Rafale DH/EH of Indian Air Force : News and Discussions
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In fact I don't really understand the Indians and how they never make up their minds.
I can for example give what I would decide if I were in India's place, I will do it according to my convictions, but I would understand very well that the decision-maker has other convictions based on information that I don't have and strategic wills that are specific to India.
From my point of view, India faces two dangerous neighbours and must strengthen its military capabilities as quickly as possible so as not to risk a tragedy in the event of an attack.
Part of this reinforcement concerns the air force, since the number of squadrons desirable is 42, and it is more in the order of 30, with further withdrawals planned in the short term.
Under these conditions I think it would be desirable to deploy a minimum of 200 Rafales, as quickly as possible, including the IAF and the IN. As an order for 36 Rafale is currently in progress, this means that 107 Rafale would be needed for the IAF, and 57 Rafale for the IN.
For the deployment to be as rapid as possible it would be necessary to produce 1 Rafale per me in France and 3 Rafale per me in India, which would take 41 months, starting in 36 months time, i.e. 77 months in all.
In 2027 India would have its 200 Rafales and it could use this time to think on the approach to further consolidate its air force, taking into account the withdrawals that will take place by then, the LCAs produced and their pace, and the prospects of the AMCA. The objective should be to take new decisions in 2024.
Then the financing remains to be considered: first the purchase price has to be evaluated. In addition to equipping 3 or 4 new bases, some armaments will have to be purchased, but there will be no need to pay for ISEs again, and production in India should reduce the recurrent cost of the aircraft by 20 to 30%. All these elements together mean that the contract price can be estimated at €20 billion.
There is another paradox in India, which is that you don't want to make loans for the equipment of your armies. Yet you agree to rent. That is to say that you do not agree to pay back in 20 years equipment that will last 30 or 40 years but you agree to pay the price of equipment as it is used.
For this purchase of 164 Rafale I would make a loan over 20 years which would make a repayment of slightly more than 1 billion per year, which is quite bearable.
I can for example give what I would decide if I were in India's place, I will do it according to my convictions, but I would understand very well that the decision-maker has other convictions based on information that I don't have and strategic wills that are specific to India.
From my point of view, India faces two dangerous neighbours and must strengthen its military capabilities as quickly as possible so as not to risk a tragedy in the event of an attack.
Part of this reinforcement concerns the air force, since the number of squadrons desirable is 42, and it is more in the order of 30, with further withdrawals planned in the short term.
Under these conditions I think it would be desirable to deploy a minimum of 200 Rafales, as quickly as possible, including the IAF and the IN. As an order for 36 Rafale is currently in progress, this means that 107 Rafale would be needed for the IAF, and 57 Rafale for the IN.
For the deployment to be as rapid as possible it would be necessary to produce 1 Rafale per me in France and 3 Rafale per me in India, which would take 41 months, starting in 36 months time, i.e. 77 months in all.
In 2027 India would have its 200 Rafales and it could use this time to think on the approach to further consolidate its air force, taking into account the withdrawals that will take place by then, the LCAs produced and their pace, and the prospects of the AMCA. The objective should be to take new decisions in 2024.
Then the financing remains to be considered: first the purchase price has to be evaluated. In addition to equipping 3 or 4 new bases, some armaments will have to be purchased, but there will be no need to pay for ISEs again, and production in India should reduce the recurrent cost of the aircraft by 20 to 30%. All these elements together mean that the contract price can be estimated at €20 billion.
There is another paradox in India, which is that you don't want to make loans for the equipment of your armies. Yet you agree to rent. That is to say that you do not agree to pay back in 20 years equipment that will last 30 or 40 years but you agree to pay the price of equipment as it is used.
For this purchase of 164 Rafale I would make a loan over 20 years which would make a repayment of slightly more than 1 billion per year, which is quite bearable.
More the people, more different the views on each matter and sometimes that leads to more bottlenecks.
You need to have a decision-maker:
Everyone who has reason to have a point of view presents that point of view to him, and the decision-maker takes it into account in making his decision.
But you have a body that makes a decision while another body makes the opposite decision or tries to prevent the decision from being implemented.
That's not the only problem. There are numerous problems. And as solving them won't yield results within 5 years , it's not even attractive to the politically elected chair to even put in an effort to rectify things. As he will not be able to reap the benefits of that effort in all likelihood.
This attitude then gets multiplied manifolds as we go down the triangle.
