This is what exactly will happen.
Scenario will be like this:
On a calm evening of approaching winters around 1630hrs, amid high tensions, Pakistan scrambles
12 F-16 in a group of 3 each
16 Mirage 5 group of 4
16 JF17 grp of 4
16 Mirage III grp of 4
18 F7p grp of 3
Supported by AWACS over Isb and Sindh
to raid 3 Indian airbases and multiple army installations in Punjab J&K Rajasthan ,esp srinagar, pathankot , forward airbases in Rajasthan and Gujarat.
Indian airforce detects the multiple enemy aircrafts and scrambles
6 Mig 21 grp of 2 ,
6 Su 30mki grp of 2 , ( including 2 already airborne doing CAP)
A Mirage 2K grp of 4 ( already air borne over Rajasthan)
3 Rafale , 1 grp.
in the next 30 minutes of engagement 4 PAF JF17 and 5 F-16s locks down the ground targets and others engage in from standoff distance and conducts the raid on forward bases. And others engage with IAF with their BVRs and EW.
In this engagements, Pakistan loses 1 F16s to 3 Mig 21s and 2 Su 30 , Rafale knocks down 1 Mirage III
SAM are activated and it shoots down 1 FP7 flying close to IB.
IAF loses 1 mig 21 engaged with 4 Jf17 on VR engagement to Pakistani SAM. Mirage 2K continues the EW.
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In next 12 hours
Rajnath : we condemn Pakistani act
there will be baithak at PM's house, what to do now.
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LOC is activated , India shells forward posts, to build a narrative till then to prevent diplomatic fallout
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By the time US and Canada intervenes amid Af Peace talks, Pakistan kidnaps an India and show it as capture of one Indian spy to make India look aggressive.
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Protest all over country in India, media diverts the topic to captured Indian spy.
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And then back channel talks continue
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Ram madav speaks, how bravely Indian pilots shot down PAF aircrafts
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And once again we live happily ever after