equipped Igla?

And on top of that you're comparing Russian prices to inflated export prices?

Hell, the advanced seeker-equipped Tamir missile for the Iron Dome costs $40,000. And you're actually suggesting a basic Russian mass-produced weapon is four times as expensive?

Just wow.

Have you actually realised you don't have even the slightest idea how cheap Russian weapons really are?



Those are all normal frontline targets. Ocassionally a weapons shipment gets hit, it's called interdiction.



So even after spending 0.9B a day, the reduction in state spending is only 40B less. That's a remarkable achievement.

It's not small, it's way bigger, and it isn't that simple. Prove me wrong, if you can find the price. Besides, the Belgorod incident has been officially denied by Ukraine. So it could be a false flag.

It's irrelevant, SAMs cost more than GPS guided artillery rockets. I can't believe we're even having this f*cking conversation about a fact every sensible person knows already.

Very dubious, I've found only one unreliable source, and an AIM-9 is 10x that price with a passive IIR seeker, Iron Dome has an ARH seeker.

AIM-9 Sidewinder - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

There is no official information on Iron Dome costs that's been published and the price varies widely (see link). Initially the estimated price per missile was put at nearer $1m.

Iron Dome | Air & Space Forces Magazine

Israel’s defensive system brings strategic and psychological protection from rocket attacks.

www.airforcemag.com

The Israeli government will not officially disclose this information.

Have they fired 25,000 Iron Missiles?

House passes $1 billion for Israel’s Iron Dome system in blowout vote

The House passed legislation overwhelmingly to provide $1 billion to Israel to restock its Iron Dome short-range missile defense system just days after Democrats removed the funding from a broad stopgap spending bill.

www.defensenews.com

WASHINGTON — The House passed legislation overwhelmingly to provide $1 billion to Israel to restock its Iron Dome short-range missile defense system just days after Democrats removed the funding from a broad stopgap spending bill.

Talkbacks Obama seeks $205 million for Israel rocket shield | page 2 | News Ynet

Iron Dome was created to defend against short range rockets such as katyushas and qassams, also ballistic missiles. However if it works look at the maths. A qassam costs maybe $50-100 to make, 1 iron dome missile costs $1M!!!!

I feel there's likely a zero missing, unless Israel can produce better missiles for less money today, than Russia could 20 years ago, even without adjusting for inflation... and they've used at least 25,000 of them. Seems somewhat unlikely don't you think. The low cost leaked is probably to dissuade certain people from firing rockets at them just to waste their money, or rather US money.

Like I said, find me evidence of what a Pantsir missile costs. Then find me evidence that one actually shot down a Tochka or HIMARS rocket.

Yeah, just wow, like I said, I can't even believe someone would be dumb enough to argue that a SAM costs less than a GPS artillery rocket, yet here we are.

It's called an ammo dump getting blown up.

That $0.9bn is subtracted from state spending before the $24bn cut. So the reduction to spending on state maintenance, public sector services and infrastructure is down $350+bn/year. That should cause some interesting issues.

 

[BMD]

Great. So Europe's decided to fight to the last Ukrainian. Welcome to Cold War 2.0.

Putin wanted to start a second Cold War not NATO. They were included in the G8 meeting, the EU tried to trade with them. Putin screwed it up by refusing to accept democracy in his neighbouring states.

 

[BMD]

It will take a year at least, russia will slowly grind their way through. Ukraine is a big country and to secure the acquired territory it requires more boots. We need to wait till winter, by october we will see how the EU reacts. If the war doesnt end by then they will pay a big price for gas.


you got most of it wrong, in none of the invasions west was able to secure the territory. Destroying the state is one thing and controlling it effectively is totally different. There are severe cultural differences between afghanistan and russia but thats not the case with ukraine. Russia can play the same game of infiltrating eu or ukraine with agents and indulge in sabotage.

The EU has likely already bought its gas for winter given the circumstances.

There are huge differences between Ukraine and Russia right now, they hate each other, that hatred won't magically subside just because Russia takes over. Can? It already does, that's how Ukraine ended up with war in the Donbass. Any Russian entering the EU will be flagged, and if there's sabotage they'll be bagged and tagged.

 

[BMD]

Mykolaiv marines liquidated the occupiers who "got lost in the three pines" 18+

The Armed Forces of Ukraine hit the barracks of the Russians in occupied Yasynuvatya

Russian missiles being shot down.

 

[BMD]

Ukraine destroys Kamaz centre in occupied Donetsk.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Intel Slava Z

🇺🇲🇪🇺🇺🇦⚡If Kiev does not turn the tide before autumn, then the West will start curtailing aid - The Telegraph Western countries are gradually coming to the conclusion that it is pointless to support Ukraine, according to a British publication. Generous arms deliveries only slightly slow...

t.me

 

[BMD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1544393125245894656

https://twitter.com/x/status/1544390614074245121

Intel Slava Z

🇺🇲🇪🇺🇺🇦⚡If Kiev does not turn the tide before autumn, then the West will start curtailing aid - The Telegraph Western countries are gradually coming to the conclusion that it is pointless to support Ukraine, according to a British publication. Generous arms deliveries only slightly slow...

t.me

Here's the actual article. The poster had read far more into it.

