also - whioel would USA share high tech with India?
because only India would be willing to stand up to China
this is similar to why USA shares so much tech with NATO - to ocunter Russia (it wont be able to do it on its own alone)
IAF Chronicles - A side view of whats going on behind the closed doors in New Delhi
- Thread starter Aashish
- Start date
- Status
because only India would be willing to stand up to China
this is similar to why USA shares so much tech with NATO - to ocunter Russia (it wont be able to do it on its own alone)
All those are peacetime problems. If threats increase, they will decrease spending elsewhere and the population will accept the hit due to security needs. You forget that the European populations are actually educated and understand security needs very well.
The security environment always justifies spending. Right now, they don't have the need for it. But in 10 years time they will have the need for it. During the Cold War, the Europeans had some of the largest armed forces around.
Yes. It takes that long to absorb new technologies. As for French tech that's going into the first Kaveri in 18 months, that's fairly limited. They are fixing our own technology.
The FGFA deal will have zero offsets.
J20 seemed under powered. What about its agility? about its stealth (first real attempt in china)? about its indigenous radar?
Su57 is tailored for agility (as all the recent SU products), is (or will be) better powered, and the skill of russian aero engineer is for me a better assurance about stealth and radar technology.
The J-20 very likely has similar thrust engines as the current Su-57. Even they are developing a new engine with greater thrust.
Who told you first that Russians are willing to offer Mig-35 with KV1? I did that. Pls don't mistrust my info.
Aashish,
1st, elaborate the highlighted part plz!!!
2nd, why Indian flirtation with Americans for F-16 and F-35 did not worked out??? Due to MII/ToT or there are any other considerations i.e. we still think US is unreliable!!!
3rd, If remember correctly the Mig-29Ks were touted as very good jet with excellent radar and one of the best thing happened to Indian defense aviation after MKIs. But now as the fog is clearing, it looks/sounds like it was a disaster!!! Why or what happened or changed???
4th, Is India considering to wind up its Su-57 participation???
Thanks in advance!!!!!
Last edited:
No, there wont be enough money left for FGFA apart from the 0 interest IAF already has due to its stealth and other performance.
We are talking about Su-57's Type 30. The deal has no offsets, so tech cannot go to GTRE. The engine tech will go to HAL and it will only be manufacturing tech.
The expenditure on FGFA will be based on priority. The aircraft itself will be inducted well after 2025.
-So we can either choose to pay now for the R&D of an Indian specific version called FGFA. And then pay for a production deal all the way after 2025.
-Or we can go for a smaller number of MKIzed PAK FA and pay for it after 2025.
So one of those are bound to happen. We will be able to afford FGFA or MKIzed PAK FA after 2025. What's in question now is whether we have the money to pay for the FGFA's R&D today.
Nope, we dont have money right now and probably not in future.
I dont think we can go for 4 different planes in next 15-20years. We just dont have enough money and we cant be sure how our economic growth will be in future.
LCA mk1A & mk2, Amca, rafale/others, career jets, pakfa.. Just not possible. Govt has assured development of LcA & amca. at max we can have 1 more jet for IAF and one for Navy. nothing more.
Before Macron came, there were discussions like we'll buy 200+ rafales, another single engine jet in 100+ + PAKfa, Kaveri engine is done and dusted etc etc. But the ground based reality is Kaveri is not yet ready, probably not even worked on, Discussion on for only 36 more rafales, which may not happen, no talks about other fighter jets & pakfa in limbo.
Imagination and wishes are not helping our defense here.. Better just wait and see what is finalised and signed. I'm sure no one here can do anything to change the govt's decisions. There must be a lot of things going on, lot of weaknesses on out part that we dont know.
Our education style and attitude towaRds research has to change now so that we can see some results after 30 years.
Our financial condition does not match our requirements, but here you are dismissing the requirements themselves.
Anyway, we do have the money for all the stuff we need, but all the stuff will only be acquired after a delay because the spending priority is low.
