Dassault is able to ramp up production at 3/month without more investment and the current production rate is 2/month but the problem is the decrease not the increase so they will do that if they have to stay at 3/month for minimum 3 years.
Rafale DH/EH of Indian Air Force : News and Discussions
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To sustain a 3/month line, Dassault is going to need a lot of non-Indian orders, since future Indian orders are expected from an Indian line.
It obviously depends on Rafale's export prospects.
Among M2000 operators, Peru can't buy Rafale. Egypt has bought whatever they can, and it may not go beyond that. Taiwan is all American now. Brazil's out of the picture with SAAB. Greece is broke. Qatar may possibly double their orders, but I think they have already decided to go for more American instead. So that leaves only the UAE.
Switzerland and Malaysia are rays of hope.
With the F-35 gone, I think Turkey is a very good prospect, as long as French-Turkish relations are fixed, but they will want their own line if they go for large numbers. And some other fringe countries would be Vietnam and Indonesia post 2025, but I think selling them jets through the Indian line will make it a much better prospect, so it won't help the French line.
Finland is a long shot. Canada is impossible. Both will go American. As will most European countries.
Most other potential Rafale operators would rather choose Gripen because of operating costs.
Defence Minister, IAF chief to visit France to receive first Indian Rafale fighter plane
India
Updated Aug 21, 2019 | 20:01 IST | ANI
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and IAF Chief BS Dhanoa will receive the first aircraft from the French authorities near the plane manufacturing plant in Bordeaux.
New Delhi: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and IAF Chief Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa are scheduled to receive the first Rafale fighter jet manufactured by French firm Dassault Aviation for India on September 20.
"As per plans, a large Indian contingent led by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh is being sent by the Central government to accept the Rafale plane in the third week of September," Defence officials told ANI.
India has signed a deal with France for the acquisition of 36 Rafale combat jets from France, which will start arriving India from May next year.
Defence Minister Singh and the IAF Chief will receive the first aircraft from the French authorities near the plane manufacturing plant in Bordeaux.
Defence Minister, IAF chief to visit France to receive first Indian Rafale fighter plane
India
Updated Aug 21, 2019 | 20:01 IST | ANI
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and IAF Chief BS Dhanoa will receive the first aircraft from the French authorities near the plane manufacturing plant in Bordeaux.
New Delhi: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and IAF Chief Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa are scheduled to receive the first Rafale fighter jet manufactured by French firm Dassault Aviation for India on September 20.
"As per plans, a large Indian contingent led by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh is being sent by the Central government to accept the Rafale plane in the third week of September," Defence officials told ANI.
India has signed a deal with France for the acquisition of 36 Rafale combat jets from France, which will start arriving India from May next year.
Defence Minister Singh and the IAF Chief will receive the first aircraft from the French authorities near the plane manufacturing plant in Bordeaux.
Defence Minister, IAF chief to visit France to receive first Indian Rafale fighter plane
If we go for additional 36 aircraft directly from France, then we may not have a Rafale line in India. The total will be pegged at about 90 aircraft or five sqns of 18 aircraft each. The order for these 36 was always in the offing as we had chosen two bases for Rafale and IAF normally stations two sqns of a type at one station.
It doesn't seem that the Gov has will and resources to close very big deals anyways. So instead of getting nothing, its better to get 36 Rafales, 18-42 Su30MKI , 20-30 Mig29s , and then hope that reforms will give some impetus to our desi projects.
IAF still insists they need 200-250 Rafale class aircraft. So if it's not Rafale, the remaining requirement will have to come in from a different twin engine aircraft.
You forgot Mk1A. That's going through for sure, considering the Mig-21 exit.
MKI numbers may get boosted by 40 jets this time, considering the potentially failing Jaguar engine deal. Or we may see IAF only ordering 8-10 only.
Thos 20-odd Mig-29s are practically attrition replacements in some ways.
I don't have high hopes for MK1A tbh.
It would now be more pragmatic to actually buy 100 F21 or Gripen in SE role simply.
While MKI and Rafale shoulder the high end heavy duty works.
I am very sure that additional orders for Mig-29s and more Su-30MKI sqns have reduced the overall Rafale orders. The money saved from Rafale will help us go for super Sukhoi upgrade and also more squadrons.
LCA will remain the main SE fighter of the IAF. The 27th Feb engagements have shown to IAF the true capabilities of Su-30MKI and they want the upgrade to start asap to bring it at par or excel Rafale.
Actually the additional MKIs have not reduced Rafale requirement. The IAF has already pointed out that MKI and Rafale requirements are indepdenent of each other. Half the CPFH, twice the sortie rates, 30 hrs vs 9 hrs maintenance downtime etc, which puts Rafale in a different class.
And Mig-29s being ordered is too low. Need 100-200 to be a true replacement, not 20+. Which anyway defeats the purpose of getting a non-Russian aircraft because the Russians will then start doing exactly what Honeywell did with Jaguar. The Russians were a non-starter for a Rafale-equivalent induction from the very beginning. That $40M MKI upgrade program will become a $120M program the very next day, with a take it or leave it attitude, which will be followed up by, "If you use non-Russian equipment on MKI, we withdraw certification", because politics is now more important.
With the failure of FGFA, there is another chance for Russia to sell PAK FA to us as a direct import or just license production. If even that fails, then the Russians are going to get aggressive with us when it comes to existing deals and political support, they have done this before. It will be stupid on our part to give them new ammunition for that purpose. This is also one of the reasons why the Sukhoi spares and upgrade facilities are being built in India, the Russians may not be a good supplier 10 years down the line.
And with Jaguars losing their importance, we will become a Russia-heavy fighter force, which is a deadend proposition.
Diversification is the agenda here. So the only acceptable aircraft that can replace Rafale would be Typhoon, SH, F-16 or Gripen. Not MKI, not Mig-29/35, and definitely not the Su-35.
Cons:
Typhoon is too expensive and under-developed.
SH and F-16 are American. F-16 is single engine.
Gripen has critical American import, which puts at risk as much as 500 aircraft, with LCA and MWF sharing the same engine. Single engine.
So the choice is obvious. Rafale, Typhoon or SH. The IAF is not going to accept anything else other than these three.
36 more will come, we have the infrastructure for it, and are desperate enough to go for it immediately. Even more so with the Jaguar saga.
As for MMRCA deal for 114 jets, the main clincher is Dassault will have an operational assembly line and some production with the 2nd order of 36, so it's easy enough for them to win it as well.