Multi-Role Carrier Borne Fighter For The Indian Navy - Updates & Discussions

[Picdelamirand-oil]

What you're saying in effect will delay the program & push it to probably the mid 2040s , for apart from the technological barrier to be surmounted there's the budget to consider too which , in today's times is ,for lack of a better word , unpredictable .

I think that this will save us time:
The SCAF programme is currently planning to enter into service by 2040 at the latest, i.e. in 17 years.
The failure of the cooperation will be confirmed in 2 years at the end of phase 1B, i.e. 2025, so theoretically there will be 15 years of development left, but as Dassault will go twice as fast, it will be finished in 8 years, which takes us to 2033.

And as far as budgets are concerned, we have just added 100 billion Euros to the military budget for the period up to 2030, i.e. 1/3 more, and Dassault has shown with the Rafale programme that it knew how to develop a complete programme with the share that France would have had to devote to the Typhoon if it had remained in this programme.

 

[lcafanboy]

I have already discussed this with randomradio, and the conclusion was that a co-development of India and France would cost India too much.

How would it cost India too much when the work or R&D done in India will be paid in rupees and salaries in India are far too lower than France or any European countries. Fact is if France brings in all the R&D centres to India transfer 75 % work to India it will actually bring down the cost of R&D down for both the countries and add economy of scale with requirements for both country's defence forces, it should actually lower the costs for FCAS and other weapons systems to both the countries.

If not then there's a problem with French R&D costs which seems too High...

 

[_Anonymous_]

How would it cost India too much when the work or R&D done in India will be paid in rupees and salaries in India are far too lower than France or any European countries. Fact is if France brings in all the R&D centres to India transfer 75 % work to India it will actually bring down the cost of R&D down for both the countries and add economy of scale with requirements for both country's defence forces, it should actually lower the costs for FCAS and other weapons systems to both the countries.

If not then there's a problem with French R&D costs which seems too High...

Corporate Greed + Domestic Politics + Nationalism + General Security related issues regarding IPR etc.

Though having said that I imagine with the economy of Europe facing uncertainty they'd have little choice but to gradually off shore core R&D as well as significant mfg operations too.

While this was already being implemented in a low key manner to be graduated as per time for the lower end of R&D & mfg, they'd be accelerated soon to include high end solutions too. I don't think they've a choice in this matter although it may not seem so today.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Corporate Greed + Domestic Politics + Nationalism + General Security related issues regarding IPR etc.

Though having said that I imagine with the economy of Europe facing uncertainty they'd have little choice but to gradually off shore core R&D as well as significant mfg operations too.

While this was already being implemented in a low key manner to be graduated as per time for the lower end of R&D & mfg, they'd be accelerated soon to include high end solutions too. I don't think they've a choice in this matter although it may not seem so today.

You are very wrong about France and Europe: for example, the COVID health crisis and the war in Ukraine hardly affected the economy, which recovered quickly; similarly, the alarmist predictions of energy shortages in Europe have been belied, with electricity production satisfactory and gas stocks at an all-time high for the period (over 80% of the maximum).
As for labour costs, they are about 8 times higher than in India, but the hourly productivity of the worker is also 8 times higher.
The idea of offshoring is therefore to import European working methods into India, in order to increase productivity to a comparable level, without increasing wages to the same extent. This is what HAL had refused, wanting to keep its own working methods.

 

[_Anonymous_]

You are very wrong about France and Europe: for example, the COVID health crisis and the war in Ukraine hardly affected the economy, which recovered quickly; similarly, the alarmist predictions of energy shortages in Europe have been belied, with electricity production satisfactory and gas stocks at an all-time high for the period (over 80% of the maximum).

In any case it was clear around September last yr itself that Europe had stocked enough to cater to its winter . It was the winter of 2023 & beyond which needed mitigation. Let's see how things unfold . Neither am I optimistic nor pessimistic about Europe's economy.

As for labour costs, they are about 8 times higher than in India, but the hourly productivity of the worker is also 8 times higher.

It's purely due to the levels of automation .

The idea of offshoring is therefore to import European working methods into India, in order to increase productivity to a comparable level, without increasing wages to the same extent.

This is what HAL had refused, wanting to keep its own working methods.

I doubt HAL has the autonomy to go in for unilateral automation all of a sudden for the Rafale project. The unions here wouldn't permit it & both the then government & present day one lack the spine to stand upto the unions. If HAL ever proposed to implement it , it'd be shot down by the Union Government . If it goes ahead without consulting the Union Government the CMD HAL will be replaced.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

In any case it was clear around September last yr itself that Europe had stocked enough to cater to its winter . It was the winter of 2023 & beyond which needed mitigation. Let's see how things unfold . Neither am I optimistic nor pessimistic about Europe's economy.

It's purely due to the levels of automation .

I doubt HAL has the autonomy to go in for unilateral automation all of a sudden for the Rafale project. The unions here wouldn't permit it & both the then government & present day one lack the spine to stand upto the unions. If HAL ever proposed to implement it , it'd be shot down by the Union Government . If it goes ahead without consulting the Union Government the CMD HAL will be replaced.

