Ukraine - Russia Conflict

www.theguardian.com

Nova Kakhovka dam: everything you need to know about Ukraine’s strategically important reservoir

Ukraine has accused Russia of blowing up the huge dam which provides water to Crimea and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

The dam itself is 30 metres tall and hundreds of metres wide.
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There is no f*cking way Ukraine could have gotten that much explosive that close to the Russian side. The Eder dam was only 36m at the base and required 3t of explosive to blow it.

en.wikipedia.org

Edersee Dam - Wikipedia

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en.wikipedia.org

Bouncing bomb - Wikipedia

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It's logistically impossible for Ukraine to have done it.
 
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1666100669667844099

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1666100658628435968

https://twitter.com/x/status/1666100669667844099



Very important on #Kakhovka. The chronology of the terrorist attack by Russian terrorists. Or how Russians screwed in their excuses. At two o'clock in the morning, the Russians blow up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, but they don't see how much. It's not very visible, but it can still hit.

1. The Russians still think that they have neatly blown up a small part of the HPP and are flooding our military on the islands. At 6:06 a.m., the head of Nova Kakhovka, Leontyev, said that the explosion of the GES was nonsense. Like, we don't know why the water rose there. Here is the link to Ria Novosti's http://archive.is/aTyK8

2. Russian OSINT intelligence community Rybar picks up the thesis and says a small area was blown up at 6:51 a.m. Link http://archive.ph/flapa

3. At 6:51 in Nova Kakhovka, they see that the dam is a complete *censored*, and the mom's stratagems start to realize that they are in trouble. The mayor of Nova Kakhovka abruptly changes his rhetoric and says there was no explosion, it was a shelling by the Ukrainian army. Link http://archive.ph/LFFKF

4. But the propagandists, who do not know what the *censored* has happened, continue to work according to the methodology and continue to throw into the information space that the dam was previously shelled, and then it got a little tired and broke a little. Here is a post by Podolyaki's propagandist http://archive.ph/DgQIV. And the propaganda channel War on Fakes http://archive.ph/GRN55

5. Other telegram channels that cooperate with the military are happily hopping on one leg, cheering, because of the undermining of the Kakhovka dam, the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the islands are flooded, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to evacuate and escape, and then they publish joyful reports of how they are hitting the positions of our guys on the islands. 08:25 Link http://archive.ph/c0iHL

6. Here, the Russians are slowly realizing that they have created a large-scale man-made environmental disaster, almost as large as Chernobyl. And they are starting to reverse. Russian influence on the information space is changing its tone dramatically. They instantly change their tune and start accusing the Ukrainian side of provocations. Like it's a Bankova operation A reference to the same "war on fakes" that said the dam had somehow collapsed on its own.... http://archive.ph/x8uwT But even in their excuses, the racists still screwed up. Either the dam was blown up, or Olha was shelled with MLRS.... http://archive.ph/uF0Xm Although any sapper will give a hundred percent guarantee that it is impossible to make such destruction from the outside, the damage here was done by planting explosives And then they are already beginning to adhere to this thesis, because what they have done is a huge international tragedy, especially in the environmental sense. I have translated this text from https://t.me/jurnko Telegram channel
 
Hydra said:
Exactly.
@Rajput Lion shows how mediocre & unprofessional is Russian military. They let enemies to blown up the Dam.
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It has nothing to do with competence. You can't protect such targets.

This is what the UN has to say about it:

Water and Armed Conflicts | How does law protect in war? - Online casebook

casebook.icrc.org casebook.icrc.org
On the subject of works or installations containing dangerous forces, humanitarian law explicitly mentions dams, dykes and nuclear electrical generating sections. Even where these are military objectives, it is forbidden to attack them when such action could release dangerous forces and consequently cause heavy losses among the civilian population. The ban also extends on the same terms to other military objectives at or in the vicinity of such facilities. Immunity from attack is waived only when one or other of the works, installations or facilities is used in regular, significant and direct support of military operations and if attacks are the only feasible way to terminate such support.