Ukraine needs a victory before autumn to silence Western doubters

Volodymyr Zelensky is running out of time to shore up support, with some believing his country’s battle against Russia is futile

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

'Rebuilding Ukraine will cost $750 billion'

This year, donor pledges for Afghanistan and Yemen fell far short of targets set by the United Nations

www.deccanherald.com

 

[BMD]

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Russia hammers Ukraine's Donetsk region after seizing Luhansk

Russian forces struck targets across Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region on Tuesday, a day after President Vladimir Putin declared victory in the neighbouring province of Luhansk after months of gruelling attritional warfare in which both sides lost many men.

www.reuters.com

 

[jetray]

'Rebuilding Ukraine will cost $750 billion'

This year, donor pledges for Afghanistan and Yemen fell far short of targets set by the United Nations

www.deccanherald.com

America will print trillion dollar , give 7 billion to ukraine and pocket the rest. On the books they show it as trillion dollar spent to change ukraine to completely destroyed.... err.......thriving country. Then they will sell trillion dollar bonds to china, India and rest of the world.

 

[randomradio]

Ukraine doesnt need heavy weapons, I think for all the hype hitech warfare was over in the first 2 months and it dint get the expected results for either side. Now it will be old style cqb where russians will have to clear street by street in urban areas but will move faster in open areas. As such it will be taking city by city with more urban battles being fought, for this supplies dont need to be exhaustive, whether it is syria or iraq we have seen rag tag militias hold off better equipped armies with less supplies. I bet ukraine would have already hoarded small arm ammunition caches in most places in anticipation of this.

NATO is planning to deliver hundreds of new artillery guns, more shells and even battle tanks and IFVs.

 

[randomradio]

It's not small, it's way bigger, and it isn't that simple. Prove me wrong, if you can find the price. Besides, the Belgorod incident has been officially denied by Ukraine. So it could be a false flag.

It's irrelevant, SAMs cost more than GPS guided artillery rockets. I can't believe we're even having this f*cking conversation about a fact every sensible person knows already.

Very dubious, I've found only one unreliable source, and an AIM-9 is 10x that price with a passive IIR seeker, Iron Dome has an ARH seeker.

AIM-9 Sidewinder - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

There is no official information on Iron Dome costs that's been published and the price varies widely (see link). Initially the estimated price per missile was put at nearer $1m.

Iron Dome | Air & Space Forces Magazine

Israel’s defensive system brings strategic and psychological protection from rocket attacks.

www.airforcemag.com

Have they fired 25,000 Iron Missiles?

House passes $1 billion for Israel’s Iron Dome system in blowout vote

The House passed legislation overwhelmingly to provide $1 billion to Israel to restock its Iron Dome short-range missile defense system just days after Democrats removed the funding from a broad stopgap spending bill.

www.defensenews.com

Talkbacks Obama seeks $205 million for Israel rocket shield | page 2 | News Ynet

I feel there's likely a zero missing, unless Israel can produce better missiles for less money today, than Russia could 20 years ago, even without adjusting for inflation... and they've used at least 25,000 of them. Seems somewhat unlikely don't you think. The low cost leaked is probably to dissuade certain people from firing rockets at them just to waste their money, or rather US money.

Like I said, find me evidence of what a Pantsir missile costs. Then find me evidence that one actually shot down a Tochka or HIMARS rocket.

Yeah, just wow, like I said, I can't even believe someone would be dumb enough to argue that a SAM costs less than a GPS artillery rocket, yet here we are.

It's called an ammo dump getting blown up.

Lol. The Pantsir is basically a rocket with command guidance.

Tamir:

Iron Dome (Israel) | Missile Threat

Iron Dome is an Israeli mobile missile defense system designed to intercept short-range rockets and artillery. It comprises the lowest tier of Israel’s missile defense architecture, intended to counter unguided rocket and drone attacks from the Palestinian Territories and Hezbollah-controlled...

missilethreat.csis.org

The Tamir interceptor was initially estimated to cost $100,000 to produce, but recent estimates assert unit costs of roughly $40,000 to $50,000 each.4

Iron Dome | Air & Space Forces Magazine

Israel’s defensive system brings strategic and psychological protection from rocket attacks.

www.airforcemag.com

Iron Dome’s Tamir missiles cost anywhere from $20,000 to $100,000 each, depending on whose numbers are being quoted.

That $0.9bn is subtracted from state spending before the $24bn cut. So the reduction to spending on state maintenance, public sector services and infrastructure is down $350+bn/year. That should cause some interesting issues.

Oh, so you're saying last year, when the budget was set, they had already decided they were going to spend, according to you, $0.9B a day and have already set that amount aside?

And they are down $350B a year when their yearly budget is less than $300B a year?

Do you actually think before you post? Or are you a bot of some kind?

Putin wanted to start a second Cold War not NATO. They were included in the G8 meeting, the EU tried to trade with them. Putin screwed it up by refusing to accept democracy in his neighbouring states.

Which page did you find this in CIA's factbook for sheep?

 

[randomradio]

Natural gas soars 700%, becoming driving force in the new cold war

The war in Ukraine brought the gas crisis to a new level, Natural Gas price jumps 700%, becoming a driving force in the new cold war.

www.business-standard.com

 

[jetray]

ouch ,

https://twitter.com/x/status/1534091925757771776