For example, the MMRCA deal was set to be signed in 2015 and the program for all 189 jets was set to end in 2025. There was enough money for this project, but the govt's spending priority changed. So what was earmarked for defence went into pensions and civilian spending instead, otherwise even a little more than nominal growth would have given the IAF their Rafales long ago. FGFA was supposed to begin by 2023 or so, meaning just in time for the Rafale program to finish and FGFA to start. AMCA was to begin 10 years after FGFA, so 2035.
Now, our economy is reaching a stage where we will be adding hundreds of billions to the GDP every year. The extremely high tax growth shows that the govt is getting considerably richer every year. And our defence industry has demonstrated enough maturity that we can get most of the stuff through Indian developed systems over the course of the next 10 years. That means our revenue and capital expenditure will be less stressed because stuff's gonna get cheaper.
It's only after all this is over that FGFA will start coming in in large numbers.
Using average growth of 10%, our defence budget would triple in 10 years. The military requires 12% growth every year, we are averaging at 9% right now, but aiming for 14+% growth. Even if a single FGFA costs $250M flyaway, we would be spending about $4B ever year. That's an impossible to achieve cost today, but between 2025 and 2035, that would be less than 30% of the IAF's capital budget.
So it is most definitely affordable. You should not be looking at our current financial condition, you should be looking at 5-10 years hence because that's when the contracts we want today will actually fructify.
Aerospace programs take decades to bear fruit. Whatever we are doing today will determine the course of the air force and the country itself for the next 30 years. So the delays you are witnessing right now aren't considerably significant in the long haul. What we know today is we are headed in the direction we want to.
what you said is correct But then there are also many uncertainties. We dont know how our growth is going to be in future, global inflation, political scenario etc.
No one will give full tot with know why for sure. India will have to make its on products. Education system has to change from reproducing information to using information in real life. That is how we'll have innovation and inventions which will ultimately help in defence production. Right now the way our education system is, you dont know what to do with the knowledge you have got from school or college till class 12. And even in higher studies - bachelors, masters etc, the focus is on reproducing info and not in using the info to come out with something new. This is the difference I found when I came to new zealand. Education sys is way ahead of India and focus is on innovation, not getting higher grades and a good job.
The ones who are capable of producing something new are resourceful from a very young age. The ones who are incapable benefit more from rote learning, and the majority of the population is incapable. But the ones who are resourceful do not have the resources necessary because the country is still very poor.
The problem with us is we are unable to retain in India those who are capable, and the defence industry is even worse. Hopefully, the private foray into defence will change that.
No one is expecting full ToT. The requirement is 50%.
Point 1 - Pure business - If India does nt participate or buy into PAKFA program (or FGFA), China will be offered the jet for quick revenues (like Su35). China will grab that opportunity to buy couple of squad to look into the plane , systems and engines in details as its still targeting its homegrown technology to come up with better versions.
The challenge also lies that few more countries may access that plane in case China sponsors them to buy and indirectly accesses such planes and data.
That's why it was made clear that any point of time, such new threats have to be dealt with and aircraft of present choice Rafale F4 should be capable of dealing with it.
Point 2
The challenge of US deal is there seems to be a binding in acccess and usage.
First there is a list of legacy systems and weapons under F16 program (with final numbers quoted) which is given as a stepping stone for India to access more advanced system (F35 sub systems and finally F35).
Second the commitment of F35 is not "priority based or guaranteed" implying if lines are full India will have to wait and later administrations or Senate can go back on this promise.,
Third, there is a global monitoring system advocated for all missions so that they strictly comply to usage and ensure no deviation. That is like tapping into mission data and limiting to conventional roles.
Fourthly all Indian companies will have to have certain JV with US holding 74% in order to meet IPR issues implying the industry gets minimal things in reality.
All these points have been vociferously pointed by IAF for long but the government was keen to get LM here in India under the flagship make in India program. Over time PMO left final decision on DM NS hands and so also IAF who clearly said they are ok for G2G deal with USA as long as they get Rafales in the numbers of choice as they need it for countering all these (and many more) US restrictions.