1. In addition to the other protections provided by these Rules, combatants shall not make dams and dikes the objects of attack, even where these are military objectives, if such an attack may cause the release of dangerous forces and consequent severe losses among the civilian population.

2. This protection ceases if the dam or dike is used for other than its normal function and in regular, significant, and direct support of military operations and such attack is the only feasible way to terminate such use.

The Ukrainians have now broken every humanitarian law in the book.

Hydra said:
Can expect same level of incompetency in the weapon they developed too.
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They suffer from training and manpower quality. A weapon is only as good as its wielder. Overall, Russian army weapons are slightly worse, equal or slightly better than what Europe itself uses.
BMD said:
Oh and the Russians aren't monitoring that? They just let Ukrainians move maybe 5t of explosives underwater to the dam right next to the turbine hall that they control?

Whilst amphibious vehicles can cross water they are still better on land, a shorter crossing would have been more advantageous and would also have allowed for pontoon bridging to move heavy tanks in later on.

Russian fortifications in Belgorod didn't perform to well.
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True dat, the Russians need to keep an eye out for Ukraine breaking international law every other week and the West not just turning a blind eye to it, but also supporting it.
 
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Hydra said:
I m having a working brain, i have my reasons to beleive that its not Russian act.
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Correct. Once again Ukronazis are at their dirty work.
Hydra said:
Exactly.
@Rajput Lion shows how mediocre & unprofessional is Russian military.
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While they are no where near Indian army's professional level(very few are anyway), they are as good or bad as the enemies they are fighting/will fight.
Hydra said:
They let enemies to blown up the Dam. Can expect same level of incompetency in the weapon they developed too.
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Wrong. Russian Submarines are world class and so are their missiles. Their weapons are very good and effective. Our army and air force are no fools to use their weapons in abundance. I believe my country's forces above all the cyber propaganda.
 
Rajput Lion said:
While they are no where near Indian army's professional level(very few are anyway), they are as good or bad as the enemies they are fighting/will fight.
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how did you come to such a conclusion, when was the last time India fought a full large scale war which displayed their competency ?
 
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jetray said:
how did you come to such a conclusion, when was the last time India fought a full large scale war which displayed their competency ?
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Unlike forced/conscription based Russian army, our army is full-on volunteer and large(st) one. The difference is stark, IMO. If you believe otherwise then 'to each his own' (y).
 
randomradio said:
It has nothing to do with competence. You can't protect such targets.
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The building next to the breach is Russian controlled, the Ukrainian-controlled bank is 1 mile away. It takes tons of explosives to blow a dam that size. How the hell can you smuggle that much explosive that distance under the guns of the enemy in an active war zone.
 
randomradio said:
True dat, the Russians need to keep an eye out for Ukraine breaking international law every other week and the West not just turning a blind eye to it, but also supporting it.
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Oh sure. Indian mainstream pro-Russian propaganda is a war crime every day. Ignore all the apartment blocks, shopping malls, hospitals, schools, theatres, flattened cities, mass graves, kidnapped children, torture etc. and pretend Russia has done no wrong simply because you rely on them for oil and weapons.

It is logistically impossible for Ukraine to have moved several tons of explosive 1 mile from their bank, across the river, under the eyes and fire of the enemy. Russia on the other hand controlled the turbine hall and had access. Remember, this is not the Kherson bridge, and even that took many HIMARS to put out of commission. This is not any bridge, this is a large dam, they are notoriously hard to destroy. There was no traffic over the bridge, so that's out too. Aside from the Russians moving it in, a very large submersible is the only other option, assuming nets weren't deployed. Ukraine have no such craft, because they'd have used it on Russian ships if they had.

It's a crime of access, only Russia had the access.

Kherson is also a pro-Ukrainian Oblast, they would not choose to flood homes there.
 