That's why it can only happen at Dassault Reliance Aerospace Limited.

 

[_Anonymous_]

That's why it can only happen at Dassault Reliance Aerospace Limited.

What if I told you that it could perhaps become Dassault HAL Aerospace Ltd?

 

[Ashwin]

That's why it can only happen at Dassault Reliance Aerospace Limited.

You better get new partners. That name itself comes with baggage.

Be smart like Airbus and their C295 production line.

 

[D68]

Nothing new in this really, but still a nice interview with a Rafale-M pilot.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

In any case it was clear around September last yr itself that Europe had stocked enough to cater to its winter . It was the winter of 2023 & beyond which needed mitigation. Let's see how things unfold . Neither am I optimistic nor pessimistic about Europe's economy.

In September last year it was clear that France would have enough gas to get through the winter because we were only dependent on Russian gas for 16% of our gas consumption. But Germany was 55% dependent on Russian gas and if its reserves were full it would not be enough to get through the winter and they were worried about February.

But Germany was able to increase its imports from Norway and the Netherlands for 20% of its needs, it built a gasification terminal which came into operation in January and it will have another one in 6 months. These terminals allow the import of liquefied gas by LNG tanker.

For its part, France, which had four terminals, was able to use them 100%, which doubled its imports of liquefied gas and enabled it to export the surplus to Germany. In these conditions there is no more worry for this year for gas and even we will finish the winter with very high stocks which will be very easy to complete for the autumn.

In the longer term, the construction of a gas pipeline between Barcelona and Marseille is planned to allow the European Union to have access to gas. Spain has 6 gasification terminals and a connection to Africa and will be able to supply the whole of Europe with gas, using the French network.

In terms of electricity production, it was France that had a problem due to the combination of two negative events:

1. our power plants were catching up on the maintenance backlog that had accumulated due to the COVID crisis, which had put non-essential activities into partial shutdown.
2. In-depth examinations of the state of a nuclear power plant showed through radiographic tests that safety devices had cracks, as a precautionary measure all the plants were tested and the result was that all the plants under ordinary maintenance plus those with cracks represented 50% of our nuclear power plants.

This situation is bearable in summer, but not in winter.

Yet this winter we had no problems with power shortages:

1. A large number of power plants were put back into operation (up to 32 were shut down and less than 10 are still shut down today)
2. We managed the midday peak by stopping the electric water heaters thanks to smart meters in the Paris region (this is a measure that corresponds to the production of 6 nuclear power plants)
3. We have gone from being a net exporter of electricity to a slight importer

 

[_Anonymous_]

In September last year it was clear that France would have enough gas to get through the winter because we were only dependent on Russian gas for 16% of our gas consumption. But Germany was 55% dependent on Russian gas and if its reserves were full it would not be enough to get through the winter and they were worried about February.

But Germany was able to increase its imports from Norway and the Netherlands for 20% of its needs, it built a gasification terminal which came into operation in January and it will have another one in 6 months. These terminals allow the import of liquefied gas by LNG tanker.

For its part, France, which had four terminals, was able to use them 100%, which doubled its imports of liquefied gas and enabled it to export the surplus to Germany. In these conditions there is no more worry for this year for gas and even we will finish the winter with very high stocks which will be very easy to complete for the autumn.

In the longer term, the construction of a gas pipeline between Barcelona and Marseille is planned to allow the European Union to have access to gas. Spain has 6 gasification terminals and a connection to Africa and will be able to supply the whole of Europe with gas, using the French network.

In terms of electricity production, it was France that had a problem due to the combination of two negative events:

1. our power plants were catching up on the maintenance backlog that had accumulated due to the COVID crisis, which had put non-essential activities into partial shutdown.
2. In-depth examinations of the state of a nuclear power plant showed through radiographic tests that safety devices had cracks, as a precautionary measure all the plants were tested and the result was that all the plants under ordinary maintenance plus those with cracks represented 50% of our nuclear power plants.

This situation is bearable in summer, but not in winter.

Yet this winter we had no problems with power shortages:

1. A large number of power plants were put back into operation (up to 32 were shut down and less than 10 are still shut down today)
2. We managed the midday peak by stopping the electric water heaters thanks to smart meters in the Paris region (this is a measure that corresponds to the production of 6 nuclear power plants)
3. We have gone from being a net exporter of electricity to a slight importer

I don't think France was in any danger of an energy shortage or if anybody saw France being energy deficit since you draw a large amount of it from your N power plants. Any deficit due to disrupted supplies courtesy the war would be marginal in terms of costs.

However France is dependent on the Sahel for a good amount of Uranium , O & G supplies where it seems to be ceding ground to the Islamists there besides Russia meddling in thru their proxy Wagner . Your frontline state Chad has lost it's long time leader Idris Deby who was your prime enforcer & ally in the Sahel . His successor & son is an unknown qty.

The line from Africa to Europe passing thru Spain France etc is highly ambitious . However regional rivalries between Algeria & Morocco needs to be taken into account. I'm not sure which among these two nations are pumping gas into Barcelona .

