Ukraine - Russia Conflict
- Thread starter randomradio
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Published footage of the impact of the Russian kamikaze drone "Lancet" in the new Ukrainian EW station "Bukovel-AD". The Bukovel-AD electronic warfare complex was put into service in 2016 and is designed to combat drones. According to the developers, the complex suppresses the GPPS navigation of the Russian Orlan-10 UAVs at a distance of up to 100 km, the usual jamming radius: drones is up to 20 km, the deployment time of the complex is 2 minutes. The "Bukovel-AD" installation is placed on various chassis. As a result of the impact of the Lancet kamikaze drone, the Bukovel-AD electronic warfare complex burned down.
I feel like it would be fun to go back through this thread and reexamine some of what people where saying prior to the war. Russia's helicopters have been a non-factor with the proliferation of portable air-defence weapons while Javelin had an outsized impact in the war during the defence of Kiev in the initial stages and continues to cause damage to Russian armor today. I think it would be fun to go back and see how wrong (or if you're me, right) most people's analysis and reading of both sides capabilities and sustainment has been.
Javelin had its purpose, but most ATGM kill credits have been given to Russian ATGM designs which the Ukrainians were better trained in using during the Russian Kiev debacle. Most tank kills made by Ukraine was using artillery, as much as 70-80%, throughout the war. Yeah, after they used all their inventories up they are now relying almost exclusively on foreign supplies, so that's a given.
This is not a war, it's something else entirely. Like a hybrid-proxy war. So Russia's air force is a non-factor by itself. And while the Russian army is taking losses along the frontline, this war is basically the UAF fighting a pseudo-private company, basically mercenaries. And with Wagner scouring for low-lifes not just from Russian prisons but mercenaries from across the world, it's unclear how many fighters are foreigners, we are seeing low-lifes and non-Russians killing Ukrainians.
Anyway, expert opinion from this side apparently is the Russian army is not fighting the way they are supposed to. Not scouting positions properly, not protecting flanks, not making more efficient tactical decisions, like how they should have moved faster from Popasna towards Lysychansk, and so on. It's basically a circus act.
This goes to show the Russians have very different objectives versus what we are expecting out of them. Their tactical bungling aside, they are still making progress with lower losses compared to the opposition, and the hot war is limiting NATO's options in dealing with Russia directly, like Russia's other neighbours who want out, like Georgia, and allowing Putin to maintain an iron grip over his political opponents domestically. And at the same time, Russia's safely increasing the production rate of their heavy weapons while NATO's been largely sitting around (I guess Poland's buying time for NATO). In the meantime, the Russians are slowly whittling away at Ukraine's economy and population to the point where NATO's gonna have to foot their entire bill for a decade or more after the war. And we are yet to see any significant economic damage to Russia at this time.
So, no, while Javelin's achievements, although decent, has not done as much as people think. And Ukraine's facing a whole lot of other problems that the Javelin alone cannot solve. The Kiev debacle in particular was a political move rather than an effective military strategy. It's an argument for why politicians shouldn't play as generals.
Whether it's it's propaganda to push for SAM supplies to Ukraine or not, there are obvious assertions in this article.
Western intelligence shows Russians amassing aircraft on Ukraine border
Nato allies to prioritise rapid shipments of air defences and ammunition as conflict enters new phase
Ukraine’s current air defences were “not enough and we’re going to keep pushing until we get more because that threat is out there”, he said. “We want to make sure they have the ability to protect themselves in the event Russia decides to introduce its air force into the fight.”
Since the first weeks of the war, following president Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion on February 24 last year, Russia has used its sizeable air forces sparingly, relying instead on long-range missiles, artillery and land-based troops. Western analysts had speculated that this could have been because of a fear in Moscow that Ukraine’s air defence systems posed a threat to Russian aircraft, or because its fleet was in poor condition.
But intelligence assessments indicate that Russia’s air force is “actually quite preserved”, a senior Nato diplomat said.
“More than 80 per cent probably is safe and available . . . So we are expecting that they’re preparing to launch an air campaign and they’ve been trying to [disable] Ukrainian air defences with attacks,” the diplomat said.
If what Austin says is true and we could see the Russians operating with their air force, then we should be able to see what the Russians are truly capable of. All this while I suppose they didn't use their air force to avoid accidents with NATO, and to buy time to plug holes in their forces and introduce new capabilities for deterrence before taking risks with NATO and escalating the war in Ukraine. The Russians too could upgrade from "SMO" to "war" if that's the case.
Let's not forget that Russian ground units took until Oct-Nov to be brought up to full strength post mobilisation. Now it's just a waiting game. I suppose things should start moving a bit faster after Bakhmut falls. It's possibly what the Russians are waiting for.
With that said, NATO assistance to Ukraine has been really slow. It's not compensating quickly for UAF losses and the new capabilities being brought in aren't enough to deal with any major escalation.
How so, there is no idea of scale. The rim of the partial ring at the front has too holes just like an Iskander photo'd earlier in the war, and we know Kinzhal is based on Iskander.