Indian defense budget allocation for Capex is around $15 billion. Maybe more. But based on what our needs are, we need to buy weapons and platforms worth $170 - $200 billions in the next 4-5 years. Funds are just one of our many problems. In many cases, our Armed forces write their requirement that there are no such technologies available yet or it leads to a Single vendor situation or it is so expensive that we can't afford it or there are Indian solutions available but which are not mature yet. Needless to say, the delays in Contract negotiation and delays related to moving files in the MOD. If we look at the laundry list of equipment that we need now & in the next 5-7 years, it is mind boggling. Army needs are as follows. 8 lakh Rifles, 2.5 lakh Carbines, 50K LMGs, 2500 - 3000 Howitzers, 250 Self Propelled guns, 10 odd Pinaka ER regiments, 2500 - 3000 ICVs, 2000 MBTs, 1000 Sniper Rifles, 5 lakh Helmets, 1 Lakh odd night vision equipment, 7000 ATGMs, 1000 odd Helina / Bhramastra's. 4000 odd MANPADS, VSHRODS, QR-SAM, MR-SAM, 200 LUH, 160 LCH & 25 Apaches. Add ammunitions to all the weapons to it. Navy needs are to the like of 1 Aircraft Carrier, 6 SSK's, 4 SSBN's, 6 SSN's, 12 Minesweepers, 12 Missile Boats, 6 Corvettes, 200 odd Heavy Weight Submarine launched Torpedo's, 3 squadrons of Carrier based fighter jets, 124 MH60Rs, 111 NUH, 6 P8Is, Point defense missiles for Destroyers and Frigates, 50 K-5 and / or K-6 missiles, 300 - 400 Submarine Launched Long Range Cruise Missiles. Air Force needs are as follows. 6 Squadrons of MRCA, 4 Squadrons of Tejas Mk1A, 6 Squadrons of Tejas Mk2, 200 odd LUH, 65 odd LCH, 6 C-130J, 56 C-295, 6 Mid Air Refuel Aircrafts, 6 Netra's, 3 A-50 AWACS, 130 odd Basic Trainers, 100 odd Sitara's. Our Air Defense needs are as follows. Alternative for Bhio, 10 squadrons of Akash NG, 5 squadrons of ER SAM, 5 squadrons of MRSAM, Replacement for various Air Defense Guns. Coast Guard needs are as follows. 10-15 Fast attack crafts, 6-10 Patrol vessels, 20 odd ALH, 6 C-295 & 10 odd Dornier. Where is the money to buy all these weapons. This is just for the next 5-7 years or say this decade. Unless we start manufacturing 80% of our weapons at home, there is no way, we can realize regional stability and safety. We may need close to $250 - $300 billion in the next 4-5 years to buy these equipment if we rely on imports. The lost / last decade under UPA where even the allocated funds weren't used due to the allegation of corruption has lead to this condition. Not to blame just UPA, since Independence, India couldn't or Indian political class couldn't see the writing on the wall and let the defense procurement drift away. Defense PSU's should cede space to private players in the non-critical areas and they should be brought in where Indian government can't plough money for either R&D or manufacturing. PSU ship yards should adhere to modular construction and should outsource the manufacturing to Private players while they focus on design and Integration. Companies like Cummins & Tata should be tasked to develop the next generation marine engines which we import from Ukraine or US. These private players can invest in Ukraine and bring in the technology, so that we can manufacture them here and shorten the Shipbuilding cycle. Its insane to spend 11 years to build a Vishakapatnam Class Destroyers. We should target no more 4 years to build such ships.
I understand I did not include Drones and the number of weapon systems maybe wrong as well but this gives us a general idea of the problem in hand.
I understand I did not include Drones and the number of weapon systems maybe wrong as well but this gives us a general idea of the problem in hand.
It is so easy to blame the government for not spending more on defense but there are also socio-economic issues is our country and those needs to be addressed to. In the corporate world, they teach / preach the difference between Important Vs Urgent and how to prioritize each one of them. But even in great companies, the tendency to meet the goals (for bonuses) at the expense of not meeting your vision happens. Look at the problem statement and I am unable to blame this government for not trying. The whole ecosystem needs to be changed. I derive confidence in this government not because I am a fan of Mr. Modi but the way his government addresses the problem and not the symptom. I always take the example of how the NDA government started improving the Railway Infrastructure in the last 6 years and not announce new trains during every budge from Bihar and West Bengal as it was the case in the successive governments since the 90's (including the Vajpayee government). They are working on line doubling, electrification, new lines, conversion to Broad gauge and Dedicated Freight corridor with very few newer train services. I do agree that they introduced new / efficient / modern coaches / locomotives but did not burden the existing choke points with more trains. Hence the problem in hand with respect to the antiquated weapons are going to go away anytime soon. It will take another 10 - 15 years of sustained process improvement and mindset change across all concerned parties (Govt, MOD, Brokers, DRDO, Private sector, Defense PSU, Armed Forces) to buy into this idea of Athmanirbar Bharat and put our efforts towards getting there. I only wish that the Indian Janta give Mr. Modi another term in 2024 to continue his work and cleanse this deep rooted problem at the root to ensure a Safe & Secure Bharat.
The IAF plan was to buy 126 Rafale in 2012, start receiving 20 every year from HAL from 2017 onwards. And then exercise options for 63 more by 2020, and finish production of all 189 before 2027. In the meantime, the IAF would have bought at least 40 more jets at the minimum from France as a separate contract if necessary for parallel induction.
Simultaneously there would be inductions of LCA, a second MRCA and FGFA, starting after 2020. The plan was to have 123 LCA in the Mk2 version and initiate another tender for 126 jets with single engine, and also 200+ FGFA starting from 2020 and total numbers would have been well over 350, counting MKI replacement in the 2040s.