The original plan was to tap oil & gas all the way from Nigeria & have a pipeline either hugging the coast or passing overland into Morocco with the latter deemed too risky given the various civil strifes unfolding in the region. Hence this plan is an old one as I recall reading about it a few yrs ago. I've no clue how far things have progressed except to say that even that article I read more than 3 yrs ago suggested a T/L of 10-15 yrs for the entire pipeline to be built to achieve it's full potential .

Your post states that it'd come online shortly . I haven't followed up on that article , hence my knowledge is negligible on what's the latest as far as the status of this particular pipeline is .

If what you state is true then Europe has already found a replacement for it's dependence on Russia. All you've to do is take the pipeline forward & build up gas storage & pumping facilities .

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

I don't think France was in any danger of an energy shortage or if anybody saw France being energy deficit since you draw a large amount of it from your N power plants. Any deficit due to disrupted supplies courtesy the war would be marginal in terms of costs.

However France is dependent on the Sahel for a good amount of Uranium , O & G supplies where it seems to be ceding ground to the Islamists there besides Russia meddling in thru their proxy Wagner . Your frontline state Chad has lost it's long time leader Idris Deby who was your prime enforcer & ally in the Sahel . His successor & son is an unknown qty.

Uranium is not like coal and oil, it is easy to store.

France's uranium supply is provided in part by AREVA which, unlike its competitors, is located in major production areas, Niger, Canada and Kazakhstan. Its diversified portfolio provides France with reserves corresponding to 28 years of consumption of the current nuclear fleet.

To prevent uncertainties (shortages, rising metal costs, etc.), EDF, in agreement with the State, is diversifying its uranium suppliers by limiting AREVA's share of its supply to 40%. In addition, the operator holds strategic stocks on French territory corresponding to 3 to 5 years of consumption.

 

[randomradio]

If yes, why it didn't invite India for co development of FCAS instead of Germany...

Germany budgeted €40 billion for the R&D of FCAS, until 2040. If MoD asks for that much money for one project, the MoF will laugh them out of North Block. Our AMCA budget is $5B, with engine.

France's national budget is around $1.5T, Germany's is around $2T, India's is around $500B. We are still 10 years away from spending like them.

 

[randomradio]

I have already discussed this with randomradio, and the conclusion was that a co-development of India and France would cost India too much.

Based on these discussions I developed an approach that I thought would work for such cooperation and submitted it to the President of the French Republic.

The President's office passed the file to the Minister of Foreign Affairs and informed me that if there was a follow-up the Minister would inform me directly. I don't think that France will be able to follow up on this file as long as the failure of the cooperation with Germany is not officially recorded.

Around mid-2030s, if France is planning on developing hypersonic aircraft, I believe that would be more interesting for a JV. And by then, India's aerospace industry will be mature enough for equal partnership in many areas.

 

[Hydra]

Around mid-2030s, if France is planning on developing hypersonic aircraft, I believe that would be more interesting for a JV. And by then, India's aerospace industry will be mature enough for equal partnership in many areas.

What is the basis of your thinking that by mi2030 our aerospace will be mature? Till now we didn't develop any meaningful aircrafts apart from few training aircraft or train aircraft like light aircraft.

 

[randomradio]

What is the basis of your thinking that by mi2030 our aerospace will be mature? Till now we didn't develop any meaningful aircrafts apart from few training aircraft or train aircraft like light aircraft.

'Cause 10 years prior to that we will have AMCA and TEDBF flying. That's more than enough.

 

[TARGET]

What is the basis of your thinking that by mi2030 our aerospace will be mature? Till now we didn't develop any meaningful aircrafts apart from few training aircraft or train aircraft like light aircraft.

I agree, I don't see any future defense acquisition or development specifically in the AIR and SEA domains. I see a clueless defense minister who lacks knowledge and is more dependent on the secretary, or BABUS. You see, there is a big difference if you compare him with Mr. Nitin Gadkari and Ashwini Vaishnaw, and because of this, everything moves so slowly. The minister should have his own knowledge of his department, and I see Rajnath Singh doesn't have this capability. You need to have a little bit of technological and business management understanding.

 

[Hydra]

'Cause 10 years prior to that we will have AMCA and TEDBF flying. That's more than enough.

No ot will not. Does TEDBF had srcured any permission to go ahead?

I agree, I don't see any future defense acquisition or development specifically in the AIR and SEA domains. I see a clueless defense minister who lacks knowledge and is more dependent on the secretary, or BABUS. You see, there is a big difference if you compare him with Mr. Nitin Gadkari and Ashwini Vaishnaw, and because of this, everything moves so slowly. The minister should have his own knowledge of his department, and I see Rajnath Singh doesn't have this capability. You need to have a little bit of technological and business management understanding.

We have illiterate guys as our ministers, its bound to fail.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619665229797003264

 

[Bon Plan]

In any case it was clear around September last yr itself that Europe had stocked enough to cater to its winter . It was the winter of 2023 & beyond which needed mitigation. Let's see how things unfold . Neither am I optimistic nor pessimistic about Europe's economy.

For Gas the worst is to come : winter 2023-2024.
And fortunately our winter is not too cold. As for now.