DM NS was checkmated by all sides bcz she favouring LM (as she knows LM folks closely with Mr V Lal being close to many such politicians across different parties)would end her political career. PMO was smart enough to make it look its IAFa nd MOD recommending it and its not PMO pushing the bait for India US relationship. So DM NS was dragging the file and now under the garb of SE jet tender converted to more all SE/TE participation, she is buying time to let F-16 MII die naturally.
Mind you, LM has still not given up and will continue to try harder by relentlessly badmouthing France/Rafale and showcasing HAL LCA issues in ordeer to build a story that LM is a better option and are ready anytime.
Point 3
Mig29K are good birds but with certain limitations. The marine version has engine issues and parts problem. on top the performance limitation to the likes of advanced birds with AESA, EW, payload is quite visible. The CAG reports cover few points of issue. Primary being all Russian planes has supply parts issues due to Russia charging enormous amounts and taking time. Second, there is no performance guarantee for availability. Most iof the times issues are blamed with Indian counterpart and replacement is just add on cost. Due to lack of planning and never forecasting the arm-twisting measures, the plane utility is limited. It might get improved but with time and changing technology around the globe, its good against Pakistan only. For an IOR perspective, its not suitable at all.
4th point
India had kept the Su57 file frozen for good time now owing to lack of clarity and cooperation by Russian side. With MKI and 29K experience, and with legal binders from Rafale deals- MOD and IAF wants things extensively in clear manner. Unfortunately Russia wants opacity with a more "trust" based relationship that they stood with India always. Business has changed and people want after sales support ina big way.
Second, India wanted Russia to explore Su57 with HAL and a Indian Pvt sector company (not yet named publically) in order to ensure maximum tech absorption is in private sector and support HAL ecosystem. In a way Russia was against this idea. For them grandfathering HAL bcz they can control HAL line of working (based on erstwhile soviet ways) . This was a big red flag in MOD circles. Pvt sector in India is now slowly becoming more compliant globally and technology absorption and IPR management is far better there as compared to a behemoth like HAL (which needs to be broken down to multiple new units). Yet Russia wanting only HAL in spite of knowing such a case overburdens HAL significantly, further strained the things.
Even now when Su57 news is idle, HAL is again on behest of Russia moving pillar to posts for Mig35 under the garb that after MKI lines will be idle. Then the funds required kept on changing and now FGFA is an estimated $30 Bn acquisition for 100 odd planes and development charges as well are there. Russia wants India to commit and start paying when India has not even tested the bird till date. all based on "trust". India's queries are never replied at all. On top all deals gets interlinked and blackmailed saying for X deal, buy this only and if Inda politely refuses, everything is slowed down. The attitude to arm twist and money grabbing has hurt Russians. They are good folks but it might have worked earlier but now government and people have changed., so also their ways.
Russia did come out with some interesting things like if Su57 is not happening, they wanted AMCA with Russian engines and based on a Mig design to make it a Mach2.5 high-speed interceptor. A different role bird then what India envisions so again that did nt move much ahead. Then came a suborbital interceptor concept which India did see a potential but felt its too early.
Unfortunately, in all these cases including Su57, the main motive is - pay now as we need funds to develop and "trust" us that we will deliver a high-quality product. India learns nothing, gets nothing and after even getting few things- have no technical back up to use those IPR as they were kept outside the process from the beginning. Essentially it's an off the shelf under the garb of joint development but we pay for joint development.
So unless there is a significant change, Su57 plan will remain frozen till Russia opens up fully. But still a 60 odd numbers may be procured later in and around 2025 time when Su57 is fully matured just to keep adversaries in toe that even we have access to this plane and tech to know pros and cons.
@Desi Lover nice to see someone here who inhabits the real world. I've seen some progress with @randomradio (especially from the LSA days) but he has a long and treacherous path ahead.
Some interesting facts about rafale deal offsets by Shiv Arur.
https://www.livefistdefence.com/201...of-frances-e4-billion-india-offsets-plan.html
https://www.livefistdefence.com/201...of-frances-e4-billion-india-offsets-plan.html
So no signature on Safran Kaveri during Macron visit. Not part of offsets as earlier claimed by reputed 'sources' and as per Saurav Jha the work has stopped anyway.
- Status