IAF Chronicles - A side view of whats going on behind the closed doors in New Delhi

[suryakiran]

Let me make a prediction. This is not input based but analysis based. If were in the situation of French, what I will do to get maximum advantage from India for my business is as follows,

• Delay Kaveri V1 to ensure that LCA project continues to suffer delays resulting in more orders for Rafale.
• Delayed Kaveri V1 will also knock out Mig-35 from competition leaving only as an option for IAF & IN and also knock out the new RFI to be issued soon.
• Accelerate development of Kaveri V2 with least amount of conditions and make them fit for installation on Su-30MKI aircraft.
• The present engine of Su-30MKI has TBO of 1000 hrs and max life of 2000 hrs. Majority of Indian built Su-30MKIs will need engine change starting 2022-23.
• Each su-30MKI needs two engines and they will need at least four of these engines in their remaining life time.
• IAF has a fleet of 272 MKIs likely to increase to 315. which means nearly 1260 engines.
• AMCA too will need this engine starting 2022-23 and we can assume another 1200+ engines for AMCA.
• ATAR series engines were the largest number of engines produced by France till date, Kaveri V2 will leave those numbers behind by a huge margin.
• Kaveri V1 will not reach any kind of respectable thrust levels till Rafale MII is finalised and numbers reach over 126 as was the case in MMRCA.
• Delaying Kaveri V1 on some vague pretexts and accelerating Kaveri V1 using Indian money with joint IPR will result in unimaginable benefits for Safran.
• Further delays to LCA MK1 & 2 will result in more orders for Rafale which in turn will bring unimaginable benefits to DA.

We should link the successful integration of the Kaveri V1 with the Mk1A and Mk2 (if they are serious about his) before any more Rafale orders.

 

[vstol Jockey]

We should link the successful integration of the Kaveri V1 with the Mk1A and Mk2 (if they are serious about his) before any more Rafale orders.

Yes. No more talks on anything till they deliver on Kaveri engine.

 

[RedCannon]

Let me make a prediction. This is not input based but analysis based. If were in the situation of French, what I will do to get maximum advantage from India for my business is as follows,

• Delay Kaveri V1 to ensure that LCA project continues to suffer delays resulting in more orders for Rafale.
• Delayed Kaveri V1 will also knock out Mig-35 from competition leaving only as an option for IAF & IN and also knock out the new RFI to be issued soon.
• Accelerate development of Kaveri V2 with least amount of conditions and make them fit for installation on Su-30MKI aircraft.
• The present engine of Su-30MKI has TBO of 1000 hrs and max life of 2000 hrs. Majority of Indian built Su-30MKIs will need engine change starting 2022-23.
• Each su-30MKI needs two engines and they will need at least four of these engines in their remaining life time.
• IAF has a fleet of 272 MKIs likely to increase to 315. which means nearly 1260 engines.
• AMCA too will need this engine starting 2022-23 and we can assume another 1200+ engines for AMCA.
• ATAR series engines were the largest number of engines produced by France till date, Kaveri V2 will leave those numbers behind by a huge margin.
• Kaveri V1 will not reach any kind of respectable thrust levels till Rafale MII is finalised and numbers reach over 126 as was the case in MMRCA.
• Delaying Kaveri V1 on some vague pretexts and accelerating Kaveri V1 using Indian money with joint IPR will result in unimaginable benefits for Safran.
• Further delays to LCA MK1 & 2 will result in more orders for Rafale which in turn will bring unimaginable benefits to DA.

They are not giving IPR for KV1 so that mig35 is out of race. By the time kv2 is ready we would have started rafale mii navy would also have selected its planes so there wont be any case for mig 35.

Any delays in mk1a for this reason should be unacceptable. We should rather go ahead with ge404 for now and replace them later. We decoupled kaveri with tejas so that things don't get deleyed cant see them reverting that back.

 

[Aashish]

MK1A systems subsystems are open and not yet fixed (reduced from OEM preferences). Let HAL/ADA say in Mk1A which OEM is giving what system to MOD. the answer is they cant.. The reason being Mk1A subsystems which HAL recommended and has IAF onboard as well, that file is with MOD for last many months.

