Ukraine - Russia Conflict

BMD said:
See what happens when you use your 'communist sense'. Note two small holes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1656424826993795072

euro-sd.com

Dagger Fallen – Assessing Ukraine’s Downing of the Kinzhal Missile

On 5 May 2023, Ukrainian local news outlet Defense Express announced that Ukraine’s defence forces managed to shoot down a Russian Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile at around 02:40 on 4 May over Kyiv.
euro-sd.com euro-sd.com

View attachment 27697

View attachment 27698

That's an internal part not the missile body. This rim is from the body (same diameter/curvature). And if you look in the background below you will see a label saying 'X-55', so not all the parts are Kinzhal. There obviously won't be much left when an interceptor doing >Mach 5 hits an ALBM doing Mach 12.

View attachment 27694


View attachment 27695
Click to expand...

Apparently the Russians are claiming this is the bomb in the video.
BetAB-500ShP.RU.grey.jpg


The Kinzhal warhead is far bigger than a person. And the circumfrence of the exhaust fragment is too small. Also, the holes are extremely close together in the Kinzhal whereas the fragment has those holes far apart.

Common sense wins again.
 
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Anyway, I wanted to add this as well. It's not a big deal to shoot down the Kinzhal. It's just a ballistic missile based on the Iskander. What's special about it is that it's air-launched. Friction will slow it down well enough. And a Patriot battery can track missiles faster than that.
 
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randomradio said:
Anyway, I wanted to add this as well. It's not a big deal to shoot down the Kinzhal. It's just a ballistic missile based on the Iskander. What's special about it is that it's air-launched. Friction will slow it down well enough. And a Patriot battery can track missiles faster than that.
Click to expand...
This is what they are ignoring. Intercepting Zircon or Avangard is the real deal.
 
randomradio said:
Apparently the Russians are claiming this is the bomb in the video.
BetAB-500ShP.RU.grey.jpg


The Kinzhal warhead is far bigger than a person. And the circumfrence of the exhaust fragment is too small. Also, the holes are extremely close together in the Kinzhal whereas the fragment has those holes far apart.

Common sense wins again.
Click to expand...
FFS, can you not read a diagram even?! The entire nose section might be 3m but the warhead itself is only about half that, i.e. smaller than Klitschko who is 2m tall.


euro-sd.com

Dagger Fallen – Assessing Ukraine’s Downing of the Kinzhal Missile

On 5 May 2023, Ukrainian local news outlet Defense Express announced that Ukraine’s defence forces managed to shoot down a Russian Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile at around 02:40 on 4 May over Kyiv.
euro-sd.com euro-sd.com

1683898349251.png



9.2cm = 3m, 4.6cm = 1.5m
1683898301891.png




Note the welding seams between the holes and the fact the bottom of the nose tip is not full diameter like the bomb you posted. The bottom hole is also nearer the base than the bomb you posted, and the holes are further apart too.

1683898926473.png
 
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randomradio said:
Right after the first month, I claimed maneuver warfare has been replaced by attrition warfare. Any collapse is subject to Russia actually entering the fight whole hog. Right now, the UAF is just fighting a "private" company.

Here's another interesting claim I made on the 7th of Feb last year.


One from Jan 30th, 2022, based on a video by Caspian Report:


A bit of background, as per the video: Phase 1 saw the Russians taking Kharkiv and going all the way to the Dnieper in practically a straight line. Phase 2 was the pincer attack on Kiev, which I later claimed, above, that the Russians will only surround the city for a political settlement rather than militarily take the city. Phase 3 sees the Russians crossing the river in the south and taking most of Ukraine.

As far as I was concerned, cities like Kiev and Kharkiv will only be surrounded, the Russians won't take the cities aggressively, and any aggression shown will be extremely limited and with strategic goals, like pushing for a surrender, already pointed out in numerous posts. And I assumed that the Russians will never cross the river without dealing with Donbas first, although they did in Kherson, but that was due to the mayor surrendering the city without a fight. But they didn't go beyond Kherson. Both maneuvers required more number of troops than they had. So I had always assumed the war will be fought south of Kharkiv and east of Kherson, basically for Donbas and getting water to Crimea.

So, all my predictions were pretty much 100% accurate. And this is a whole month before the war even started. The only things I couldn't predict was the withdrawal from Kiev or that this war will take this long, 'cause I had assumed taking Donbas and connecting Crimea to water will take just 2-3 months, of course, I assumed this bit after the war began. But who the hell expected the Russians would actually half-*censored* a major war...

There are two reasons why the timeframe has not been met. One, the Russians half-arsed the war, they should have mobilised in March 2022. Two, Zelensky pushed UAF into a series of meat grinders. Normally, you would withdraw and move to more defensible positions instead of just getting your troops killed defending untenable positions. But Zelensky went against Gen Zaluzhny's advice and decided to buy time by getting Ukrainian troops killed. Hence the insane death rate of the troops. Of course, Zelensky has successfully bought time for Ukraine in the process. He's a really fvcked up guy. He is not someone one should fight under. Of course, Wagner has been equally bad, playing fire with fire, but they are delivering results quite consistently.