So that was the IAF's glorious plan. But all this was planned based on an 8-9% GDP growth. So now you know why all of this didn't work out, apart from a whole host of other reasons like, HAL failed to be a good partner for Rafale production, ADA delayed LCA FOC by many more years than expected, so GoI delayed Mk2 development, the second MRCA tender started and ended in the same year (replaced with MRFA), and the Russians were very late with the development of PAK FA, which kept pushing the date of induction of FGFA forward by many years.
Basically, the IAF planned to get all 42 squadrons by 2027 back in 2010. With 200+ Rafale, 200-300 LCA and MRCA and 100+ FGFA, they were well set on achieving that on paper. The IN also had a plan of operating 100-150 modern fighter jets by 2030. Their plan was to have a 400-aircraft air wing by 2030, including 100+ modern fighters.
But after the Modi govt came to power, they were faced with two very big problems. One was the economy which nosedived after the economic crisis the previous decade, which meant we will have a lot of 20-year olds without jobs by 2020, which is the case today, which is also an existential threat to the Modi govt, since any non-Congress govt has to prove itself by delivering economic growth. Second would be a multitude of separatist movements which are gaining in strength due to the inaction of the 10 years of UPA, the rise of social media, and with the financial backing of our enemies. Jobless youth and separatist movements are the two biggest threats to India today, not Pakistan and China. Without managing these two problems first, the govt is unlikely to focus as much on the military, save for emergency imports like the 36 Rafales and S-400, until their next term. Defence spending has increased in absolute terms, but not yet to the level that was expected and that was needed.
I support raising money through loans for defence spending. Which is why I had recommended buying tanks from Japan for the mountains at extremely cheap interest rates. But I think the govt finds it expensive to pay the interest for many years. Not to mention, our external debt is not healthy, so taking more will negatively affect our economy due to higher interest rates, our sovereign rating will take a hit. I think the govt is only interested in taking external debt for productive purposes. It's also a matter of national pride after the shame we experienced in 1991.
Actually it's due to lack of synergy than anything else. Parrikar also pointed out the same thing. MoD and MoF are not always on the same page. For example, it took some time for them to accept the change to LCC instead of unit cost in tenders. The most famous victim of this was the MRTT tender.
And then there's the unpredictable nature of the Indian economy. It's because the govt plans for something when the budget is finalised in Feb every year. But, by the end of the year, things wouldn't have gone to plan, like cost escalation in previously funded projects, increase in interest rates and erratic monsoon, so budget expectations would change and MoF ends up declining certain programs in order to balance the budget.
Probably the first image of Elbit Targo II HMDS onboard Indian Air Force Dassault Rafale F3R.
The photo is of Dassault Aviation test pilot, Jeremy "Luke" Dantung and clicked during a test flight of the airframe in France.
(Login • Instagram)
The photo is of Dassault Aviation test pilot, Jeremy "Luke" Dantung and clicked during a test flight of the airframe in France.
(Login • Instagram)
The Pakistani air force is wary of the Rafale's stealthy capabilities and the meteor's range. The rules of engagement for Indian pilots have changed significantly, as have those of the Pakistani QRA.
PAF fears Rafale ambush cautions forward bases
PAF fears Rafale ambush cautions forward bases
same. Maybe a probleme with my proxy or VPN or....
https://****/paf-fears-rafale-ambush-cautions-forward-bases/#more-241024
with "i d r w . o r g" instead of "****"
You get 8 Rafale each able to fly 350 h during one month or 1000 h by year continuously. Which means that for 1 month you can have 4 Rafale in the sky at all times, i.e. 8 Meteor and 16 MICA patrolling permanently along the LOC. Not so bad.
I'm sure only 2 F35 would have caused you a reaction of full euphoria....
F35 will only 55% disponibility, able to be supersonic just few minutes, not FOC, unable to fire a moving ground target, waiting the 3F software (oh shit, not the 3F with "F" for Final, but now we have to wait 4.0 software... LOL ) to be fully combat ready....
like many members here i too am enamored by the f35 and unable to understand why we created a hurdle in the form of a big ' overhyped' s 400.would have been much better if we had purchased f35 along with thaad/patriot ,it would have given us breathing space to work on our indigenously system. we could have ended up with the best plane in asia.it simply doesn't make sense to purchase a 4.5 gen plane in nearly the same price as that of a 5th gen plane in the name of strategic autonomy ,when ur entire lift capacity is due to usa plane,engine of lca.......I'm sure only 2 F35 would have caused you a reaction of full euphoria....
F35 will only 55% disponibility, able to be supersonic just few minutes, not FOC, unable to fire a moving ground target, waiting the 3F software (oh shit, not the 3F with "F" for Final, but now we have to wait 4.0 software... LOL ) to be fully combat ready....
taking nothing away from rafale,will it stand a chance against f35 in bvr,kindly explain without any bias . genuine querry and willing to learn /accept.