Russia’s Use Of Iskander Ballistic Missiles In Ukraine Exposes Secret Decoy Capability
The novel decoy, ejected from the base of the missile, is designed to confuse hostile radar and interceptor missiles.
www.thedrive.com
You have a well proven track record of being wrong about everything in this war for 15 months. What happened to the Ukrainian frontline collapsing? Remember that comment? It came just before Russia lost Kharkiv, Lyman and Izium. You are in no position to categorise what passes as common sense.
Putin's fighting power is exhausted in Ukraine – here's why | Defence in Depth
Video analysis: As Russian assaults in Ukraine dwindle, Putin's army is making a mockery of three key components of fighting power
www.telegraph.co.uk
How so, there is no idea of scale. The rim of the partial ring at the front has too holes just like an Iskander photo'd earlier in the war, and we know Kinzhal is based on Iskander.
Russia’s Use Of Iskander Ballistic Missiles In Ukraine Exposes Secret Decoy Capability
The novel decoy, ejected from the base of the missile, is designed to confuse hostile radar and interceptor missiles.
View attachment 27693
Are "you" serious? I thought you won't have issues with scale.
How is this:
The same as this:
This exchange reminded me of this:
See what happens when you use your 'communist sense'. Note two small holes.Are "you" serious? I thought you won't have issues with scale.
How is this:
The same as this:
This exchange reminded me of this:
Dagger Fallen – Assessing Ukraine’s Downing of the Kinzhal Missile
On 5 May 2023, Ukrainian local news outlet Defense Express announced that Ukraine’s defence forces managed to shoot down a Russian Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile at around 02:40 on 4 May over Kyiv.
euro-sd.com
That's an internal part not the missile body. This rim is from the body (same diameter/curvature). And if you look in the background below you will see a label saying 'X-55', so not all the parts are Kinzhal. There obviously won't be much left when an interceptor doing >Mach 5 hits an ALBM doing Mach 12.
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Exactly, that piece is the warhead, whichg is around half the diameter of the missile (0.92m) itself. Some people using 'common sense' are expecting the missile to be in one piece.
Dagger Fallen – Assessing Ukraine’s Downing of the Kinzhal Missile
On 5 May 2023, Ukrainian local news outlet Defense Express announced that Ukraine’s defence forces managed to shoot down a Russian Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile at around 02:40 on 4 May over Kyiv.
euro-sd.com
You have a well proven track record of being wrong about everything in this war for 15 months. What happened to the Ukrainian frontline collapsing? Remember that comment? It came just before Russia lost Kharkiv, Lyman and Izium. You are in no position to categorise what passes as common sense.
Putin's fighting power is exhausted in Ukraine – here's why | Defence in Depth
Video analysis: As Russian assaults in Ukraine dwindle, Putin's army is making a mockery of three key components of fighting power
Right after the first month, I claimed maneuver warfare has been replaced by attrition warfare. Any collapse is subject to Russia actually entering the fight whole hog. Right now, the UAF is just fighting a "private" company.
Here's another interesting claim I made on the 7th of Feb last year.
One from Jan 30th, 2022, based on a video by Caspian Report:
A bit of background, as per the video: Phase 1 saw the Russians taking Kharkiv and going all the way to the Dnieper in practically a straight line. Phase 2 was the pincer attack on Kiev, which I later claimed, above, that the Russians will only surround the city for a political settlement rather than militarily take the city. Phase 3 sees the Russians crossing the river in the south and taking most of Ukraine.
As far as I was concerned, cities like Kiev and Kharkiv will only be surrounded, the Russians won't take the cities aggressively, and any aggression shown will be extremely limited and with strategic goals, like pushing for a surrender, already pointed out in numerous posts. And I assumed that the Russians will never cross the river without dealing with Donbas first, although they did in Kherson, but that was due to the mayor surrendering the city without a fight. But they didn't go beyond Kherson. Both maneuvers required more number of troops than they had. So I had always assumed the war will be fought south of Kharkiv and east of Kherson, basically for Donbas and getting water to Crimea.
So, all my predictions were pretty much 100% accurate. And this is a whole month before the war even started. The only things I couldn't predict was the withdrawal from Kiev or that this war will take this long, 'cause I had assumed taking Donbas and connecting Crimea to water will take just 2-3 months, of course, I assumed this bit after the war began. But who the hell expected the Russians would actually half-*censored* a major war...
There are two reasons why the timeframe has not been met. One, the Russians half-arsed the war, they should have mobilised in March 2022. Two, Zelensky pushed UAF into a series of meat grinders. Normally, you would withdraw and move to more defensible positions instead of just getting your troops killed defending untenable positions. But Zelensky went against Gen Zaluzhny's advice and decided to buy time by getting Ukrainian troops killed. Hence the insane death rate of the troops. Of course, Zelensky has successfully bought time for Ukraine in the process. He's a really fvcked up guy. He is not someone one should fight under. Of course, Wagner has been equally bad, playing fire with fire, but they are delivering results quite consistently.
I made both these posts a month before the war began. Good luck finding a better prediction elsewhere.