I made both these posts a month before the war began. Good luck finding a better prediction elsewhere.
Click to expand...
So now you're posting proof that you were wrong. They didn't succeed in cutting Kyiv off from supplies either.

Just a private military? Yeah, and about 500-700k mobilised soldiers. The Wagner PMC is actually better equipped and trained than rest of the Russian army and filled with volunteers rather than people dragged off the street and threatened with prison.

The rest is just blah, blah wrong. Russia has spent 5 months dying in huge quantities outside Bakhmut trying to take it and is now being pushed back after Wagner ran out of bodies.

All your predictions are hilarious, you take all your information from Russian state-controlled propaganda. As regards half-arsing a war, there are political factors to consider when mobilising, and there is logistics and training and the wider economy, which places limits. No European nation has committed as heavily to a war as Russia has since WWII.
 
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Russian Mi-28 crashed near Dzhankoi, killing both pilots.

t.me

РИА Новости

❗️Минобороны России: Сегодня при выполнении планового учебно-тренировочного полета в Джанкойском районе Крыма потерпел катастрофу вертолет Ми-28. Полет выполнялся без боекомплекта, на земле разрушений нет. Оба летчика погибли. Предварительная причина крушения - отказ техники.
t.me t.me
 
randomradio said:
Anyway, I wanted to add this as well. It's not a big deal to shoot down the Kinzhal. It's just a ballistic missile based on the Iskander. What's special about it is that it's air-launched. Friction will slow it down well enough. And a Patriot battery can track missiles faster than that.
Click to expand...
Typical, deny, deny and then mitigate. You have learnt well from the Russian media I see.

It travels at 60km so air-resistance is minimal. Also be aware that the Patriot which intercepted it as a PAC-2 GEM-T, which is a single piece fin-steered missile that's an upgrade of the same missile unit used to shoot down Scuds during the Gulf War back in 1991. So it's not like it was the best US interceptor that shot it down either.

You continue being wrong on the war too:

#Bakhmut : according to the latest statements of #Pryghozin and also of the Russian defense ministry (tweet), the Russians have retreated ( run away) from the Bilhorivka reservoir..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1657053882437050371
 
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BMD said:
See what happens when you use your 'communist sense'. Note two small holes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1656424826993795072

euro-sd.com

Dagger Fallen – Assessing Ukraine’s Downing of the Kinzhal Missile

On 5 May 2023, Ukrainian local news outlet Defense Express announced that Ukraine’s defence forces managed to shoot down a Russian Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile at around 02:40 on 4 May over Kyiv.
euro-sd.com euro-sd.com

View attachment 27697

View attachment 27698

That's an internal part not the missile body. This rim is from the body (same diameter/curvature). And if you look in the background below you will see a label saying 'X-55', so not all the parts are Kinzhal. There obviously won't be much left when an interceptor doing >Mach 5 hits an ALBM doing Mach 12.

View attachment 27694


View attachment 27695
Click to expand...
Lol. You and I saw this coming miles away only you beat me to the graphs/pics.
 
BMD said:
So now you're posting proof that you were wrong. They didn't succeed in cutting Kyiv off from supplies either.
Click to expand...

Which part of the Russians half-arsed it don't you get? They used 7 BTGs on the other side of the river, and expecting that there won't be a fight. It was impossible without 3 times the number at the minimum. They failed to encircle Kharkiv as well.

I predicted the current situation quite accurately, but I didn't predict Russian losses by means of half-arsing. I actually expected them to go in guns blazing, not wishing for a victory parade on day 1.

BMD said:
Just a private military? Yeah, and about 500-700k mobilised soldiers. The Wagner PMC is actually better equipped and trained than rest of the Russian army and filled with volunteers rather than people dragged off the street and threatened with prison.
Click to expand...

As per UK MoD, Wagner consists of 50k troops, 80% of them being from Russian prisons. You can bet the prisoners did not really have as much of a choice as you think.

Most of those mobilised soldiers are yet to begin fighting. And most of the fighting is being done by Wagner and the DNR militias. No one disputes this.

BMD said:
The rest is just blah, blah wrong. Russia has spent 5 months dying in huge quantities outside Bakhmut trying to take it and is now being pushed back after Wagner ran out of bodies.
Click to expand...

Good luck if you believe that. :ROFLMAO:

Yes, Bakhmut's a meat grinder and Wagner troops are dying at a higher rate than they expected. The Russians have been pushing aggressively with more expendable troops. But it's been really, really bad for Ukraine with less heavy weapons.

BMD said:
All your predictions are hilarious, you take all your information from Russian state-controlled propaganda. As regards half-arsing a war, there are political factors to consider when mobilising, and there is logistics and training and the wider economy, which places limits. No European nation has committed as heavily to a war as Russia has since WWII.
Click to expand...