Anyway Mk1A needs to b frozen first or else delay beyond just engine will be more worrisome.

 

[vstol Jockey]

MK1A systems subsystems are open and not yet fixed (reduced from OEM preferences). Let HAL/ADA say in Mk1A which OEM is giving what system to MOD. the answer is they cant.. The reason being Mk1A subsystems which HAL recommended and has IAF onboard as well, that file is with MOD for last many months.

Anyway Mk1A needs to b frozen first or else delay beyond just engine will be more worrisome.

Let us not make it as complicated as who came first-egg or the chicken. Let France deliver on their promise first irrespective of what happens to LCA MK1A & 2. They promised 18 months to deliver the engine and let them do it first. They are delaying KV1 only to take out Migs from the equation.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Let us not make it as complicated as who came first-egg or the chicken. Let France deliver on their promise first irrespective of what happens to LCA MK1A & 2. They promised 18 months to deliver the engine and let them do it first. They are delaying KV1 only to take out Migs from the equation.

They can keep delaying because our needs in terms of squadron strength is
more urgent

Every body knows that 36 Rafales will not be sufficient and the Indian Government
is in no position to buy a half baked PAK FA

So what is left is Su 30 alone

LCA mk2 is far away

 

[Desi Lover]

lets go play some strategic computer game instead

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

If you look at the development cost of F-35, I doubt European countries are in a position to afford such expenses. Anyway most European countries have already committed to buy F-35.

Just avoid the mess of the US aeronautical microcosm for, typically, reducing costs in a 3 ratio!

 

[randomradio]

What if Nobody is interested in parting away with their technologies

Is Dassault interested in a Fifth Generation or stealthy Rafale

Why will LM and SAAB oblige with our demands

Even Russia is not agreeing to our Conditions in PAK FA negotiations

Where does that leave the IAF ; Keep making Su 30s for ever

France and Sweden are fine with this. Sweden no longer has a market, so they want to make India their main market, kinda like what BAE is doing in the US. And France wants to sell Rafale and develop new Rafale technologies with India.

What we are asking from Russia is even more significant.

 

[randomradio]

So Rafale F 4 will involve some Airframe changes also

By the way is Dassault planning a Rafale NG ie Stealthy Rafale

If we have to invest 6 Billion in PAK FA /FGFA ; why not invest the same amount in A Stealthy Rafale

A stealthy Rafale will be useless for us. The Rafale's only drawback today is the lack of an IWB. We need the IWB for strike missions where aircraft can go supersonic and drop bombs at high speeds. The aircraft won't have to drop its load when it's intercepted either.

 

[randomradio]

Any timeline on when this tender will reach to a conclusion and IAF starts adding anything significant to its inventory?

Start of RFI to first delivery is 8 years. Normally it should take 10 years.

But the IAF has the option for asking a direct GTG deal instead. Then, the wait time could cut down by half.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

France and Sweden are fine with this. Sweden no longer has a market, so they want to make India their main market, kinda like what BAE is doing in the US. And France wants to sell Rafale and develop new Rafale technologies with India.

What we are asking from Russia is even more significant.

Frankly ; I don't understand WHO will agree to our demands and Why

Money is not an issue for European countries

Even Russia does not give its Best and Latest technology to others

 

[Sathya]

I don't think they would delay it for for LCA , F16 will be given chance otherwise.
Also trust of India cannot be strained .
However by having IPR rights , they can deny or postpone it for mig35 .

IN fighter procurement might be delayed..
Isn't it the best chance for MSA too ?

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Start of RFI to first delivery is 8 years. Normally it should take 10 years.

So till that time we will neither get Additional Rafales or PAK FA

 

[randomradio]

That is the real Question which has not been answered

That is whether European Manufacturers are really interested in Fifth Generation or not

France and Germany Plan New 5th Generation Fighter, is it an Opportunity for India? – Indian Defence Research Wing

So can India join this project

From initial estimates, it appears they are looking at a strike aircraft to replace the Tornado. IAF won't be interested in this.

Dassault is ultimately planning a much more futuristic aircraft to replace the Rafale. It will be far more capable than the FGFA. But it's so far in the future that we may as well be following through with our own project for this.