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Rajput Lion said:
Unlike forced/conscription based Russian army, our army is full-on volunteer and large(st) one. The difference is stark, IMO. If you believe otherwise then 'to each his own' (y).
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Not all Russia forces in Ukraine are conscription, some are volunteer, some are special forces, some (Wagner) veterans.

No plan survives first contact with the enemy. - Helmuth von Moltke

Everyone has a plan until they get a smack in the mouth. - Mike Tyson.
 
Hydra said:
I m having a working brain, i have my reasons to beleive that its not Russian act.

Exactly.
@Rajput Lion shows how mediocre & unprofessional is Russian military. They let enemies to blown up the Dam. Can expect same level of incompetency in the weapon they developed too.
Click to expand...
1. Flooding at the point of contact has never helped an offensive. Many examples in history show where it's been used to do exactly the opposite.

2. AAVs are a lot slower on water than on land. A short crossing is by far preferable to a long crossing for that very reason. A long crossing would leave them at low speed exposed to Russian artillery, drones and direct fire for a long period, which is borderline suicidal.

3. Getting AAVs across is only part of the problem as you still have to supply and reinforce them to sustain a beachhead. A short crossing near the island could easily have been bridged allowing for fast and relatively easy movement of supplies (munitions, food, water, medical stuff etc.). Getting all that crap across a wide flooded area is damn near impossible. Ditto for MBT backup. The softer resulting ground also complicates things for MBTs near the flooded section. The only way to get MBTs across now would those huge hovercraft that the Russians have and the Ukrainians do not.

en.wikipedia.org

Zubr-class LCAC - Wikipedia

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4. Kherson is very pro-Ukrainian,, it is not in Ukraine's interest to flood their homes. In fact I struggle to see any real benefit to Ukraine from this. Some Russian positions were flooded but some Ukrainian positions were too.

5. There is some suggestion from the chronology of announcements that Russia made a mistake. They only meant to create a partial breach and flood Ukrainian positions on the island downstream, this would have kept the upstream part full enough to still supply the canal to Crimea, but Russia being Russia and water being water, a partial breach turned into a full breach, flooding some of their own positions and screwing up the supply to the canal.

6. You might argue that one motive might be for Ukraine to disrupt the supply to Crimea, but there's no military advantage to that, and Crimea managed for 8 years without it anyway.

7. Combine the above with the fact that it's next to the Russian-controlled side and turbine hall and the fact that the quantity of explosives required is huge (tons), it's very difficult for me to believe the Ukrainians did it, especially given that it's 1 mile from their bank. How do you move that quantity of explosives 1 mile and put it there next to an enemy-controlled critical infrastructure object?
 
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Ukraine has not yet launched counteroffensive.

t.me

Українська правда

Секретар РНБО Данілов у коментарі Reuters заявив, що Україна ще не розпочала запланований контрнаступ, а його початок буде очевидним для всіх, коли це станеться 🔻підписатися
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BMD said:
6. You might argue that one motive might be for Ukraine to disrupt the supply to Crimea, but there's no military advantage to that, and Crimea managed for 8 years without it anyway.
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@Hydra Coincidently turns out that Crimea has enough water reserves anyway.

t.me

ТАСС

Возможное обмеление Северо-Крымского канала из-за подрыва Каховской ГЭС не будет критичным для Крыма, запасов воды в республике достаточно, заявил председатель Государственного совета республики Владимир Константинов в эфире телеканала "Россия-24".
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Russian military not allowing civilians to evacuate flooded areas.

t.me

hromadske

💔 Військові 406 бригади передали коптером воду жінці з дітьми — вони перебувають на даху затопленого будинку на Херсонщині і чекають на порятунок 🔸 hromadske | новини тут
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The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation called the explosion of the ammonia pipeline "Togliatti-Odessa" a blow to the "grain deal"

t.me

Интерфакс

❌В МИД РФ назвали подрыв аммиакопровода "Тольятти-Одесса" ударом по "зерновой сделке" @interfaxonline
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