Nope. I don't rely on Russian sources, it's mostly crap. I rely on internal Indian assessments. I don't know what you're seeing, but the war map sees the Russians gaining ground.

The Russians always had the option of mobilising very early on, or even use the air force, but Putin screwed up with wrong intelligence.
 
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BMD said:
Typical, deny, deny and then mitigate. You have learnt well from the Russian media I see.

It travels at 60km so air-resistance is minimal. Also be aware that the Patriot which intercepted it as a PAC-2 GEM-T, which is a single piece fin-steered missile that's an upgrade of the same missile unit used to shoot down Scuds during the Gulf War back in 1991. So it's not like it was the best US interceptor that shot it down either.
Click to expand...

What are you talking about? So what if a missile does 60Km, the Patriot would engage at below 30Km.

Even then, a BM starts losing speed quite rapidly over time. It doesn't stay powered on forever. Apogee, drop and fall/glide and begins slowing.
 
randomradio said:
Which part of the Russians half-arsed it don't you get? They used 7 BTGs on the other side of the river, and expecting that there won't be a fight. It was impossible without 3 times the number at the minimum. They failed to encircle Kharkiv as well.

I predicted the current situation quite accurately, but I didn't predict Russian losses by means of half-arsing. I actually expected them to go in guns blazing, not wishing for a victory parade on day 1.



As per UK MoD, Wagner consists of 50k troops, 80% of them being from Russian prisons. You can bet the prisoners did not really have as much of a choice as you think.

Most of those mobilised soldiers are yet to begin fighting. And most of the fighting is being done by Wagner and the DNR militias. No one disputes this.



Good luck if you believe that. :ROFLMAO:

Yes, Bakhmut's a meat grinder and Wagner troops are dying at a higher rate than they expected. The Russians have been pushing aggressively with more expendable troops. But it's been really, really bad for Ukraine with less heavy weapons.



Nope. I don't rely on Russian sources, it's mostly crap. I rely on internal Indian assessments. I don't know what you're seeing, but the war map sees the Russians gaining ground.

The Russians always had the option of mobilising very early on, or even use the air force, but Putin screwed up with wrong intelligence.
Click to expand...
No dude, you predicted the Ukrainian front line was going to collapse after Russia too Sievierodonetsk. You got it wrong, you got everything wrong from the start. You claimed the assault on Kyiiv was manoeuvre warfare, whereas in truth Russia expected a walk in the park and lost thousands

Wagner have proven more effective than the other groups. It's as simple as that. Some may be from prisons, others are not. It isn't the ones from prisons in Sudan, Mali, Syria, Libya etc. PMCs in general consist of highly paid ex-veterans, that's just a hard fact. regardless of what you'd like to believe.

It's a damn fact, Prigozhin threw the towel in.

Yet yesterday and this morning you were here copying and pasting Russian propaganda after the Kinzhal warhead being a BETAB-500 even when the hole spacing is clearly >2x the 250mm (10inch) spacing on the BETAB-500. You never bothered to think for yourself. Another question, do you seriously think the Russians didn't know it was a Kinzhal warhead and not a BETAB-500 given that it's their weapon? Do you not think they did the same thing when they downed a Dutch airliner with a Buk too?

You talk about mobilisation as if it's a finger snap without consequences. For every frontline troop, you need many support troops, a full mobilisation basically requires nearly everyone in the country either at the front or serving military support roles, i.e. no economy and massive deficit, even when not sanctioned.

Use the AF? They did, it failed to achieve air superiority.
 
randomradio said:
What are you talking about? So what if a missile does 60Km, the Patriot would engage at below 30Km.

Even then, a BM starts losing speed quite rapidly over time. It doesn't stay powered on forever. Apogee, drop and fall/glide and begins slowing.
Click to expand...
All weapons do. Zircon will likely lose even more speed descending to target when it meets thicker air as an aerodynamic structure rather than an RV-type weapon.
 
Innominate said:
Lol. You and I saw this coming miles away only you beat me to the graphs/pics.
Click to expand...
It turns out that Russian propaganda actually proved itself wrong. Here was their attempt. The lug-spacing on a BETAB-500 is known to be only 10inch. Note welding seams position relative to holes. :ROFLMAO:

1683917651629.png
 
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LOLZ. :ROFLMAO:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1657071174646366248

Specifications (Raytheon ADM-160B)​

  • Length : 2.84 m (9 ft 7 in)
  • Wingspan : 1.71 m (5 ft 7 in) fully extended
  • Weight : 115 kg (250 lb)
  • Speed : Mach 0.91
  • Ceiling : Over 12,200 m (40,000 ft)
  • Range : Approximately 920 km (575 mi) with ability to loiter over target
  • Endurance : Over 45 min at altitude
  • Propulsion : Hamilton Sundstrand TJ-150 turbojet
  • Unit cost : US$120,000
 
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