 

[randomradio]

If you look at the development cost of F-35, I doubt European countries are in a position to afford such expenses. Anyway most European countries have already committed to buy F-35.

I am not sure Germany and France can commit enough numbers to make the project commercially viable. They are finding it difficult to order enough Typhoons and Rafales. Plus there is no compelling reasons for them to increase their sqdn strengths as well. There is no imminent threat looming over them.

India can be the solution to both the problems. If jointly developed with France and/or Germany, significant amount of development work can be outsourced to India and that will reduce development costs. By the time this aircraft is ready for induction, India will be a 10 trillion $ economy and will require at least 200-300 jets to replace M-2000, Mig-29 and Jaguars and that kind of number will bring down per jet cost.

All said and done, who can fix our Babus? If Modi comes back to power in 2019, then we might see some concrete steps. Otherwise it will be the same old story!!

France and Germany have as much money as the US. They can afford anything the US can.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

From initial estimates, it appears they are looking at a strike aircraft to replace the Tornado. IAF won't be interested in this.

Dassault is ultimately planning a much more futuristic aircraft to replace the Rafale. It will be far more capable than the FGFA. But it's so far in the future that we may as well be following through with our own project for this.

I think that this Tender is just for Show

We will keep Negotiating with BOTH France and Russia

And then Abruptly cancel this tender without any assigning any reason

 

[randomradio]

Let me make a prediction. This is not input based but analysis based. If were in the situation of French, what I will do to get maximum advantage from India for my business is as follows,

• Delay Kaveri V1 to ensure that LCA project continues to suffer delays resulting in more orders for Rafale.
• Delayed Kaveri V1 will also knock out Mig-35 from competition leaving only as an option for IAF & IN and also knock out the new RFI to be issued soon.
• Accelerate development of Kaveri V2 with least amount of conditions and make them fit for installation on Su-30MKI aircraft.
• The present engine of Su-30MKI has TBO of 1000 hrs and max life of 2000 hrs. Majority of Indian built Su-30MKIs will need engine change starting 2022-23.
• Each su-30MKI needs two engines and they will need at least four of these engines in their remaining life time.
• IAF has a fleet of 272 MKIs likely to increase to 315. which means nearly 1260 engines.
• AMCA too will need this engine starting 2022-23 and we can assume another 1200+ engines for AMCA.
• ATAR series engines were the largest number of engines produced by France till date, Kaveri V2 will leave those numbers behind by a huge margin.
• Kaveri V1 will not reach any kind of respectable thrust levels till Rafale MII is finalised and numbers reach over 126 as was the case in MMRCA.
• Delaying Kaveri V1 on some vague pretexts and accelerating Kaveri V1 using Indian money with joint IPR will result in unimaginable benefits for Safran.
• Further delays to LCA MK1 & 2 will result in more orders for Rafale which in turn will bring unimaginable benefits to DA.

HAL won't allow anymore LCA delays. If Kaveri V1 is delayed, they will choose F404. IAF is fine with the engine anyway.

MKI will be getting the new 117S engine that's on the Su-35. It will have 145KN of thrust and 4000 hours TTL.

Delaying the Kaveri program will in fact spoil Rafale's chances of being equipped with the Kaveri.

The bigger fear is France can actually delay AMCA if they are expected to help out with the avionics. That would ensure more Rafale orders for the Rafale NG.

 

[randomradio]

Spain has a better TVC tech available for EJ-200. The same tech can be used by Safran for KV2.
Safran started the work on KV1 in Jan 2017 with a promise to deliver the complete engine within 18 months. We are now in 15th month and there is no KV1 as of now. I will be writing to DM what I posted here and request her to ensure that French are told in very clear language to first deliver on their promises without conditions or forget about more Rafale orders.

Russia will be our partner for TVC. Klimov will help GTRE develop TVC for the Kaveri.

 

[randomradio]

Frankly ; I don't understand WHO will agree to our demands and Why

Money is not an issue for European countries

Even Russia does not give its Best and Latest technology to others

I have zero hopes from the Americans. The Russians are fine, their efforts will come through FGFA, not MMRCA. The Swedes and French are being offered more numbers than their own respective air forces, so they won't mind a lot.